tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post444569864498118029..comments2023-12-21T23:44:40.324+13:00Comments on Maui Street: Here today, gone tomorrowMorgan Godferyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16151402259122819244noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-6799913179661452522011-10-14T18:24:00.741+13:002011-10-14T18:24:00.741+13:00There is only one poll I would trust and that is H...There is only one poll I would trust and that is Horizon. The other polls exclude a 30% don't know vote, and they don't compare results to what the elecorate is. My only criticism is that they are slightly skewed to the right in their methodology which is online.<br /><br />Anonymous June 4: Support for Mana is weak in the South, correct but that does not mean the Maori Party is strong there. The strongest candidate in Te Tai Tonga is Rirokatene of Labour.<br /><br />Most likely scenario is the Mana and Maori candidates attack each other and let Labour come through the middle.Ross Calverleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13810489752054963588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-11401863507422167292011-06-04T19:21:48.482+12:002011-06-04T19:21:48.482+12:00Not sure about the polls they can say anything wha...Not sure about the polls they can say anything what i know however is that the support for the Maori Party is strong especially in the south, my question would be, where are all these people going to go after the election? when the Maori party is still in governemnt and the mana party has maybe one Mp on the sidelines , my observations are that the party cannot survive past Hone it has no infrastructure it has no funding it is attracting academics and a few others but who will do the work who will organise outside of Te tai Tokerau and how are decisions made and policies decided other than HONE SAYs a fly by nighter party such a shame the Maori party will of course welcome them back and they will return.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-55529864708316085432011-05-18T01:45:58.986+12:002011-05-18T01:45:58.986+12:00"Remember, if Mana are polling 2.3% with a ma..."Remember, if Mana are polling 2.3% with a margin of error of say 2%, then we are really saying that we are 95% confident that Mana are somewhere between 0.3% and 4.3% support."<br /><br />NO NO NO! Stated MoE applies at 50% but gets progressively smaller the further you get away from 50%!peteremcchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02675527971846060507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-38599960796227946122011-05-17T16:41:33.755+12:002011-05-17T16:41:33.755+12:00Hi Brunette and BB,
I completely forgot about you...Hi Brunette and BB,<br /><br />I completely forgot about you guys - sorry. When I wrote this post I only had left bloggers in mind. I need to keep in mind that the Maori Party isn't, in a conventional sense, a left party and can move across the political spectrum and thus enjoys support from the right as well. <br /><br />Hi bradleun,<br /><br />You are right re Horizon polls. I tend to take their polls as a general indication of what way the wind is blowing rather than an accurate statement of the electoral math.Morgan Godferyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151402259122819244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-65823325056780622082011-05-17T16:34:11.120+12:002011-05-17T16:34:11.120+12:00Anon - There are a few writers over at Roarprawn. ...Anon - There are a few writers over at Roarprawn. Roarprawn is a well known supporter of the Maori Party. And we post pretty much every day - on thing s Maori, and Maori fisheries issues. We really enjoy Maui Street. We like Marty Mars as well and he is a permanent link on our site. We dont necessarily agree with all they say but we certainly enjoy reading their contributions.tinahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05678596231212774001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-77577374189705067382011-05-17T15:55:46.802+12:002011-05-17T15:55:46.802+12:00As if other political commentators don't have ...As if other political commentators don't have political leanings; just take a look at Matthew Hooten, David Farrar or Chris Trotter! Roarprawn - I took a look at your website and see if you haven't posted anything in ages and no-one follows what you say. I think Morgan your reading of the situation is correct and keep up the good analysis!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-24768231755184085112011-05-17T14:26:46.271+12:002011-05-17T14:26:46.271+12:00Yes, I am pro-Mana and everyone knows it - but I&#...Yes, I am pro-Mana and everyone knows it - but I'm not voting Mana nor I am doing any work for them. <br /><br />Horizon doesn't use dubious methodology, internet panel polls are less reliable, but the validity of their results largely stands. Having said that I don't put much faith in a single pollster attempting to poll Maori voters. They always get it wildly wrong.Morgan Godferyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151402259122819244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-59164152390460954732011-05-17T14:18:17.573+12:002011-05-17T14:18:17.573+12:00To paraphrase something Richard Prebble once said ...To paraphrase something Richard Prebble once said to Matt McCarten - your support is like the support of a hangman's rope round my neck! Morgan, you are openly and massively pro-Mana party, so please don't deny it. It's okay to support Hone, just don't deny it.<br /><br />Brad Luen is right - Horizon Polls have such a dubious methodology that their results are very dubious.<br /><br />@ Dave - United have consistently had less than 1% in party support for years, so they don't have any significant support to give to Te Mana party, or to anyone else ;) Horizon should have realised that before putting their foot in their mouths.<br /><br />When looking at poll results for Maori electorates specifically, we have to be very careful about the polling methods, samples sizes, and non-response rates. Remember, if Mana are polling 2.3% with a margin of error of say 2%, then we are really saying that we are 95% confident that Mana are somewhere between 0.3% and 4.3% support. <br /><br />That's when we realise that media reporting of polls is usually kinda shallow ;(<br />m.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-32991877785813625562011-05-17T13:18:43.631+12:002011-05-17T13:18:43.631+12:00We over at Roarprawn have always supported the Mao...We over at Roarprawn have always supported the Maori Party. http://roarprawn.blogspot.com/2011/02/hone-time-to-go-bro.htmlbustedblondehttp://roarprawn.blogspot.com/2011/02/hone-time-to-go-bro.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-8806466223307361172011-05-17T10:38:58.114+12:002011-05-17T10:38:58.114+12:00Bradluen, Horizon explicitly said that a small pe...Bradluen, Horizon explicitly said that a small percentage of the Mana Vote was from United Future. You missed that.davehttp://www.big-news.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-42189451407964616272011-05-17T10:31:17.047+12:002011-05-17T10:31:17.047+12:00Hi Morgan, a couple of points. (1) You shouldn'...Hi Morgan, a couple of points. (1) You shouldn't put too much credence in the Horizon Poll, which is based on a non-random sample. (2) If you do believe the Horizon Poll, then the three major sources for Mana's vote are (in order) the Maori Party, Labour, and the Greens. There doesn't seem to be a huge group of people who chose not to vote last time but intend to vote this time, for Mana or otherwise. According to Horizon's numbers, the Maori Party have lost *most* of their voters from last time, but have compensated by picking up voters from National and Labour. Personally, I find this hard to believe.<br /><br />If Mana does hit 3.5%, I think the breakdown will be something like 1% from the Maori Party, 1% from Labour, 0.5% from the Greens, 0.5% from other parties, and 0.5% from non-voters last time.bradluenhttp://bradluen.posterous.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-28514513328249919142011-05-17T09:44:47.014+12:002011-05-17T09:44:47.014+12:00Now that the Labour foreshore and seabed act has b...Now that the Labour foreshore and seabed act has been redrafted and namechanged to suit the Maori Party, they no longer have a mandate for anything.<br /><br />So now they need a new flagship policy to take back to the electorate for continuing support and i'm afraid a policy of just being anti-Harawira isn't going to cut it.<br /><br />time for the axe to fall.pollywoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01295990157397125661noreply@blogger.com