I’m suffering from cognitive dissonance. I know – I feel – that Meka’s going to win. The momentum is with Te Hamua, though.
John Minto isn’t wrong to write that “most pundits are picking the seat as Labour’s to lose, on the ground the feeling is very different. If I was a betting man I’d put money on Te Hamua to win”. Mana Poneke has been and is knocking on doors and discovering that most households are committed to voting for Te Hamua. I’ve received several emails (thank you) arguing that I’ve misread the electorate. Maybe I have.
Byelections turn on, well, turnout. That’s where Labour’s at an advantage. The future is micro-targeting. Labour gets that. Micro-targetting requires 1) knowledge of who and where your voters are and 2) the right messaging.
As bad as Labour’s messaging has been (“we will organise, mobilise and terrorise”), the party knows who and where its habitual voters are. Even putting terror and immigration comments aside, Labour and Meka are still at a messaging advantage. Meka can credibly frame herself as the successor to Parekura’s legacy and she can position herself to inherit the affection that Parekura earnt.
Requesting a copy of the electoral roll with the names and addresses of every person enrolled in Ikaroa-Rawhiti – as I believe Mana, the Maori Party and the Greens do - is is an exercise in hit and miss. Political campaigns are about the allocation of scare resources. Sending your human resources on door knocks that don’t guarantee a political return can be wasteful. Having said that it appears that Mana has a good hit rate.
However, on the issues, the field is even: jobs, housing and health and local issues like empty state homes in Maraenui, erosion on the East Coast, oil exploration in Dannevirke and school closures in Gisborne favour no one.
I might be horribly wrong (wouldn’t be the first time) and this election might not depend on turnout at all. I’m open to people sharing their experiences on the ground. The comments section is open.
Kia ora Morgan. Well I think Te Hamua is going to win, but it will be close. I live in Flaxmere and we have seen nothing but MANA flags everywhere. Meka isn't well liked and the people out here have never seen her before this election. She keeps banging on about being the CEO of NKII but that counts for little around here because they have always stuffed things up. The voters here also feel let down when our man, Henare O'Keefe missed out, so they are backing Te Hamua. The feeling on the ground is anti-Labour, especially when they claim that this is a Labour seat - it isn't, it was Parekura's.
ReplyDeleteMana definitely have a presence. I'd be interested to know how active Hone has been in the electorate? He is Mana's best asset, after all.
DeleteMorgan, you have previously spoken highly about Meka, and yet I am really blown away by all the comments here. Why do you think she will be a good MP? She seems to be everything that Parekura wasn't. Your comments will help me decide who I will vote for.
DeleteI agree. It's not a Labour seat and never has been. It was Parekura's seat. While much has been said about the main candidates, I still don't see our next Ikaroa MP. We want an MP to lead our people and represent t our interests in parliament.
DeleteMeka is experienced. A top public servant, a top aide in Parekura's office and the CEO of Ngati Kahungungu. Arguably an ideal candidate for the post-settlement Maori world. Although she underperformed in the Native Affairs debate, I think it was the weight of expectation that pulled her down. Expectations weren't managed.
DeleteMy politics are closer to Marama, I think, but the it's a strong field. Na is strong. Te Hamua is real. Meka knows the political process. Parliament can be like running up the guts against a brick wall. You need to know how to step it. I think Meka does.
Thank you Morgan. Do you know her personally? I ask, because she looks good on paper, but judging by some of the comments on here, and different things that I have heard, I'm not sure if she is the best person to follow Parekura.
DeleteI don't. Parekura was his own man and there isn't anyone who can fill his shoes (or no one I know of at least). The Native Affairs debate this Monday might help you make up your mind.
DeleteSure, both Maori Party and Mana have been doing door knocks. They've both learnt from previous elections tho, and being more strategic in their door knocks - not a blanket approach. They are both micro-connecting so to speak, not enough funds to micro-message tho like Labour.
ReplyDeleteFrom what Ive seen, Labour are the only ones to do a blanket brochure drop to all households.
I disagree, Meka wont win. She has the Labour machine behind her, but on face value voters are not that impressed when they see her in person. Word of mouth taking hold.
Its a battle between Maori Party and Mana to win. Both have the personalities to win. Te Hamua more aggressive than Na and got the youth vote. Na has got the older vote.
Greens have stalled, good start, but Marama has not been visible or noticeable as much as Na or Te Hamua.
That's what keeps coming though. People haven't been impressed with Meka in action/in person. In the first Native Affairs debate she underperformed. She needed to smash it, but Na, Marama and to a lesser extent Te Hamua came off looking like future MPs. Do you really think, though, that it's a battle between Mana and the Maori Party rather than Mana and Labour?
DeleteI’m considering the Sharples factor too, he’s Kahungunu, Te Aute and respected – people are supporting Na because of Sharples.
DeleteThe Labour machine is not what it was – Clarke and Parekura unbreakable. Shearer is unknown and apart from today, has hardly been supporting Meka. And like one of the other responses said, there’s a backlash against Meka by Henare O’Keefe supporters. Combine that with Meka not so flash on the personal front, Labour are struggling.
I agree with these comments about Labour, but disagree when it comes to the Maori Party. Most people don't like the leadership coup and don't like it that the Maori Party are supporting the Government.
DeleteI live in the Hutt and have only seen the MANA party. They knocked on my door, enrolled other members of my whanau, gave us info on Te Hamua - and told us where and how to cast advance (early votes). You can't beat the face to face as far as I'm concerned. We're all voting Te Hamua.
ReplyDeleteMorgan, it's a race between Mana and Labour, not Mana and the Maori Party. The Maori Party are being regarded as irrelevant and are too damaged over their relationship with the Nats - just look at the latest dead rat Te Ururoa has had to swallow and he then shook the hand of the Nat MP who made him swallow it! Marama has been impressive in the debates, but too many people don't understand her and see her as an academic. So for my money, it's a two horse race.
ReplyDeleteI agree. This is a race between Labour and Mana. The Maori Party's days are numbered because of their internal ructions. I was a staunch supporter of the Maori Party, but they have lost their way. The baubles of office have consumed Dr Sharples and Te Ururoa (gambling bill wated down) has shown his true colours. The Greens don't have a good record on Maori issues. Yes, they have a lot to say, but when push comes to shove, they don't know how to balance tikanga and Maori aspirations with environment policy. The sad thing is that neither Meka or Te Hamua are want we need in Ikaroa Rawhiti.
DeleteWhat are some examples of tikanga and Māori aspirations not being balanced in Green policies?
Deleteae tika tou.Wairoa was visited by Hamua and had heaps of locals around him.folks haven't seen a politican around town for ages.it was great to see him cos kids recognize him from t.v.
ReplyDeleteI didn't want to vote on popularity I wanted an MP who can get things done, then I heard Hone speak about the smoking coalition, feed the kids and now the housing policy. Mana have shown they are good thinkers and hard workers. That hasn't been Labour. Labour threw up two billboards of Meka on one roundabout down here and even put up billboards on Petone Esplanade even though it's out of electorate because its a major roadway but it's Mana whose knocked on our door, been down the mall, come to our mahi and marae - Labour plenty money but no clue, just absent. Insulting really. All we can ask is that whoever is our MP is hard working with an ear and heart for the people. we're voting for Te Hamua and Mana.
ReplyDeleteJust picking up on the comment about Marama apparently not being visible.
ReplyDeleteIt's disappointing that mainstream media has largely ignored the campaign and that Māori news media have provided very little on the substantive issues for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti.
Of course Marama has been campaigning in the electorate all day and into the night every day but the media haven't been interested, perhaps the Greens are not considered to have a realistic chance in a Māori seat? In some ways that's a self-fulfilling process. Having said that, everywhere she goes there are heaps of people saying they are voting for her, particularly wāhine.
Mana have done a great job of mobilising their people, Labour have the sheer momentum of their legacy and I think Māori Party will struggle to get much support because of their relationship with National and a lack of a clear succession plan. Greens haven't had a big presence in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti in terms of branches and members, but have a good reputation for supporting hapū, particularly around petroleum protests and awa rehabilitation.
Marama has issued ideas and media releases pretty much every day on policy/kaupapa: http://www.greens.org.nz/advancedsearch?tid=All&tid_1=All&tid_2=420&type=press_release&keys=&created%5Bmin%5D=&created%5Bmax%5D= and almost none of it has been picked up. Instead the media do general follow the candidates around and talk about everything except policy.
The Mana housing policy got some good coverage today - it's great to see they seem to support the Greens housing priorities and policies, though I think the Progressive Ownership proposal put forward by the Greens is going to be more achievable and deliver better results for affordable housing for those who most need assistance to get into home ownership as it keeps the properties in the affordable housing market. And strengthening tenants rights is another essential policy.
I really hope that media focus more on the kaupapa, because while Māori voters obviously care about personality, their main concern is the kaupapa; grinding poverty, joblessness and environmental degradation. Whānau on the ground have responded so positively to Marama because she hasn't just been all talk, she actually has solid policies and plans to be able to achieve change in Parliament.
Disclosure: I am in Marama's campaign team
I agree that the media have done a terrible job at covering the by-election. There was more coverage of the lead up. The limited coverage that We have seen has lacked rigor and substance.
DeleteMeka will not win the seat because she wasn't the people's choice. You can ask anyone who attended the Labour selection hui who was the strongest and most preferred candidate and they will tell you - it wasn't Meka. Sadly, Te Hamua also isn't the strongest candidate, but he will win, because of the anti-Meka vote.
ReplyDeletePeople have totally underestimated Te Hamua profile he is really famous its like getting Billy T James to run as an MP. He is backed by Hone Harawira who says the things people don't want to hear but need to be said. Its a decisive victory for Te Hamua followed by Marama.
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect, we don't want a comedian. We want a person who will be able to influence good policy at the Cabinet table. Te Hamua is not that and will never get that opportunity, because National and Labour have already ruled out working with Mana.
DeleteLabour have not ruled out working with Mana
DeleteThis was reported in 2011. I haven't heard Shearer change Labour's position, but I stand corrected.
DeleteNational and Labour have ruled out working with Hone Harawira's new Mana Party. The MP for Te Tai Tokerau launched the party at the weekend and plans to force a by-election. Prime Minister John Key says he will not work with Mr Harawira now, or after November's election. Labour leader Phil Goff says the Mana Party is welcome to support a Labour Government, but Mr Harawira will never be in a support arrangement with Labour because he is unreliable.
David Shearer reversed that position and has indicated he can work with Hone.
DeleteI agree Mana will win and Labour will lose. I am constantly hearing on the ground that she is not confident and proud to stand as the first Maori lesbian leader for Ikoroa. Having her brother on the select panel did give her a unfair advantage over the other candidates.I wonder if the other members on the selection panel felt intimidated and did not vote to what the electorate really wanted. What David Shearer said “we will organise, mobilise and terrorise” Is that what happened during the selection process? and is it still happening?
ReplyDeleteI've voted Labour all my life. I voted for Parekura. I'm now having to rethink who I'll vote for, Meka Whaitiri hasn't given me faith, she was CE but still didn't unify our iwi. Na is a lovely man but that National relationship is like asking us to accept the scraps from a dog that is trained to maul us.Te Hamua, nice guy but can he deliver politics, the housing thing is good, maybe he can. And who is the green person, never seen her in our tribe, on our marae, or working among our people and hear she's from Auckland, might have whakapapa here but never been a ringa raupa for our iwi. Still undecided.
DeleteBeing quite outside the electorate, I am surprised that there seems to be so much support (gathering from the above comments) for Te Hamua rather than Meka.
ReplyDeleteLike you, Morgan, I had thought this would be a pretty easy win for Labour - and the closest thing I have to insight, iPredict, reflects that. Meka is sitting on $0.92.
Hamua is trading at about $0.07 (I bought a bunch of these!).
Ultimately, I'd be disappointed if Meka loses (because she's clearly the most intellectually competent candidate - and the best positioned to affect change for that constituency), but being an Electorate MP requires having a good rapport with the people. A shame if she can't establish that.
It would be really great if commentators gave their names - have the courage of conviction to own your opinions, claims and criticisms.
ReplyDelete:)
Why?
DeleteHere's a little bit of Marama being visible with some of the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti whānau (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bam3cnbutqk), plenty more examples of her being very visible around the rohe on her www.facebook.com/VoteMaramaDavidson page.
ReplyDeleteKia ora!
:)
By the way, I wish we would not comment anonymously on forums like this. We should own our whakaaro, and declare our interests and political positions if we have any..
ReplyDeleteBecause I'm pretty sure I'm not the only party political person commenting here.
DeleteMy Thoughts:
ReplyDelete- I am not sure who will win but I reckon the most likely scenario is a two horse race between Mana and Labour.
- If Mana wins it will really announce their arrival as a major political movement to supplant the Maori Party rather than a single MP party (which NZ has too many of already).
- If the Maori Party come last out of the four main contenders (and it's a possibility) then it would be a real nail in the coffin for the party which is already struggling with relevance.
- I can see Marama and the Greens winning from this byelection even if she doesn't come first. It's less about this specific seat and electorate and more about emergence of the Greens as a major player in Maori politics. If Marama comes second or even a convincing third ahead of the Maori party then it is a great platform, both for her to arrive in parliament in a high list ranking in 2014 and for a big jump in the Green party vote in the Maori electorates (and additional Green Maori list MP's off the back of that)
I still think the most likely result is a Labour win, but it would be stupid to rule out an upset (byelections have produced surprising results in the past and the Maori electorates have been fluid). Mana has to supplant the Maori Party as the independent Maori voice in Parliament if it wants to survive and thrive post-Harawira.
DeleteAfter reading these comments I await with interest the outcome of the vote.I will say though the Maori party could be in deep trouble if they do not do well and it would indicate what a lot people have being saying they are nationals puppets.
ReplyDeleteInteresting take - but I think it'd be easy to get lost in the beltway clamor for an upset. You're right about Meka's campaign approach (though I wouldn't call it micro targeting) in that her support is on the ground, not behind a keyboard. It'd be interesting to read some analysis about the online presence of the candidates and the way the online polls have gone down: I don't live anywhere near IR but I've been the target of promoted FB posts from Te Hamua and Marama, so it's hard to judge what their reach is on the Coast.
ReplyDeleteBy-elections do turn on turnout, but this isn't a Left - Right split so it doesn't fit an ordinary high/low turnout analysis. I still think a high turnout will benefit Meka, because I think the people who have felt the middle-low earner squeeze will be the most motivated group of new voters. It's my guess that jobs are the real motivator for that group - that's something Meka has the credentials and Party positioning to deliver.
Morgan, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on how the candidates are performing with 18 - 24s. Mainstream media have gone straight to Te Hamua, but I find that pretty shallow. My Auckland political friends are fans of Marama, and in the time that I've been involved I've never seen a better response from a group of school kids than the ones Meka gets.
Kia ora e hoa,
DeleteSorry to reply this late (exam period and all).
Mana's online operation is strong. Significantly, they have the ground game which is its equal. Gerard Hehir (formerly of the Alliance Party and now part of Unite union) is the party's data man and a more than capable one (though I don't know if data man is the correct term). I know from personal experience that Mana Poneke has been active in the Hutt, Wainuiomata and other parts of the electorate. Te Hamua's base is in the Tai Rawhiti region, though. I'm skeptical that Te Hamua's popularity will translate to votes. He's in a strong position to win second place which - considering the circumstances - is a win. Mana needs to displace the Maori Party and beating the party in IR is the first step.
In my circles, Marama is the first choice. Though that's more of a reflection on my friend group than the electorate as a whole. Te Hamua might have a street feel, but the primary concern is jobs. I think it's patronising to assume that Te Hamua has street credibility and that that translates to votes among young people. I think IR is more sophisticated than that.
As I thought, no one has a clue which way this will go so they are heavily indulging in wishful thinking. Dangerous in many situations because that is how elections get stolen but I'm sure that won't happen here.
ReplyDeleteIf I had a vote in this by-election I'd vote for Te Hamua, but I don't & my concern is that political noobieness might let Mana down.
The poor & dispossed often promise to vote for a candidate & their situation usually helps them see things with a clearer eye than others. Trouble is that come voting time, life (the need to survive it) gets in the way. Day to day priorities take over & since voting doesn't give immediate relief many will be too distracted to do the one thing which could really help themselves.