Native Affairs Review: Ikaroa-Rawhiti debate

In some ways it was a debate for the party hacks. The candidates stuck to their scripts. Marama strongly emphasised Green policies and principles - think sustainability and innovation – and didn’t shift further. Meka riffed off of her experience in iwi and the public service. Labour policy was light. Na stressed at the table narratives and Te Hamua relied on his street credibility. There was very little for the undecideds.

I'm not going to pick a winner, but here are some thoughts. 

Marama

She didn’t let herself get pushed over. There was a tussle (with Mihi) over whether or not sustainable jobs are realistic, but Marama held her ground. I wasn’t entirely convinced, but Marama didn’t concede an inch.

On other issues, though, Marama scored clear wins. On the marijuana question Marama demonstrated the most depth. Marijuana is and should be a health issues, not a criminal issue, and Marama argued the point well. 

The Ikaroa-Rawhiti race is a platform for Marama and the Greens. Partly an attempt to announce the Greens arrival in Maori politics and (hopefully) a springboard for Marama to enter Parliament off of the Green Party list. Marama, Metiria Turei and our mate Jack Tautokai McDonald have been active in Maori politics. After the byelection the Greens can credibly claim that they are committed to kaupapa Maori politics and a credible alternative in 2014. 

 

Te Hamua

He’s funny, right?

Humour aside, Te Hamua ran the most consistent message: I’m you, you are me – I’m real. He owned that narrative too. Each candidate emphasised their relative strengths, e.g. Marama highlighted the strong position the Greens will be in in the next left-leaning government, however Te Hamua argued his strengths the most convincingly. He was the “B.R.O”.

I imagine the brothers in Kaiti were most impressed with Te Hamua. That’s a strength. Maori political engagement is woeful. Politics doesn’t serve them and isn’t seen to serve them. Politicians (with some exceptions, think of Parekura) can be detached from the experiences of the poor and marginalised. Te Hamua isn’t.

But politics is more than that. I felt that Te Hamua was the weakest candidate on policy. He ran hot and cold. Substantive and focussed questions were his weak point.

Meka

She needs a big push. Any residual momentum is lost.

Meka found herself on the back foot. She is the leading candidate, but despite entering as the favourite she didn’t use that position to her advantage. The leading candidate should have been controlling the agenda, instead Meka was responding to it.

Having said that, possibly unfairly and the comments section is open to those who want to discuss it, Meka revealed a little fire. She smacked down Te Hamua after his ‘I still shop at the Warehouse’ speech arguing that Parliament requires an MP with the smarts. Meka was right, Parliament is a labyrinth unless you know how to navigate it, but talking down to Te Hamua won’t wash with the 18-24 demographic. The key demographic (if they turn out, which is unlikely).

It wasn’t until the last segment that Meka found her footing. She closed well (she had the most convincing political closing). The other highlight was the foreshore and seabed and the Urewera raids. Meka owned up to it. She admitted it was a mistake. She was responding to a question on honesty and, in owning up to the mistake, demonstrated more honesty than many Labour MPs before her. 

Na

For the most part, Na did great. Arguably a technical win on points. He doesn’t excite me though. As much as he attempted to divorce the Maori Party from National I didn’t accept it. The Maori Party is in a confidence and supply agreement with National, two Maori Party MPs hold ministerial warrants and a select committee (with a National majority) just gutted one of the party’s best members’ bills. That gutting was met with meek acceptance.

Na also fell into a trap. He accepted Mihi’s framing of the Maori Party as the party of the right in Maori politics. In accepting that framing, Na legitimised the argument that a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National. He slammed that suggestion in the first segment of the debate, only to implicitly accept it later. A tactical low point in an otherwise strong performance.

Oh, with the exception of the casual xenophobia. Na argued that migrant worker jobs should be transferred to Maori. No. Just no.

That aside, Na was strong on Parekura’s legacy: bringing people together. He also answered well on most questions. He seems like a great guy and has deep knowledge of local issues.

Maori TV

Mihi and Jodi were great. But what's most interesting is how Maori TV has changed Maori politics. Maori politicians are more accountable and the Maori electorate is more informed. The Maori electorates are no longer marginal games in far off parts of the country. Instead, the Maori electorates are becoming an increasingly important part of New Zealand politics and political discourse.

Meka will win Ikaroa-Rawhiti: discuss...

I’m suffering from cognitive dissonance. I know – I feel – that Meka’s going to win. The momentum is with Te Hamua, though.

John Minto isn’t wrong to write that “most pundits are picking the seat as Labour’s to lose, on the ground the feeling is very different. If I was a betting man I’d put money on Te Hamua to win”. Mana Poneke has been and is knocking on doors and discovering that most households are committed to voting for Te Hamua. I’ve received several emails (thank you) arguing that I’ve misread the electorate. Maybe I have.

Byelections turn on, well, turnout. That’s where Labour’s at an advantage. The future is micro-targeting. Labour gets that. Micro-targetting requires 1) knowledge of who and where your voters are and 2) the right messaging.

As bad as Labour’s messaging has been (“we will organise, mobilise and terrorise”), the party knows who and where its habitual voters are. Even putting terror and immigration comments aside, Labour and Meka are still at a messaging advantage. Meka can credibly frame herself as the successor to Parekura’s legacy and she can position herself to inherit the affection that Parekura earnt.

Requesting a copy of the electoral roll with the names and addresses of every person enrolled in Ikaroa-Rawhiti – as I believe Mana, the Maori Party and the Greens do - is is an exercise in hit and miss. Political campaigns are about the allocation of scare resources. Sending your human resources on door knocks that don’t guarantee a political return can be wasteful. Having said that it appears that Mana has a good hit rate.

However, on the issues, the field is even: jobs, housing and health and local issues like empty state homes in Maraenui, erosion on the East Coast, oil exploration in Dannevirke and school closures in Gisborne favour no one.

I might be horribly wrong (wouldn’t be the first time) and this election might not depend on turnout at all. I’m open to people sharing their experiences on the ground. The comments section is open.

Te Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election will affirm that Māori democracy is strong, diverse and dynamic

E tipu, e rea, 
Mo ngā rā o te ao; 
Ko to ringa ki ngā rākau a te Pāhekā,
Hei ara mō tō tinana.
Ko tō ngākau ki ngā taonga a o tipuna Māori,
Hei tikitiki mō tō māhunga.
A, ko tō wairua ki tō Atua, 
Nāna nei ngā mea katoa. 
Tā Apirana Ngāta, Mema Pāremata mō Eastern Māori 1905 - 1943

This Te Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election has basically only just begun, with the all the contesting parties  having had their candidates selected by this Monday. But already the massive and highly visible involvement and engagement in the democratic process has been impressive. It shows that democracy is thriving in Te Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, and that is somewhat reflective of the Māori seats across the country. It is clear that whānau are taking their democratic choices seriously, more seriously than in many general seats. They are getting behind their whānau and their candidates and supporting them in what are daunting roles. The high calibre of all the selected candidates is a testament to the talent of the people of Ikaroa-Rāwhiti.

The massive engagement in the political process has been clear in many iconic images of the last week. Probably the best example of this was the huge Labour Party selection hui in Taradale. Hundreds attended. In recent years most parties have had declines in membership, so to see the enthusiastic support at the hui for their candidates is fantastic. It is so good that Meka Whaitiri got the job, she will be a great candidate for Labour. But what the media, especially the mainstream media, must realize is that there have been equally impressive starts to the campaigns of all the other parties that are contesting the by-election.

Some of these issues in this post have been raised by Morgan at The Daily Blog and others but I wish to share with you my views on this whole process.

The Māori Party announced their candidate, Na Rongowhakaata Raihania early and got on the campaign trail with him almost immediately. This is just what they needed, a strong display of unity at the start of the campaign. And it's genuine; they are fighting for their voice to be heard in the political spectrum. I am against many of their votes and actions, but we should credit them with playing an important role for Māori in Government. The National Government stirs a lot of anger among our people including myself, but I wouldn't deny the Māori Party's unique position and genuine representation.

The Mana Party has also had a strong start to their campaign. I'm of the view that Te Hamua Nikora is a star candidate. I have heard him in a few radio interviews over the past few days and seen him on TV; he has done well. He has been strong in his affirmation of seriousness and genuine concern for his people of Te Tai Rāwhiti. He has experienced hardship, success and been an inspiration to many young people. His comedy and entertainment only add to his skills, though his style may put off a few, he is an ideal candidate for Mana. I think that Mana and the Greens in particular will get a lot of young people inspired to enroll and vote. The relative freshness and youth of theses parties and their support bases to that of Labour is pretty stark. The photos and messages of support for Te Hamua seem to be coming in from across the country and from Australia are heartwarming. These sorts of issues should be canvassed more in the media, so that we don't all get endlessly told the line that Labour's got it in the bag. It is perfectly fine to say that they begin as front runners, but I really don't think that it's true that the by-election was won in Labour's selection meeting.

And of course the Greens have made a brilliant move in selecting Marama Davidson as their candidate for the seat, which this post goes into more detail about. She is another star candidate. It has pleasantly surprised many, and is a reflection of the growing support for the Greens among Māori. Marama will be able to use the big increase in Māori support for the Greens at the last election as a base to launch off and make even more significant gains. As a male feminist, I see the Greens as being a party that fully embraces and supports mana wāhine. Meitiria Turei as co-leader is the best example of this but other examples include the wahine toa Green MPs both Māori and Pākehā like Denise Roche, Catherine Delahunty, Jan Logie and Mojo Mathers. The Greens have more women than men in Parliament, 8/14, and they have been the strongest advocates of women's rights in Parliament. The entrance of Marama Davidson on to the Green political landscape significantly adds to this factor. The huge enthusiasm from within the Green Party and from Māori activists and voters for her candidacy will act as a platform for the rise of the Greens in Māori seats across the country.

The popular opinion among commentators and the media is that Labour is certainly going to win it and then it becomes a battle for second place. In my mind the high calibre of all the candidates proves otherwise. The fresh and widespread involvement in all parties proves otherwise. The deep felt views about issues such as oil drilling, child poverty and Te Tiriti issues will prove otherwise.

The Māori Option will also be an important factor. I know that many Labour and Green supporters are on the general role, so highlighting the option of moving over to the Māori role will be crucial for their campaigns. I acknowledge that money and party infrastructure is also always important, but the level of commitment from all parties that has so far been displayed will be continued on with during the campaign. This by-election comes at a seminal moment in Māori politics, the choices are all unique and there is strong support for all parties.

I may well be proved wrong on election day, but in my mind this Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election will affirm that Māori democracy is strong, diverse and dynamic. This campaign has the potential to inspire and engage, it has already done so. Marama Davidson, Meka Whaitiri and Te Hamua Nikora all stand a chance of winning this campaign and taking up the seat as representatives of their people. Even Na  Raihania stands an outside chance, despite the apparent decline of his party. I think the vote will be very split, and that the best candidate will come out on top. The result will give good momentum to the winning party for the Māori seats in the 2014 general elections, especially if they are one of the smaller parties.

At the end of the day, every enrolled Ikaroa-Rāwhiti voter will get to exercise their democratic rights in  the voting booths of their communities. They will be able to decide for themselves, after the hoardings and facebook banners go down, who best represents their convictions, their dreams and their aspirations for their whānau. I hope that they look beyond the history of voting in their whānau to ascertain for themselves who will be their best māngai in our House of Representatives in Te Whanganui-ā-Tara.

It is often taken for granted that we even have this most basic of rights, but we must always remember that in many parts of the world indigenous peoples can only dream of the robust, dynamic and democratic nature of our Māori politics in post colonial New Zealand society.


Post by Jack Tautokai McDonald

An update on Ikaroa-Rawhiti

The race for Ikaroa-Rawhiti is taking shape. Let me trace the contours:

Mana

With scarce resources and limited time Mana needed a name candidate. I think that’s why Te Hamua edged out Leon Hawera. Although Leon offered a better political mind (apparently), Te Hamua offered name recognition and street appeal.

Low turnout out will work against Mana, Bomber’s right to argue that it’s a race for second place. To win the momentum Mana needs to supplant and be seen to supplant the Maori Party as the independent Maori voice.

Te Hamua needs play off of his street appeal (the “Haati Naati” stuff). If he can do that effectively turnout will increase (I assume) and so too the chances of snatching second place. For his sake I hope he backs off any talk of marijuana.

The Maori Party

Na Raihania carries himself well, but that’s not enough to win. He was gracious and able in 2011, but the structure of the electorate hasn’t change - overwhelmingly Labour.

The Maori Party is running to win. The party needs to build momentum off of their budget wins and the byelection is the platform to do so. The problem, though, is that the party’s narratives are vulnerable. The ‘at the table’ argument is easily undermined against the ‘under the table’ narrative. In other words, the party can point to their wins, like $34m in new funding in budget 2013, but that is nullified against the context, $34m represents less than 4% of new funding in budget 2013.

Add to that inferior branch operations (in comparison to Labour at least) and the mana and affection Parekura had earnt (that will mostly flow to the Labour candidate) and the Maori Party seems better off going for silver.

The Greens

The Greens are serious about the Maori vote. Good. Standing demonstrates that their commitment to kaupapa Maori is more than rhetorical.

I wouldn’t have a clue who they have in mind, Manu Caddie is happy in local government, but I’d caution against parachuting in Metiria Turei. She’s more than capable, but without strong whakapapa connection it’s difficult to win legitimacy.*

The Greens role in the byelection will be, I think, to keep Labour honest. In the race for second place (i.e. between Mana and the Maori Party) there is a chance that Labour will gallop through the middle of a clear field. That’s not healthy and that’s where the Greens will be most important.

Labour

The byelection will be won or lost in the selection hui. Four candidates have stepped forward: Hayden Hape, Henare O’Keefe, Meka Whaitiri and Shane Taurima. All four are capable of winning the seat. The smart money is on Meka and Shane.

Hayden Hape is capable, but the indications are that he isn’t ready and lacks the recognition that the other three enjoy.

Henare O’Keefe is a legend. With local government experience (as a Hastings District Councillor) and a deep commitment to Maori (he’s fostered hundreds of kids over two decades), Henare is hard to bet against. However, without networks in the party he can’t and won't win selection. Winning selection is mostly about political manoeuvring, the strength of your CV is secondary.

Shane Taurima suffers from the same problem: a lack of networks in the party. The difference between Shane and Henare, though, is that Shane knows how to play the selection and is being well advised. He has leveraged off of the media and is signing up new members too. Aside from running a smooth operation, Shane's communication skills and wide whakapapa connections are his biggest assets.

Meka offers wide whakapapa connections as well, although her central strength is her iwi experience. Arguably an ideal candidate for post-settlement Maori society. Meka is signing up new members and is well advised too. Shane is a favourite, but Meka is more of a favourite (if that makes sense). She is a better sell on the ground and Shane - whether justified or not - is perceived to be a candidate that the Labour leadership is attempting to parachute into the electorate. That perception might be fatal if Shane is selected.

Lastly, if you want to be the first to find out who the winning Labour candidate is you can sign up here.

Final thoughts

This is a dry run for the Maori seats in 2014. An upset win is possible, but falls well short of being probable. Labour can win by default. The mana and affection that Parekura had earnt will fall to the Labour candidate. High turnout and the introduction of a strong Green candidate could fracture Labour’s vote and push their winning margin to the edge. Possible, but not probable.

*Turns out I was wrong on that one. See the comments.