A few quick thoughts:
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Big ups to Native Affairs winning best current affairs show at the Aotearoa Film and Television Awards. Native is the most intelligent, in depth and watchable current affairs show in NZ. No bells and whistles, just straight current affairs. Native is also one of the few Maori TV shows that cross the cultural divide. Be sure to watch the Tai Tokerau debate on Native tonight at 9.30.
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Shane Jones and Pita Sharples went head to head on Q&A yesterday. Sharples stressed his party's achievements including getting 200 people working on community gardens, no joke. Shane ripped Sharples point apart saying change for Maori must occur at a macro level. Sharples recovered to point out that to make a long term difference resources must be invested in education and this is where the Maori Party has done well, apparently. Paul Holmes cornered Shane with a question on the retirement age. Mana and the Maori Party have outflanked Labour and promised to reduce the Maori retirement age to 60. Shane initially attempted to deflect the question, but eventually highlighted the transitional payments system which he implied could be extended to Maori. Shane concluded, quite skilfully in my opinion, and shifted the focus to increasing Maori life expectancy. The interview ended with Shane rightfully identifying his “dim prospects” of leading the Labour Party. The panel said the debate was too even to call and I largely agree. If it went to any side I think it weighed only slightly on Shane’s.
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Marae Investigates covered the Maori electorates with Rawiri Taonui, Maria Bargh and Willie Jackson. All three called Tamaki Makaurau for Pita. Willie Jackson pointed out that Pita is campaigning well at the moment. Rawiri thought Labour’s lack of Maori policy is hurting Shane – a point I made last week.
The panel thought Nanaia was safe. I agree. Angeline Greensill came painfully close at the last election. However, this year it’s a three horse race. Angeline will have to share the non-Labour vote with Bruce Mataki of the Maori Party. The door is wide open for Nanaia to increase her hold on the seat.
Ikaroa-Rawhiti was, correctly in my opinion, called for Parekura Horomia and Te Tai Hauauru for Tariana Turia. These two seats are going to be wide open when Parekura and Tariana retire next term.
Waiariki was next. Rawiri Taonui pretty much endorsed Annette saying of all the Maori standing in this election he wants to see Annette make it to Parliament. Willie reckons she would do well in Parliament. However, both men did not think she would win. A fair call, but inconsistent with what I have called. Willie pointed out that the “tikanga” is tough on wahine in the electorate. Most readers will know what he is referring to.
On to Te Tai Tonga and Maria said “Hurricane” (Clinton Dearlove) will storm Labour’s vote. Willie was on the right track when he disagreed and said Dearlove will steal Maori Party votes and hand the seat to Rino as a result. This is a point I made after the Te Tai Tonga debate.
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Finally, there is a Te Karere Digi-poll coming out today on the Waiariki race. I think the poll will be make or break for Annette. The poll needs to show Annette within a reasonable distance of Te Ururoa or her supporters will, more likely than not, see it as a lost cause and stay home. Annette’s campaign depends on a lot of variables. Most of all I have decided it depends on how many young Maori enrol and mobilise on the day. I sense the old people here in Waiariki are still backing Te Ururoa and are still attracted to the image and the thought of the “Maori”, stress on “Maori”, Party. The young are overwhelmingly, no almost exclusively, backing Annette.
Te Ururoa 56%... Lou 22%... Annette 22%...If your right...looks like her supporters will, more likely than not, see it as a lost cause and stay home.
ReplyDeleteThe panel thought Nanaia was safe. I agree. Angeline Greensill came painfully close at the last election. However, this year it’s a three horse race. Angeline will have to share the non-Labour vote with Bruce Mataki of the Maori Party. The door is wide open for Nanaia to increase her hold on the seat.
ReplyDeleteI don't claim a particular insight, but won't Angeline and Nanaia also have to share the non-Maori Party vote and Bruce and Nanaia have to share the non-Hone/Mana vote?
Just as in the TTT by-election, some people were saying that Kelvin could win because the non-Labour vote would be split between Hone and Solomon, while others were saying Hone would win because the non-Hone vote would be split between Kelvin and Solomon. Is there a particular reason you think this seat is Labour vs the Rest, rather than Mana vs the Rest or Maori Party vs the Rest?
Oh no not another self-serving landline-ringing Te Karere or Marae diddle poll. They are both a source of information and a source of influence; they've gone from carrying the news to manufacturing it. Well I guess so are the outlets controlled by Fairfax, Packer and Murdock & Co. Nothing like another rigged outcome to make supporters 'give up' and 'stay home'.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, here's my prediction. In my depression, I consulted the stars, the tea leaves and the experts - Johnny Walker, Jack Daniels and Jim Beam.
Te Tai Tokerau - Hone will increase his majority.
Waikato - the flax roots will have enough of the corruption in Tainui and Angeline will steal it this time.
Tamaki - chickens come home to roost for Pita, handing victory to teh Minista of Pr0n, Shane Jones.
Waiariki - Even though the people in Kawerau, Te Teko, Edgecumbe, Whakatane, Taneatua, Ruatoki and Waimana in the EBOP don't have land-lines and will still be moping about the polls, they say, "Fuck it, I'm going to vote anyway." This hands the electorate to Annette in a very close race.
Ikaroa - Backlash against iwi elite and laurel-resting gives the electorate to the Mana Party or Maori Party. Even though it's true Parekura hasn't done anything wrong, it's also true Parekura hasn't actually done anything - fullstop. Trade-training almost seems like a regression - back to they days when they banned the professions at Te Aute College ... and after National gets in - a new underclass of trade-trainees will emerge.
Te Tai Hauauru - Tariana first, Te Awatea second. As misdirected as she is, she has lots of support. But when she leaves that seat is going to Mana.
Te Tai Tonga. Who was that masked man? Dearlove! People are still talking about him. I shat on him when I first heard he was selected. I was like: "OMG - Who the **** is Clinton Dear ******* Love?" He's made a lasting impression, enough to win over many new supporters.
Morgan Godfery on his blog Maui Street states
ReplyDelete“On to Te Tai Tonga and Maria said “Hurricane” (Clinton Dearlove) will storm Labour’s vote. Willie was on the right track when he disagreed and said Dearlove will steal Maori Party votes and hand the seat to Rino as a result. This is a point I made after the Te Tai Tonga debate.”
Hey Morgan, would it not be prudent to acknowledge that “Hurricane” (Clinton Dearlove) will take votes off the Greens, New Zealand First, Maori, and Labour Party. Remember the Greens and New Zealand First are only running a party vote campaign in the Te Tai Tonga.
Hey Morgan how about backing your story-telling with some data, or at least some logical reasoning if possible.
Please try and explain the following?
Te Tai Tokerau 2008 Labour Party vote 45% latest poll 27% a drop of 18%
Tamaki Makaurau 2008 Labour Party vote 49% latest poll 32% a drop of 17%
Waiariki 2008 Labour Party vote 51% latest poll 28% a drop of 23%
The average 2008 Labour party vote in the Maori seats was 49% the latest poll average is 29% a drop of 20%.
In the Te Tai Tonga in 2008 the Labour Party vote was 49% and the 2008 Labour candidate vote was 40% a drop of 9%
In the Te Tai Tonga in 2005 the Labour Party vote was 57% and the 2005 Labour candidate vote was 45% a drop of 12%
The average drop in the labour candidate vote was 10.5%.
Therefore based on the 2008 party vote result of 49% less the latest poll average drop in support for labour of 20%, the likely result would have the 2011 Labour Party vote at 29%.
However when factoring in the fact that the Labour candidate receives less candidate votes than party votes.
29% less 10.5% leaves Rino Tirikatane with a likely result in the 2011 election of only attracting 18.5% of the Te Tai Tonga candidate vote.
You may think you're making a fancy point, but you're not. You identify a valid trend, but you do so without reference to what's happening on the ground. I'm really getting sick of Maori Party hacks coming on here and, more often than not, arguing their poor points inarticulately and without reference to authority.
ReplyDeleteHere's why Rino will win:
http://mauistreet.blogspot.com/2011/10/te-tai-tonga-lowdown.html
http://mauistreet.blogspot.com/2011/11/native-affairs-kowhiri-11-te-tai-tonga.html
Morgan, on the ground does that mean Wellington, because on the ground would mean the whole electorate. Name recongition look at the demographics cus does not support the theory. Cus how come when all the political commentators and univeristy proffesors said we would not have a pan maori political party in 2003. I went sgainst the sheep mentailty and in 2003 predicted the creation of the Maori Party in 2003, and once formed and looked at there direction predicted exactly where we are today. So since you are just a boy, and a second year law student wow..grow up.
ReplyDeleteExactly where we are today.... You mean declining? On your last legs? Out of steam?
ReplyDeleteWellington is the battleground. Rino will easily hold the vote Mahara received in the south. To win Rino, or Clinton, need to peel back Rahui's lead in Wellington. I've analysed the numbers and this is what the story is. Either Rino or Clinton will do this and Rahui is toast as a result.
And who are you btw?
ReplyDeleteThe quicker maori throught the motu learn that MANA will ALWAYS be in opposition the BETTER!!! - they will NEVER be able to enforce their unrealistic policies!!! All tht MANA has done is divide maori, " so do we go maori party or Mana"??? - get this party out of here before it drags the maori party down and we end up with no maori voice in parliament... I wish voters would not fall for the mana this and that they are trying to promote, bkuz WAKE up the whole party is away with the patupaiarehe, and is destined for NOTHING! All there rhetoric they use is bullshit and the kowhiri debates showed that!
ReplyDeleteIt's better to have no voice than to have the fake Maori Party pretend to represent you. They represent the rich kneegrows. I voted for the Maori Party and didn't expect much but for them to hold their integrity yet nothing was what I got. Now they come calling for my vote again cos they want to get back in to 'represent Maori'. But fuck them and their lackies on here. They can eat shit and die.
ReplyDelete