Refusing to budge on marriage equality

Hone Harawira is refusing to moderate his stance on marriage equality, or at least that’s how he came across on Radio Rhema (the Christian radio station). In a revealing interview Hone claimed to have never voted for something he didn’t believe in. When questioned on what’ll happen when his personal view clashes with Mana’s view, Hone was unclear.

Well, Hone can’t afford to be unclear. He’s on record as saying that the movement is bigger than he is. This seems to suggest that he’ll follow any decision the party makes. However, saying that you’re unsure what will happen in the event of a clash seems to suggest that Hone’s backing away from his indication to vote according to the party position. Like I said last week, the Maori Party provides an excellent case study what happens when you ignore your members.

I think Hone will have to cave. After all, there isn’t a split within the Mana Party. There is a split between Hone Harawira and the Mana Party. On marriage equality Hone’s view is divorced from the Mana Party’s view. Some Mana members, or Hone apologists, are attempting to write off the issue as unimportant. Others are claiming marriage is not a Maori concept and, therefore, unimportant. This ignores the fact that marriage, although a western concept, is one that the huge majority of Maori adopt. Therefore, Maori are invested in the issue. Furthermore, the Mana Party is more than just a Maori party. It’s a radical party too, in other words an anti-discrimination party, and cannot claim radical status while upholding marriage discrimination.

Most interestingly Hone claimed never to have voted for something he didn’t believe in. This is admirable, but not a practical stance for a leader of a parliamentary party. After all, Hone isn’t in Parliament representing himself – he represents Te Tai Tokerau and the Mana Party. Hone is obligated to follow the party line even if he doesn't agree. Any actions otherwise legitimise the Maori Party's claim that Mana is really the Hone Party.

I support Hone Harawira and I support what the Mana Party stands for, but on marriage equality Hone is being regressive and I don’t support his position or his justifications. Lastly, Hone’s opposition to marriage equality makes this gesture to the gay community look hollow. A cynic would say Hone’s position reaffirms this gesture to Destiny Church.

Native Affairs Kowhiri 11: Tai Tokerau review

I don’t have too much to say about the Tai Tokerau debate on Native Affairs. The three candidates, Hone, Kelvin and Waihoroi Shortland, were pretty even. If forced to pick a winner I’d go with Kelvin. Yes, Kelvin not Hone. Hone was certainly the most authorative, but Kelvin was the most articulate. He focussed firmly on Labour policy without peppering his answers with useless rhetoric. Yes, Hone and Waihoroi were guilty of providing meaningless, read useless, answers. However, I think the criticism that Kelvin is too “wooden” is well placed. This may have something to do with Kelvin remembering his lines too well and he comes across as scripted. I tend to think, or I know from personal experience, that that’s just how Kelvin is. To me it makes no difference.

Having said the above, on a strict points decision the night probably belongs to Hone. Hone speaks well off the cuff and he knows better than anyone how to connect with Maori on a personal level. One thing Hone does well is use colloquialism without taking away from the authority of his message. Maori, well New Zealanders actually, like their politicians to speak like them. That’s part of the appeal of John Key. Where Americans appreciate soaring rhetoric New Zealanders enjoy understated and familiar language. Hone understands this. Many New Zealand politicians are guilty of trying to be like Obama.

Waihoroi was strong in parts and weak in others. He did well to highlight the Maori Party’s role in securing funding for treating rheumatic fever in the north. Waihoroi is much better in te reo than English. He suffers from the problem many fluent Maori speakers suffer from – they speak English like they speak te reo. English is not meant to be spoken in the same manner as te reo. I’m nitpicking here, but one of the problems fluent Maori speakers have is that they can be too verbose. English is about simplicity whereas Maori is often about heavy metaphors, animation and so on. When someone speaks English like they speak te reo the message can be bogged down and lost. This isn’t an attack on Waihoroi, he did well, this is just a general observation.

In fairness, the night was probably too close to call. But I’ll give it Kelvin for focussing on policy. Kelvin provided a template for how political discourse in this country should be run.

Hone's still the favourite

I guess the big story this week was the Baseline/Native Affairs poll. The poll has thrown a spanner in the works and smashed previous perceptions of how close the byelection will be. Common wisdom held that Hone would cruise past Kelvin and make easy work of Solomon Tipene, however this may not hold true. Assuming the poll has any validity Hone may, in fact, lose. But therein lays the crux of the issue – does this poll have any validity? In my opinion, no.

It is notoriously difficult to poll Maori electorates. Maori, especially low-income Maori renters, are transient and do not and never have had access to a landline telephone. Often times when a polling company does manage to reach a Maori household the eligible voters are not interested in talking. Many of Hone’s supporters, read low income voters, would have been overlooked by this poll. Another significant bloc of Hone Harawira voters would have also passed unseen by this poll – young people. Horizon research finds that three times as many young people are without landlines compared to the general population. I think it is safe to assume this is even higher when you examine the rate for Maori young people. Another potential problem is if the polling company relied on directory listings only when gathering data. I know of a number of whanau who do not bother with the expense of listing their number in the white pages (when a white pages listing does not come with the connection). Apparently the poll only adjusted for age and sex sampling error, but not income level. The Tai Tokerau byelection will be an election voted along class lines. Therefore, it is crucial to correct any income level bias. A poll that does not account for differences in income is then, in my opinion, unreliable at best and invalid at worst. I tend to think I-predict, where Hone is listed as having a 60% chance of winning, is more accurate at the moment.

Considering the poll had such a prominent flaw, i.e. no adjustment for income level, it was interesting to see the Mana Party was on 21% support, the Maori Party on 25% and Labour on 36%. Solomon Tipene claimed during the debate that those results are an indictment against Labour. This is partially true, Labour continues to bleed support. Remember at the last election Labour gained around 50% of the Maori vote. However, most polls, for example the Te Karere Digi-Poll, place Labour at around 35% support and the Maori Party at around 35% support. If anything the Native Affairs poll is an indictment against the Maori Party who appear to have shed more than a few percentage points to the Mana Party.  

Overall, I do not think the poll is worthless, just unreliable. I think it provides a good indication of how the voters in TTT are leaning. Kelvin’s work on the ground appears to be paying dividends, albeit overstated dividends in my opinion. Support for the Maori Party is higher than expected – even in a flawed poll – and Hone may not enjoy the depth of support that I and others thought he enjoyed.

But enough about the polls, how are things going to turn out on the day?

Many commentators are making the odd claim that Labour can out campaign Hone on the ground. This is, frankly, outrageous. It is a safe assumption to make, but it ignores the fact that a bunch of fresh faced Labour activists from Wellington are not going to go down well in the North. These guys may have experience running Grant Robertson’s Wellington Central campaign and handing out flyers for Trevor Mallard in Wainuiomata, but they do not have experience with Maori people and Maori electorates. Hone Harawira can tap nothing short of several hundred activists in the North and even a few here in Wellington. Hone knows TTT better than anyone, he knows every Marae, every whanau and every pohara corner of his electorate. In other words he knows everyone. He knows how to communicate with these people and what they will respond to. He can put more people on the ground, he can out door knock Kelvin and he knows how to grab a headline – that is something Kelvin cannot do. Mana can deploy more people than Labour, that I can almost guarantee. What Mana cannot do is piggy back off general electorate branches, make phone calls on election day, utilise parliamentary staff and resources and generally spend as much as Labour. But this counts for nothing when you have hundreds of vehicles on the road ferrying whanau to election booths, it counts for nothing when you have as many billboards, flyers and other adverts as Kelvin Davis and it counts for nothing when you are the incumbent with a strong narrative and strong base to work from.

But it must be remembered that the poll has lit a fire under the arses of Mana supporters and activists as well as their Labour Party counterparts. Both sides will be going at it hard over the next week. The Mana camp will now be scared, after weeks of cruising. While Labour will sniff the scent of victory and throw every MP, staffer and activists they can at it – and rightly so. The byelection will be won on the ground and it is a competition between Matt McCarten, Unite and Hone’s diehard supporters and Labour’s Shane Phillips/Te Pou (Kelvin’s campaign manager I think) and the Labour Party machine.

Another factor at play is whether or not the Maori Party vote holds. If it does, Hone will win. If it does not, then it depends on what direction it transfers. The conservative vote will flow towards Kelvin, however the residual tino rangatiratanga vote will flow towards Hone. In terms of the Labour Party, tino rangatiratanga is subsumed and relegated within a broader agenda. However, in terms of Mana, tino rangatiratanga is overt and central to a larger agenda. Obviously, the conservative vote will favour Kelvin – Hone is the antithesis of conservatism. Remember to that the Tory in chief, John Key, in the most overt manner possible has endorsed Kelvin Davis. Not that I think his words will affect the outcome to a significant degree, rather it is an interesting directive to the few National Party voters in the North. I wonder if Kelvin really wants the Prime Ministers endorsement?  

A number of people have asked why the Maori Party put forward a candidate in the first place, and a weak one at that. I do not think I have commented on this before so I will hypothesise now. The Maori Party needed to perform a test run before the general election. They needed to determine how a three way race would play out. They needed to know whether it would really benefit Labour. Under the surface they will be hoping that it does. Hone Harawira is a greater threat to the Maori Party than Labour ever will be. Hone plays to the same base as the Maori Party and he is, quite successfully, sucking them dry. If Hone is eliminated the Maori Party can go back to acting as the de-facto voice for Maori and the de-facto Maori opposition. At the moment the Maori Party has to share that job with Hone and in some cases concede that the job belongs to Hone. Furthermore, if Hone is no longer an MP it is conceivable that he will not have a platform to work from and launch an attack on the other Maori seats – especially Waiariki and Tamaki Makaurau. I tend to think the Maori Party are quietly hoping that they scum enough of Hone’s vote to gift the seat to Kelvin.

I stand by my prediction that Hone will win. This is consistent with what the other leading Maori political commentators are saying as well. For example Rawiri Taonui, Tim Selwyn and Willie Jackson. Hone is attracting more support, even significant support from part of the Ratana church with the church offering to campaign for Hone. Ultimately, a vote for anyone but Hone is a wasted vote and a dumb vote. The voters are always right, no doubt about it, but the voters can be dumb. Vote Hone and you get Kelvin on the list as well. Vote Hone and you get a new political party and an energised movement that serves the interests of the marginalised. Vote Kelvin and you get Kelvin – no new movement serving the interest of Maori and non-Maori who are not served. You just get Kelvin. Which in itself is not a bad thing. Kelvin is a great guy and the new face of Maori in Labour. But you only get Kelvin. Voting Hone gives the voters of TTT the best of both worlds. You get Hone, Kelvin and a new political force. Maori are strategic voters, but they are easily led and manipulated by external forces as well. You can make a Maori believe a Maori stereotype if you reinforced it. I hope the people of Tai Tokerau don’t let the bullshit get in the way of voting for change, voting for someone genuine.

As an aside, just a small spiel on who won the debate. Hone did – hands down. He knew his lines and he spoke better ad lib. Kelvin stuck firmly to Labour’s line but did not perform so well when not. Hone was clearly more experienced in the situation and less reliant on soundbites. Solomon Tipene performed better than I expected, but clearly had no experience and was not prepared. Someone should have told him to avoid mentioning National too. It was hardly a debate I should add. More a Q and A session. Julian handled the situation well and managed to control some of the more enthusiastic supporters too. You can watch it here.  

Labour and the byelection

Labour is running a good attack line against Hone Harawira at the moment. From Waatea News:

Labour MP Shane Jones says voters in Te Tai Tokerau could be set to punish Hone Harawira for jumping out of the Maori Party waka.

Mr Jones says Labour's Kelvin Davis is starting to pick up momentum, even though Mr Harawira's is clearly the most well-known name in the race.

“I do think quite a few people on the ground, those we have spoken to over the telephone or bumped into n the street, keep reminding us that the north don’t like waka jumpers. They made Tau Henare suffer. They made Matiu Rata suffer. I think that Hone and his supporters are now starting to realise that he could end up copping most of the blame for jumping out of the Maori Party waka,” he says.

Prima facie, Shane is correct. However, the circumstances with Rata and Henare were quite different. Neither of them enjoyed the same depth of support that Hone enjoys. Hone Harawira can tap a deep well of support. He has a huge number of volunteers on the ground, including experienced activists, and he retains a significant personal following. The political circumstances were different as well. From what I know Rata did not have an experienced team behind him and he was up against a powerful political machine, meaning the Labour Party, in an FPP environment. Maori voters and Maori political operators were, at the time, politically naïve as well. Rata was a part of the first wave of Maori political consciousness. They lacked the experience and the knowledge to succeed electorally. Now Tau Henare's situation is straightforward. He basically disgraced himself. He was never going to win, partly because of disloyalty and partly because he is just an idiot. Hone’s move from the Maori Party was more a result of well founded dissatisfaction with the direction the Maori Party was, or is, taking. Many Maori accept this. On the other hand, Henare defected from New Zealand First for personal and internal political reasons – not because he felt Maori were heading in the wrong direction.

Obviously, I do not think Hone’s “waka jumping” is going to have a tangible effect on the outcome of the byelection. Hone speaks well to his electorate. Kelvin does as well, for sure, but he speaks better to Pakeha liberals I have always thought. I have outlined before why I think Hone will win and, for the most part, I still stand by it. If the Maori Party was still in favour among Maori, especially Maori in the North, then Hone’s waka jumping may have come into play. But this is not the case. The Maori Party is, to be polite, disliked. Hone has won the debate too – the Maori Party are thoroughly framed as sell outs. If anything Hone is respected for leaving the Maori Party on a matter, or matters, of principle.

Having said the above, Hone has admitted he has had to explain to some voters why he left the Maori Party. Perhaps Hone’s motives and the situation itself is not as well understood as I think. But I think by and large most voters have a faint idea or at least are familiar with the narrative that the Maori Party sold Maori out with the MCA Act, the GST increase and so on.

From what I have gleaned Kelvin Davis is on something of a roll. The Labour Party is behind him and he is a great candidate. However, the fact remains that the North is Hone’s fortress. In the comments thread of this post at The Dim-Post Graeme Edgeler notes that:

At the 2008 election, there were 299 polling booths in Te Tai Tokerau. Kelvin Davis beat Hone Harawira in 19 of them, 15 of those by three votes or less. His biggest win over Hone was at Karetu School in Kawakawa by 14 votes. Hone won 89 booths by more than 20 votes, including a few by more than 100 votes.

                                                                                         

The chances of Kelvin overturning this are slim at best. Another common argument that comes up re Kelvin’ ability to win is Labour’s ability to run get out the vote (GOTV) campaigns. Get out the vote campaigns are less effective in Maori electorates. Maori are disengaged and many Maori, especially in the far North and western side of the Tai Tokerau (not including West Auckland) do not have landlines. The spread of Maori electorates also makes it harder to out people on the streets. Unlike in general electorates it is impossible to have activists on every corner. Ultimately, getting Maori to the ballot booth will take far more than a few phone calls and pamphlets. Maori in the North will vote for the person they believe in. Not the party that called them on election day. Sure, Labour can focus on mobilising Labour voters only, but I tend to think the staunch Labour vote is shallow and Hone’s is deep, but, admittedly, apathetic.  

I also wrote in the thread at the time:

Labour resources are not extensive. They may have a few more activists willing to make phone calls etc on the day, a few senior campaigners may be willing to make the trip up and hand out flyers and direct strategy and one or two local Labour branches may help with resourcing e.g. deliveries, man-power etc. I do not think it will make much of difference. Harawira can leverage off of Unite and utilise an army of foot soldiers. His biggest weakness, in my opinion, is having no access to software where he can break down the electorate. Having said that he probably already knows the breakdown.

I stand by this. But I must note that the Party is pouring far, far more resources and time into the byelection than I would have thought. Certainly Labour realises that a win may give them the momentum they need in an election year. The momentum to reclaim the other Maori seats in fact. If Hone is out of the picture then Maori politics becomes a debate between the Maori Party and Labour. Although both parties lack credibility among Maori at the moment, Labour has stronger candidates in my opinion.

All credit to Kelvin though. He is focussing on the issues. However, my understanding is that Kelvin lacks the broad knowledge that Hone has on Maori issues. Kelvin tends to focus on education, his strong point, while neglecting issues like the foreshore and seabed where Labour is weak. From what I understand Hone has pounced on this issue and, given the way the Maori Party and Labour stuffed it up, is winning the issue hands down. Both Labour and the Maori Party have no credibility on the issue, but Hone does. The F&S is also one of the big issues among Maori at the moment. I cannot stress how much of a benefit it is to Hone to win the issue by default.  

I’m looking forward to the Te Tai Tokerau debate on Native Affairs this coming Monday. The debate is on Maori TV and runs from 8.30pm to 9.30pm. Hopefully good things come from the candidates and Maori TV offer some quality analysis.

So I guess I stand by my prediction that Hone will win, but Labour are making a good case. I’m looking forward to it.

Maori Party Tai Tokerau Candidates

This Wednesday the Maori Party will select a candidate to stand against Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau (TTT). The following candidates have announced their intention to seek the Maori Party nomination:

• Mere Mangu
• Waihoroi Shortland
• Solomon Tipene

On paper, all three are strong candidates. All three whakapapa to Ngati Hine and Mangu and Shortland both link to Matawaia Marae. Perhaps the most interesting candidate is Mangu, a lawyer and retired army captain. Mangu ran as an independent in 2002 and 2005 polling second and third respectively. In 2002 Mangu outpolled Naida Glavish, a prominent Maori leader, while in 2005 Mangu managed to pull almost seven per cent of the vote. This is quite an achievement considering Mangu ran as an independent in both elections.

Shortland is best known as the host of Te Tepu on Maori TV and as “Weirdo” from the movie Boy. I think it is safe to assume that Shortland, as host of Te Tepu which is a Maori language current affairs show, has some understanding of politics and Maori politics in particular.

Solomon Tipene is the co-chair of the Maori Party’s Whangarei branch. Tipene is also involved with Ngati Hine’s treaty claim. As a Maori Party member and treaty negotiator Tipene is not a political newcomer.

Although I do not know how much support each candidate enjoys on the ground, I would tentatively select Mangu as the strongest candidate. Mangu is the only candidate with electoral experience. Although Shortland and Tipene have broader political experience, for example in political commentary, neither candidate possesses campaign experience. Mangu did well as an independent. Remember independent candidates do not have access to party resources, including activists and admin support, independents also lack association with an established brand, struggle to attract media attention and find it difficult to tap donors and volunteers. With this in mind Mangu’s achievements, especially in 2002, are respectable. Having said that, a certain amount of baggage comes with losing two times. But that aside, Mangu has campaign experience and, according to Maori Party vice-president Ken Mair, a “strong profile” on the ground.

Ultimately, I do not think it matters who the Maori Party selects. Hone Harawira will win and Kelvin Davis will poll second - assuming ceteris paribus. For my take on the byelection see this post.   

           

Why Hone will win

Let’s be clear. Hone Harawira will win the byelection (assuming he forces one). In this post I want to discuss why.

But before we can examine why Hone will win, we need to understand why he is forcing, or more accurately intends to force, a byelection. Firstly, Hone intends to use the byelection as an early election year platform. A byelection will, theoretically, provide four weeks of sustained and intensive media coverage. Hone can use the byelection as a platform to launch Mana Party policy and project the party’s values, image and so on into the public consciousness. A byelection will also allow the Mana Party to direct public discourse on Maori issues and working class issues. The Mana Party is now the de facto opposition to the Maori Party (Labour barely rates a mention) and will hope to serve as the de facto opposition on working class issues during the byelection. Ultimately, the Mana Party intends to cement their place in political discourse i.e. advocates for Maori issues and advocates for working class issues.

The second yet less prominent reason Hone intends to force a byelection is to affirm his mandate.

But the central reason Hone has signalled he intends to force a byelection is to bait the Maori Party. Hone wanted the Maori Party to stand a candidate against him and they fell for it. The door is now open for the Mana Party to stand in the other Maori electorates, bar maybe Te Tai Hauauru and Te Tai Tonga. Conceivably Hone did not want to be the one to break the agreement – his strongest attribute is his perceived integrity after all. This is what Hone had to say:

"Despite massive pressure by many people to put candidates up against the Maori Party MPs, I have resisted the temptation because I believe it is important to stand behind a promise you make.

Hone wanted to maintain his honest guy image.

The Mana Party knows that Waiariki and Ikaroa-Rawhiti are marginal seats, and possibly Tamaki-Makaurau and Hauraki-Waikato. The Mana Party needs the Maori electorates as a fall back in case the party does not attract an acceptable number of party votes. However, Hone and co. did not want to sacrifice their integrity and break the deal struck with the Maori Party. The Mana Party needed to be the passive player, the guy playing a fair game, as opposed to the aggressor. The party therefore chose to bait the Maori Party and force their hand.

So why will Hone win the byelection?

Firstly, Hone Harawira enjoys a personal following – not a Maori Party following. Almost 62% of electors voted for Hone Harawira at the 2008 election while only 31% of electors voted for the Maori Party. Hone is a minor celebrity in the North and a man who commands a considerable amount of respect. He works tirelessly for Te Tai Tokerau and continues to consult his electorate with regard to his political decision and his parliamentary work.

Secondly, Hone is the incumbent. Incumbency comes with a few advantages. Hone can tap networks he has worked with in his capacity as the MP for Te Tai Tokerau, for example Hauora (Maori social service providers) and Runanga. The incumbent also enjoys name recognition and the ability to point towards a parliamentary record and a record of achievement on behalf of the electorate. The incumbent can also work from his/her electorate offices and utilise the resources and staff that come with.

Thirdly, Hone Harawira has the common touch with Maori. The Maori version of smile and wave. What many mainstream commentators do not appear to appreciate is that brand Harawira is extremely powerful. Brand Harawira, unlike Brand Key, is not refined nor entirely intentional. However, it is persuasive and attractive. Important Maori concepts, such as manaakitanga, are expressed in Brand Harawira. More contemporary Maori values are also reflected in Brand Harawira, for example Hone is “straight up” and seems to reject “flashness” yet retains a certain amount of swagger. Many Maori, especially young Maori and Maori with a tino rangatiratanga bent, like to think Hone reflects them.

Fourthly, and perhaps most importantly, Hone maintains functioning networks across the electorate. He has the ability to tap a ready pool of activists and organisational capabilities. On the other hand, the Maori Party does not. Their branches, committees and so on have moved with Hone. Tim Selwyn picks up on this point:  

It's mass dessertion and operational collapse here in Waiariki, so in the North it is difficult to imagine that they still have any functioning branches at all - although they will have many ambitious members who remain loyal for personal reasons who will form an electorate level committee, but without any depth.

Any branches the Maori Party retain will be cosmetic only. They will lack the numbers, connections and ultimately capabilities needed to make a serious impact.

Fifthly, the narrative is firmly set against the Maori Party. It is a well established line that the Maori Party has favoured the symbolic over the substantive, for instance the tino rangatiratanga flag and the UN declaration. The idea that the Maori Party has sold out is also firmly established as well, think the tax changes, the ETS, the MCA act and so on. The Party continues to frame itself as a party of the right, think the statement that the Maori Party can work with Don Brash and Te Ururoa Flavell’s defence of National re the AMI bailout. The attack lines are so simple and so easy. Whereas the attack lines that can be used against Harawira are personal and could be construed as an example of sour grapes. Ultimately, it is difficult to attack Harawira on his substantive record.

Finally, it has just been announced that Kelvin Davis will stand should the byelection happen. I imagine he will come a very respectable second. In a two way race I do not expect a Maori Party candidate to come anywhere near Harawira. After all, according to Hone at least, the Maori Party has approached eight candidates all of whom refused to stand (undoubtedly knowing that it is a lost cause). There can’t be many quality candidates left at that rate. However, with Kelvin Davis in the mix it is conceivable that he will come within striking distance, at worst he will come an honourable second.  Labour, like Hone, enjoy functioning and effective networks across the electorate. Labour, unlike the Maori Party, is not in disarray and have a strong candidate in Kelvin. Kelvin can run a strong campaign across the electorate and stand on his record as a list MP for the North and a rising star in the Labour caucus. I think we can also be sure that Kelvin’s supporters will actually vote, with Hone’s supporters this is less certain. Byelection turnouts are normally dismal, couple that with the apathy that permeates the Maori electoral population and the fact that Hone is almost guaranteed to win, and it becomes reasonable to assume that Hone’s mainly poor and rural and semi-rural voters will not even bother to turn up. 

To wrap up, Hone will win, Kelvin will come second and the Maori Party candidate will come third. This is assuming the byelection is held tomorrow though. I am not reckless enough to state that this will be the outcome come the election which is at least a month away. There could be any number of intervening events and major revelations.

Finally, I probably won’t be blogging for the rest of this week. I might write a few short posts, but probably nothing more.  

The Herald on Maori politics

An interesting piece from Claire Trevett in the Weekend Herald on the Maori Party and Hone Harawira:

Next week (the Maori Party) will meet to analyse that report (re the non-aggression pact). The agreement's demise is inevitable - not least because it is abundantly clear that while Harawira might not want the party to stand against him, he and his supporters certainly want to be able to stand against the Maori Party MPs.

As I have said, a Maori Party candidate in Te Tai Tokerau (TTT) will not dent Harawira’s support nor push the seat towards Labour. By my reckoning Hone’s base is comprised of around forty percent of TTT electors. In the wake of the expulsion saga I think he managed to solidify that base.

Hone enjoys a sixty two percent majority. I can think of no reason why that figure would decrease – even in a three way race. TTT is a Hone Harawira seat, not a Maori Party seat. Hone benefits from his record as an excellent electorate MP, he benefits from his reputation as an uncompromising Maori advocate and he benefits from his reputation as a genuine good bastard. Hone also maintains an excellent parliamentary record. He voted, for the most part, in principle, for example against the unfair tax switch and the inadequate MCA act, and he smashed tobacco companies and managed to convince a Tory government to increase taxes on tobacco products. Maori in TTT eat up Hone’s tino rangatiratanga rhetoric as well, for example “fiercely independent” iwi like Ngati Kahu. 

The Maori Party is expected to make its move on April 29 - the day before Harawira is to announce his party and new line-up. It will justify its decision by saying there was pressure from Maori Party supporters in Northland to give them someone to vote for.

So the Maori Party will announce whether they will stand a candidate against Harawira this Friday. This will be the Maori Party’s death sentence. Standing a candidate against Hone is utterly illogical. I do not know what the Maori Party expect to achieve. I do not believe that there is much pressure coming from the one or two remaining Maori Party supporters in TTT. I think the Maori Party is erecting a façade, and a pathetic one at that. This is not about placating one or two noisy Maori Party supporters in TTT, it is about destroying Hone as a means of self preservation. Maori will not and can not sustain two Maori Parties – something has to give. One has to be destroyed or one needs to take a broader approach i.e. look beyond Maori voters. Hone also represents a tangible and operating threat – he is pulling Maori Party supporters and will continue to do so (assuming ceteris paribus).

Claire continues:

In Te Tai Tokerau, that will undoubtedly result in a vote split between the Maori Party and Harawira.
The result could well be that Labour's candidate Kelvin Davis, who awaits this scenario with some glee, sweeps through the middle and takes the prize.

This is where she loses herself. Conventional wisdom would dictate that a third party candidate would push the seat towards the dissimilar candidate, read Kelvin Davis. This would perhaps be the case in a general electorate, but the Maori electorates are vastly different in terms of character. Different values are at play, different motivations, the issues are not generic, party ties are secondary, the differences between candidates are often cosmetic, the electorates encompass a huge area and, ultimately, voting is not a wholly rational exercise. For example some Maori will vote according to whakapapa. This wouldn’t occur in a general electorate. What I am trying to get at is that you cannot apply conventional understanding to what appears to be, on the surface at least, a simple political question. The Maori electorates are unpredictable and unusual.

If Davis wins the seat, Harawira does not. That may well be a sacrifice the Maori Party is willing to make - it is Harawira rather than Labour which is most corrosive to it.

A Harawira party without Harawira in Parliament is a far less dangerous prospect and if self-preservation means losing a limb, it may well be worth it.

Correct.

It is hard to gauge support levels for Harawira, beyond his own possibly inflated claims and one Native Affairs-Baseline poll in March in which about one-third of Maori voters said they would support him. 

Anecdotally speaking, there is a shitload of support for Hone Harawira in Waiariki and in Wellington. A terribly unscientific facebook poll on tangatawhenua.com’s page asking who you would vote for had a Harawira party on 152 votes and the Maori Party on 39 votes.

Previous Maori polls even close to an election have not reflected the result. Harawira has strong support in his own electorate, but it is yet to be seen how much of this was because of his Maori Party backing. 

As aforementioned, Harawira’s support is not a result of the Maori Party - TTT is a Harawira seat not a Maori Party seat. 

But in the Maori seats, it is Labour voters who decide who wins. Last election Labour maintained its stranglehold on the party vote in the Maori seats, with about 50 per cent.

True, to a certain extent. Maori vote for Labour out of habit and as a strategic move. Maori do not vote Labour because they believe in the principles of social democracy, or approve of Labours record on Maori issues, or because they’re “Labour people”. The vast majority of Maori have no idea what the hell is going on and vote Labour because it is an ingrained action. Those Maori that do know what is going on vote Labour because a centre left government is in the best interests of Maori. A party vote for the Maori Party is a wasted vote. Maori can have the best of both worlds if they vote Maori on one level and Labour on the next.

Phil Goff's decision to rule out working with Harawira in a government may be enough to staunch any significant flow of the Labour/Maori Party split vote to Harawira.

Maori do not think like this. Whether or not Hone is in government is inconsequential.

(The Maori Party) is still polling at about its 2008 level. But this time, the stars are in alignment. This election year, Labour is struggling in the polls leaving its votes ripe for the picking by another party with left wing policies

Dissatisfied Labour voters will naturally move to Hone. The Maori Party has vacated the left and now occupies the centre right while Hone is moving left. It would take a pretty significant ideological shift for Labour voters to move towards the Maori Party. Why would Labour voters support a party that props up a National government?

Add to this the increased mana that comes with the ministerial positions held by Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia, and a significant lift in the party vote could be achieved if the Maori Party works for it.

This counts for nothing when that mana has not been utilised appropriately i.e. it was used to pass the MCA act among other transgressions. Mana comes with qualifications, it is not a virue in itself.

The party is not blind to this opportunity - but despite its term in government, it has not capitalised on its influence by strong fundraising among wealthier iwi and businesses, many of whom must be watching with some unease the prospect of Harawira unseating the Maori Party.

This is interesting. I would have assumed that financial support from some iwi would be a given. If iwi do not support the Maori Party after having received a number of sops, including the ETS, then they are incredibly ungrateful.

Names of potential candidates are emerging - including Mereana Pitman in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, where the battle could be wide open if Parekura Horomia does not stand again.

Former Maori Party stalwart Angeline Greensill is also expected to stand for Harawira in the Waikato-Tainui seat after missing Maori Party selection for the third year running.

Both Mereana Pitman and Angeline Greensill are strong candidates. I think both are members of Te Whaainga Wahine, an emerging organisation of wahine Maori and a Maori political force of the future, and both enjoy huge respect in their respective rohe. Angeline Greensill has come close in Hauraki-Waikato and is a strong opponent of the corrupt Tuku Morgan and Te Arataura. Mereana Pitman is from the protest generation and enjoys a national reputation. I do not think Greensill would win Hauraki Waikato, but Pitman has a chance if, as Claire says, Parekura steps down. Mereana Pitman is a Hone Harawira like figure, without the rough edges and the aggressive demeanour. She is respected as a Maori advocate, someone who has done the mahi on the ground, and is, by all accounts, an intelligent woman. She is untested as a politician though.

Overall, an excellent piece from Claire Trevett. I’m looking forward to Harawira’s launch this weekend. I will blog on the launch and any interesting aspects next week, hopefully.  

Will we see a new movement?

Hone Harawira is set to announce sometime this Sunday whether he will form a new party. The final decision rests with his Tai Tokerau electorate committee. From the NZ Herald:

"I sincerely hope that the Tai Tokerau, on Sunday, says 'go ahead, let's have the new party', because if Tai Tokerau says 'no, you're just going to be the MP for Tai Tokerau', then that's that (for forming a party)," Mr Harawira told Radio New Zealand.

I cannot profess any inside knowledge or special understanding in this case. I honestly do not know what way the committee is leaning. I would infer, from Hone’s rhetoric and the rhetoric of those close to him, that the go ahead will be granted. I imagine the committee will take into account the strong desire among Maori for a new “movement”. That desire is most intense in the north I should add. Hone’s aims must also be taken into account.

The committee must ask this. If Hone forms a new party will he be a less effective electorate MP. Will leading a party diminish his ability to serve his constituents. This consideration must be weighed against Hone’s own desires and the desires of his constituents. At this point, the desire seems to be to form a new movement.

I await the announcement and I’ll will blog, at some point, on the result and the implications.     

Briefly: The earthquake and Maori Politics (updated)

It still seems a little crass to be discussing the political ramifications of the Chch earthquake but ultimately we cannot lose sight of something as significant as politics. In this post I want to briefly discuss the effect the earthquake will have on Maori politics, specifically Rahui Katene and the passage of the MCA bill.

For Maori politics the big question is will Rahui Katene retain her seat as a result of the earthquake. Up until now I have been predicting that Rahui will almost certainly lose her seat. But of course in light of recent events this is now uncertain. To win Te Tai Tonga you need to win Chch and Wellington. Wellington is still anyone’s game but Chch may now swing behind Rahui. From what I hear Rahui is doing a good job moving around the community reassuring and supporting Maori affected by the earthquake. By all accounts The Maori Party and Ngai Tahu leaders are also doing a good job setting up Marae to support displaced whanau. As Rahui moves around the Maori community the people get to see her human side. A compassionate and supportive politician. People do not see the Rahui who supports the MCA bill or the Rahui who voted for an increase in GST. They see someone who is forming a very strong and very personal relationship with them. People are responsive to politicians who act in a human capacity as opposed to a political capacity.

The Maori Party, and by extension Rahui, are, in a political sense, managing the situation very well. No showmanship, no criticism, just a quiet flaxroot effort. One could assume that I am saying the Maori Party and Rahui are using the situation for political gain. I am not. Ultimately they just want to help. But the way in which they are helping is politically beneficial.

Some commentators have suggested that the MCA bill may be put on hold or scrapped altogether. I think this is a little naïve. The Maori Party will not allow the MCA bill to fall off the legislative agenda. If universal opposition and the threat of a second hikoi are not enough to deter the party then an earthquake and the resulting political sensitivities probably won’t either. The country’s attention will be focussed almost exclusively on Chch for the next month at the least. The Nat’s would love the opportunity to slip the bill through while the public consciousness is directed towards bigger issues. The MCA bill was electorally damaging yet a political necessity, therefore the Nats will welcome the opportunity to placate their support partner and limit electoral damage in the process.

In conclusion the earthquake may mean Rahui Katene will retain Te Tai Tonga and the MCA bill will proceed. This means, in my opinion, that The Maori Party will come out of the election having retained all their seats (excluding Te Tai Tokerau of course).

*As an aside, I do not share the surprisingly common sentiment that the earthquake will ensure the government is re-elected, perhaps with a majority. My reading of the situation in the months following the initial quake was that many people in Chch were not satisfied with the government’s response. Why would they do any better this time around? Everything to come out of the government’s mouth has been uninspiring.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention the quake will damage the momentum Winston Peters is, well was, generating. I don’t think the country has the stomach for Winston at the moment. Even in the coming months the Nats can easily label Winnie a distraction and an impediment to progress in Chch. A man stuck moaning about yesterdays issues. Winston needs to refocus. The old issues of immigration, separatism and the like may lack the potency they once possessed. However, in the wake of the quake nationalism may prove to be a key issue. I can imagine calls for contracts to be awarded to local businesses as opposed to some cheap overseas corporate going down well. One thing is for sure, Winston’s chances of re-election have plummeted.    

Matt McCarten on Hone Harawira

Matt McCarten, in an excellent piece in The Herald on Sunday, has suggested that the Hone Harawira expulsion could determine the election. Matt, who is a close advisor to Hone, thinks Hone will form a new party and target the party vote. I guess this almost confirms that Hone will form a new party. However, I am unsure that Hone has the time, skills and support to form a new party. In a previous column Matt made it pretty clear that he is not involved in the formation of a new party. Sue Bradford appears to be in favour one minute and then downplays her enthusiasm the next. Without Matt’s involvement Hone will not be able to delegate the groundwork to a capable pair of hands. Parliamentary and electorate work is all consuming. Hone simply does not have the time to form and launch a new party without experienced operators like Matt and Sue Bradford. Another problem is Hone will find it hard to attract the administrative and political talent needed to form, launch and sustain a party. Let’s be honest, Hone will need the services of youngish, Pakeha, urban middle class administrators and political operatives, however attracting said talent will be difficult. This demographic is hardly responsive to some of Hone strongly held opinions.

But for arguments sake let’s say Hone does form a new party. Matt tells us Hone will run a campaign against the MCA bill, low wages, welfare reform, GST and mining. Matt thinks these issues will mobilise support among Maori and non-Maori working class folk. I am not so sure. Matt’s showed us in Mana that mobilising the poor, not so much the working poor rather beneficiaries, is near impossible. Of the above campaign issues only the MCA bill and mining have proved widely contentious. However, mining was a middle class issue in that it mobilised the middle class, the poor were, well visibly at least, indifferent. Furthermore, the MCA bill has proven more of a Maori concern. Pakeha concern is comparatively light – with the exception of a few rednecks. With the above in mind it becomes obvious that the MCA bill and mining, the two big issues if you like, play to contrasting groups. Low wages, welfare reform and GST have failed to elicit a whisper from those most affected. Without doubt the working poor and beneficiaries are feeling or will feel the bite but there is simply no response. How will Hone ignite and organise a response to these changes? The poor are politically apathetic and apathy has no straightforward cure. Having said that if there is anyone who can speak to the poor and disaffected it is Hone Harawira. I should not write him off so easily.

Matt also suggests that Pita Sharples and Rahui Katene will find it difficult to retain their seats without Hone’s endorsement. Again, I think this is goes a bit far. Pita is damaged but no more than Shane Jones. Shane is hardly an endearing figure and Maori will not return to Labour so easily. Maori are excellent strategic voters and there is really no benefit in returning Shane Jones as the member for Tamaki Makaurau. Hone’s supporters are not going to vote for a man who labels their man a “hoodlum”. Ultimately the voters of Tamaki Makaurau have a shit choice – Shane’s vision is a corporate vision with working class overtones. Pita’s vision is a Maori vision hijacked by a corporate agenda. So it’s basically a contest between which corporate you like best. Arrogant and abrasive Jones or affable and approachable Sharples? The choice is clear. (I will address Rahui Katene and Te Tai Tonga in my next post).

The constituency for a new left party exists. The challenge is to mobilise that constituency. I would love to see a new left party with Hone and Sue Bradford, the two most effective backbenchers in recent memory, and Matt McCarten, the most skilled operator in NZ politics. However, I worry that the practical challenges a new party would face are too great. I hope I’m wrong.

C'mon Tariana

From Waatea News;

Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia says the party is prepared to live with any electoral fall-out from its wrangles with rebel Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira.

Political commentator Matt McCarten has suggested Mrs Turia and Mr Harawira may be the only two Maori Party MPs left standing after the election, as the row over whether the party is right to support the National government affects support in the wider Maori population.

Mrs Turia says the comments by the former Alliance president should be read in the context that he has been advising Mr Harawira behind the scenes.

“He has a bias and he is showing it. As far as we’re concerned, and we can only guage it by what the electorates are reporting back to us, it is true we will lose some members and it is also true we will gain some members,” she says.

Mrs Turia says the Maori Party leadership is not letting the complaint against Hone Harawira divert its attention from other important work needing to be done.

Firstly, I think Matt is wrong in this instance. Pita is fairly secure in Tamaki Makaurau while Te Ururoa Flavell, although less secure, will prove hard to dislodge. Shane Jones will struggle to pull back Pita's majority in the electorate. I have always thought Pita enjoys more of a personal rather than political following in the electorate, therefore The Maori Party’s political decisions will have a negligible effect on voter behaviour. On the other hand Te Ururoa does not enjoy a personal following rather an iwi following. Te Arawa will vote for their man while some other iwi within the Waiariki electorate, for example Tuhoe and Ngati Awa, casually endorse him. Mita Ririnui has signalled that he will stand down following the election, hopefully Labour stand a credible candidate with the connections and intellect required to really challenge Te Ururoa. Personally, I would like to see Annette Sykes stand (not for Labour though). I have already outlined in a previous post that I think Rino Tirakatene will snatch Te Tai Tonga. Rahui has failed to impress, although she does well as Tariana’s minion. I think Ngai Tahu endorsement is one of the keys to success in Te Tai Tonga. I do not know which way Ngai Tahu is leaning but given their opposition to the MCA bill one could assume favourable feeling towards The Maori Party is limited. I am curious to know what Marty Mars, who is more qualified to speak on Te Tai Tonga issues, thinks.

Secondly, Turia is correct, Matt has been advising Hone and for some I believe. Perhaps this gives credibility to the new left wing party rumours. More than likely it is just Matt offering help to a personal friend. Where Turia errs is in suggesting Matt’s column is spin. That is an overly cynical and politically charged suggestion that I do not even think Turia believes. Reading over the column even the most partisan supporter would admit the column is astute.  

Thirdly, expecting to gain members is wildly optimistic. The Maori Party’s brand is tarnished. The perception that the party is ‘selling-out’ is firmly rooted among Maori and non-Maori too. Reversing that perception will take many months. The word kupapa is often thrown about when discussing The Maori Party. Obviously, there is a depth of negative emotion surrounding the party – who would want to associate with such a party? The party is beginning to resemble electoral poison.

Lastly, Turia speaks of “other important work needing to be done”. Ahhh, and what work is that? Prison privatisation? Asset sales? Weakening work rights (90 day law)? Dumping huge costs on already struggling Maori families (ETS, ACC changes etc)?

Or were you referring to doing something about the Maori unemployment rate? The shocking Maori health statistics? Violence in the Maori community? Child poverty? Maori failing in the education system?

I wonder, but something tells me you had the first list in mind.