tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post7278993776601503216..comments2023-12-21T23:44:40.324+13:00Comments on Maui Street: How the Maori electorates fellMorgan Godferyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16151402259122819244noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-50435760642141452432011-11-28T22:12:36.369+13:002011-11-28T22:12:36.369+13:00At the Taneatua booth Annette won 67 to Te Ururoa&...At the Taneatua booth Annette won 67 to Te Ururoa's 53 and Louis 25. At the Ruatoki North booth Annette won 32 to Te Ururoa's 29 and Louis 15. <br /><br />Here's the link:<br /><br />http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/pp_stats_index.htmlMorgan Godferyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151402259122819244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-77257537257662040432011-11-28T21:42:45.155+13:002011-11-28T21:42:45.155+13:00You mention that Taneatua and Ruatoki voted for An...You mention that Taneatua and Ruatoki voted for Annette, can you point out where we can view those results from election day.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-46448787458678839472011-11-28T12:51:29.192+13:002011-11-28T12:51:29.192+13:00What's up with the whanau in Ruatoki. They'...What's up with the whanau in Ruatoki. They're progressive one minute and regressive the next.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-47349513671434855862011-11-27T14:50:51.724+13:002011-11-27T14:50:51.724+13:00Te Tai Tokerau:
Digipoll – Hone 42
...Te Tai Tokerau:<br /><br />Digipoll – Hone 42<br /> Kelvin 35<br /> Waihoroi 20<br /><br />Actual – Hone 43<br /> Kelvin 38 <br /> Waihoroi 16<br /><br />Fairly close resemblance between the poll and the actual results in this electorate. Certainly within the margin of error of 4.9% so we’ll give them this one. <br /><br />Tamaki Makaurau: <br /><br />Digipoll – Pita 58<br /> Shane 23 <br /> Kereama 14<br /><br />Actual - Pita 40<br /> Shane 36<br /> Kereama 16<br /><br />The poll grossly overstated Pita Sharples’ support. This poll was well out. However, it did seem to confirm what many Maori political commentators were thinking. I haven’t seen anyone come up with a satisfactory answer as to why Shane did so well. Maybe low turnout hurt Pita. With 16% of the vote Kereama Pene certainly did. <br /><br />Hauraki-Waikato:<br /><br />No poll from Te Karere on this electorate but the Marae Digipoll from September put it like this. <br /><br />Digipoll – Nanaia 59<br /> Angeline 18<br /> Tau Bruce 13 <br /><br />Actual – Nanaia 59<br /> Angeline 22 <br /> Tau Bruce 17<br />A decent result from the Marae Digipoll. They correctly stated Nanaia’s support were thereabouts with Angeline and Bruce Mataki of the Maori Party. Remember this poll did not factor in undecideds. <br /><br />Waiariki:<br /><br />Digipoll – Te Ururoa 56<br /> Annette 22<br /> Louis 22<br /><br />Actual – Te Ururoa 43<br /> Annette 40<br /> Louis 25<br /><br />Again, this poll was well out. Well beyond the margin of error. The poll overstated Te Ururoa’s support by a country mile. This race was bloody tight – not the cakewalk the poll was predicting. <br /><br />Ikaroa Rawhiti:<br /><br />There was no Te Karere poll here too, but we’ll have a look at the Marae Digipoll results.<br /><br />Digipoll – Parekura 40<br /> Na 49<br /> Tawhai 1<br /><br />Actual – Parekura 62<br /> Na 24<br /> Tawhai 14 <br /><br />Wow. I don’t think any poll in the history of mankind has ever been this out of whack. However, it should be remembered that this poll was conducted in September and they phrased the questions oddly. Something like “which party will you give your candidate vote to” instead of saying “which candidate will get your party vote” or something like that. <br /><br />Te Tai Hauauru<br /><br />No Te Karere poll here either. However, Marae Digipoll from September comes in handy. <br /><br />Digipoll – Tariana 49<br /> Soraya 40<br /> Fred Timitimu 1<br /> Jack (didn’t register I don’t think).<br /><br />Actual – Tariana 48<br /> Soraya 30 <br /> Fred 8<br /> Jack 11<br /><br />Tariana’s support was about right, but the poll exaggerated Soraya’s support and barely even factored Fred Timutimu. Jack McDonald didn’t even feature in the Marae poll but polled 11% and he wasn’t even going for the electorate vote. <br /><br />Te Tai Tonga: <br /><br />Digipoll – Rahui 46<br /> Rino 35<br /> Dora 10<br /> Clinton 9 <br /><br />Actual – Rahui 31<br /> Rino 42<br /> Dora 15<br /> Clinton 8<br /><br />Again, way off. Well outside the margin of error. The poll got Clinton about right, but failed miserably in predicting the correct outcome and share of the vote. <br /><br />The polls in the Maori electorates have failed. Theses poll failures follow the Native Affairs Baseline poll which failed to accurately predict the share of the vote each candidate would receive in the Tai Tokerau byelection. I don’t think I can ever take a poll on the Maori electorates seriously again. To be fair, the polls were conducted late October to mid November and things change at the last minute. Polls are, of course, snapshots of a moment in time. The moment these polls were picturing was spread across a significant period of time. <br /><br />Lastly, I think the other criticisms I have made of polls in the Maori electorates still stand.Morgan Godferyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151402259122819244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-24575059997160567132011-11-27T13:21:18.793+13:002011-11-27T13:21:18.793+13:00So how 'off' or 'on' were the Te K...So how 'off' or 'on' were the Te Karere Dingle Polls?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com