tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post7875866549607498156..comments2023-12-21T23:44:40.324+13:00Comments on Maui Street: Initial thoughts on the byelection resultMorgan Godferyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16151402259122819244noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-80409675789541070782011-07-02T10:05:04.470+12:002011-07-02T10:05:04.470+12:00I think its reasonably simple: Whaea Tariana, desp...I think its reasonably simple: Whaea Tariana, despite all the hoha korero about her from the Harawira whanau, decided that seeing Labour win would be an even greater defeat for the Maori Party, so kneecapped Matua Solomon by endorsing Hone, and consequently handed a large proportion of his support to Hone. Hugh - the poll was pretty accurate in predicting Kelvin's level of support, so it would be hard to draw that whakaro from the result.Peternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-5373414756307678842011-06-29T12:08:42.847+12:002011-06-29T12:08:42.847+12:00Congratulations Morgan, you called it. Who knows,...Congratulations Morgan, you called it. Who knows, maybe it was the landline-less who swung it for Hone after all?DPF:TLDRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06372937855256319716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-127290714411673392011-06-28T15:37:25.772+12:002011-06-28T15:37:25.772+12:00Excellent analysis and you should seriously be con...Excellent analysis and you should seriously be considered to provided analysis leading up to the General Elections on the Maori vote; because we already know that National and Labour will both suffer crushing defeats, lose many seats and Winston will come thru the middle to become the next PM; why will this happen because it has already been prophesied..!! Good luck on the next electionsMarama Waddellhttp://facebook.com/?ref=home#!/pages/Mana-Rangatahi-ki-Whangarei/1208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-75146272119599902582011-06-28T13:01:44.368+12:002011-06-28T13:01:44.368+12:00REALLY??. I reckon if Waihoroi Shortland stood as ...REALLY??. I reckon if Waihoroi Shortland stood as the Maori Party candidate Labours loss would of been greater. Labour failed BADLY. They threw everything @ this campaign & had all the resources but still didn't improve on their last total. My husband, our boy & I walked the whole of Kamo posting MANA mail and as I was putting them in the mailbox I could see Kelvin Davis Labour pamphlet, posted of course!! We did it & we WON on LOVE, KOHA & MANA COMMITMENT because we understood the kaupapa & what HONE stands for. US.<br />p.s I should become a political "talk s**t person cos I lot of them don't know what they're talking aboutAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-66416607705171922612011-06-27T21:12:34.765+12:002011-06-27T21:12:34.765+12:00Excellent read! Thank you for posting this.Excellent read! Thank you for posting this.Melhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12639996265221560733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-33254404909636666672011-06-27T16:25:45.536+12:002011-06-27T16:25:45.536+12:00@Graeme, lol. So true.@Graeme, lol. So true.Morgan Godferyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151402259122819244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-22932013192276841052011-06-27T16:10:34.292+12:002011-06-27T16:10:34.292+12:00Actually Morgan the Native Affairs poll wasnt that...Actually Morgan the Native Affairs poll wasnt that far out at all. Kelvin was on 40% and he got 41% and Hone and Solomons result were only 2% outside the margin of error. The poll said 3 things 1. Hone was ahead but only just, 2. it was a 2 horse race and 3. The Maori Party werent in the running. Given it was taken 3+ weeks before the election and before Tariana cut Solomon loose it was actually spot on. Polls are not meant to be a numerically perfect predictor of elections but rather and indicator of voting trends, which it did very well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-56455010376388505342011-06-27T15:12:29.188+12:002011-06-27T15:12:29.188+12:00http://news.tangatawhenua.com/archives/12293
It wa...http://news.tangatawhenua.com/archives/12293<br />It was only on June 7 that Rawiri was saying it was a three way race, and suggesting Labour was third.<br />He only changed his views when the poll came out, so cant say he was spot on.<br /><br />Agreed with his view though that when the poll came out showing hone leading by 1, Hone was going to win by 5 to 10, his supporters were more motivated. <br /><br />I thinks Labours turnout strategy in West Auckland works much better in general elections, as it just works as part of the general electorate turnout strategy.Lukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10017512698807481683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-29261103267989838672011-06-27T14:59:08.235+12:002011-06-27T14:59:08.235+12:00The most indepth and insightful review of the byel...The most indepth and insightful review of the byelection so far. Nice analysis.CrownRetrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05035311037190115768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8687643215117543088.post-27737120761547572422011-06-27T14:33:24.957+12:002011-06-27T14:33:24.957+12:00.Bomber may not appreciate being called 'mains....Bomber may not appreciate being called 'mainstream' :-)Graeme Edgelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03928755583921638414noreply@blogger.com