The Herald on Maori politics

An interesting piece from Claire Trevett in the Weekend Herald on the Maori Party and Hone Harawira:

Next week (the Maori Party) will meet to analyse that report (re the non-aggression pact). The agreement's demise is inevitable - not least because it is abundantly clear that while Harawira might not want the party to stand against him, he and his supporters certainly want to be able to stand against the Maori Party MPs.

As I have said, a Maori Party candidate in Te Tai Tokerau (TTT) will not dent Harawira’s support nor push the seat towards Labour. By my reckoning Hone’s base is comprised of around forty percent of TTT electors. In the wake of the expulsion saga I think he managed to solidify that base.

Hone enjoys a sixty two percent majority. I can think of no reason why that figure would decrease – even in a three way race. TTT is a Hone Harawira seat, not a Maori Party seat. Hone benefits from his record as an excellent electorate MP, he benefits from his reputation as an uncompromising Maori advocate and he benefits from his reputation as a genuine good bastard. Hone also maintains an excellent parliamentary record. He voted, for the most part, in principle, for example against the unfair tax switch and the inadequate MCA act, and he smashed tobacco companies and managed to convince a Tory government to increase taxes on tobacco products. Maori in TTT eat up Hone’s tino rangatiratanga rhetoric as well, for example “fiercely independent” iwi like Ngati Kahu. 

The Maori Party is expected to make its move on April 29 - the day before Harawira is to announce his party and new line-up. It will justify its decision by saying there was pressure from Maori Party supporters in Northland to give them someone to vote for.

So the Maori Party will announce whether they will stand a candidate against Harawira this Friday. This will be the Maori Party’s death sentence. Standing a candidate against Hone is utterly illogical. I do not know what the Maori Party expect to achieve. I do not believe that there is much pressure coming from the one or two remaining Maori Party supporters in TTT. I think the Maori Party is erecting a façade, and a pathetic one at that. This is not about placating one or two noisy Maori Party supporters in TTT, it is about destroying Hone as a means of self preservation. Maori will not and can not sustain two Maori Parties – something has to give. One has to be destroyed or one needs to take a broader approach i.e. look beyond Maori voters. Hone also represents a tangible and operating threat – he is pulling Maori Party supporters and will continue to do so (assuming ceteris paribus).

Claire continues:

In Te Tai Tokerau, that will undoubtedly result in a vote split between the Maori Party and Harawira.
The result could well be that Labour's candidate Kelvin Davis, who awaits this scenario with some glee, sweeps through the middle and takes the prize.

This is where she loses herself. Conventional wisdom would dictate that a third party candidate would push the seat towards the dissimilar candidate, read Kelvin Davis. This would perhaps be the case in a general electorate, but the Maori electorates are vastly different in terms of character. Different values are at play, different motivations, the issues are not generic, party ties are secondary, the differences between candidates are often cosmetic, the electorates encompass a huge area and, ultimately, voting is not a wholly rational exercise. For example some Maori will vote according to whakapapa. This wouldn’t occur in a general electorate. What I am trying to get at is that you cannot apply conventional understanding to what appears to be, on the surface at least, a simple political question. The Maori electorates are unpredictable and unusual.

If Davis wins the seat, Harawira does not. That may well be a sacrifice the Maori Party is willing to make - it is Harawira rather than Labour which is most corrosive to it.

A Harawira party without Harawira in Parliament is a far less dangerous prospect and if self-preservation means losing a limb, it may well be worth it.

Correct.

It is hard to gauge support levels for Harawira, beyond his own possibly inflated claims and one Native Affairs-Baseline poll in March in which about one-third of Maori voters said they would support him. 

Anecdotally speaking, there is a shitload of support for Hone Harawira in Waiariki and in Wellington. A terribly unscientific facebook poll on tangatawhenua.com’s page asking who you would vote for had a Harawira party on 152 votes and the Maori Party on 39 votes.

Previous Maori polls even close to an election have not reflected the result. Harawira has strong support in his own electorate, but it is yet to be seen how much of this was because of his Maori Party backing. 

As aforementioned, Harawira’s support is not a result of the Maori Party - TTT is a Harawira seat not a Maori Party seat. 

But in the Maori seats, it is Labour voters who decide who wins. Last election Labour maintained its stranglehold on the party vote in the Maori seats, with about 50 per cent.

True, to a certain extent. Maori vote for Labour out of habit and as a strategic move. Maori do not vote Labour because they believe in the principles of social democracy, or approve of Labours record on Maori issues, or because they’re “Labour people”. The vast majority of Maori have no idea what the hell is going on and vote Labour because it is an ingrained action. Those Maori that do know what is going on vote Labour because a centre left government is in the best interests of Maori. A party vote for the Maori Party is a wasted vote. Maori can have the best of both worlds if they vote Maori on one level and Labour on the next.

Phil Goff's decision to rule out working with Harawira in a government may be enough to staunch any significant flow of the Labour/Maori Party split vote to Harawira.

Maori do not think like this. Whether or not Hone is in government is inconsequential.

(The Maori Party) is still polling at about its 2008 level. But this time, the stars are in alignment. This election year, Labour is struggling in the polls leaving its votes ripe for the picking by another party with left wing policies

Dissatisfied Labour voters will naturally move to Hone. The Maori Party has vacated the left and now occupies the centre right while Hone is moving left. It would take a pretty significant ideological shift for Labour voters to move towards the Maori Party. Why would Labour voters support a party that props up a National government?

Add to this the increased mana that comes with the ministerial positions held by Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia, and a significant lift in the party vote could be achieved if the Maori Party works for it.

This counts for nothing when that mana has not been utilised appropriately i.e. it was used to pass the MCA act among other transgressions. Mana comes with qualifications, it is not a virue in itself.

The party is not blind to this opportunity - but despite its term in government, it has not capitalised on its influence by strong fundraising among wealthier iwi and businesses, many of whom must be watching with some unease the prospect of Harawira unseating the Maori Party.

This is interesting. I would have assumed that financial support from some iwi would be a given. If iwi do not support the Maori Party after having received a number of sops, including the ETS, then they are incredibly ungrateful.

Names of potential candidates are emerging - including Mereana Pitman in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, where the battle could be wide open if Parekura Horomia does not stand again.

Former Maori Party stalwart Angeline Greensill is also expected to stand for Harawira in the Waikato-Tainui seat after missing Maori Party selection for the third year running.

Both Mereana Pitman and Angeline Greensill are strong candidates. I think both are members of Te Whaainga Wahine, an emerging organisation of wahine Maori and a Maori political force of the future, and both enjoy huge respect in their respective rohe. Angeline Greensill has come close in Hauraki-Waikato and is a strong opponent of the corrupt Tuku Morgan and Te Arataura. Mereana Pitman is from the protest generation and enjoys a national reputation. I do not think Greensill would win Hauraki Waikato, but Pitman has a chance if, as Claire says, Parekura steps down. Mereana Pitman is a Hone Harawira like figure, without the rough edges and the aggressive demeanour. She is respected as a Maori advocate, someone who has done the mahi on the ground, and is, by all accounts, an intelligent woman. She is untested as a politician though.

Overall, an excellent piece from Claire Trevett. I’m looking forward to Harawira’s launch this weekend. I will blog on the launch and any interesting aspects next week, hopefully.  

The Mana Party... Coming soon

Hone Harawira appears set to announce the formation of a new party at the end of the month. The Mana Party should be announced following a final hui on April 30. Readers will know I have been predicting and advocating a broad left wing party as opposed to an alternative Maori party. However, it appears Hone will deliver the latter.

As you can probably imagine, I think this is a strategic mistake. I will qualify that statement by saying good on Hone. Maori want a new kaupapa Maori party and he is delivering one. In this post I want to quote, at length, my thoughts on the issue from March 12:

Hone has announced that any new party he forms will be Maori focussed. I do not think this necessarily precludes the possibility that the party will be broadly left wing. Certainly tino rangatiratanga finds a natural ally in the left - the recognition of indigenous rights is almost the exclusive domain of the left in fact. Hone appreciates this. In this post I want to discuss why Hone Harawira must launch a broad left wing party rather than a single issue alternative Maori party.

If Hone were to form an alternative Maori party he must, in the interest of electoral success, destroy the current Maori Party. The numbers required to sustain both a left wing Maori party and a right wing Maori party do not exist. The Party vote for the current Maori Party is already exceedingly low and it is fair to assume that there is little potential to tap new and existing, yet inactive, voters. The Green Maori vote is also exceedingly low. The Labour Maori vote remains significant yet there are dangers in attempting to bite a piece off of the Labour Party. For the moment, Hone needs the Labour Party in terms of support in the House and around Parliament. Any new party Hone forms will also be ideologically tied to Labour. Now if Hone were to pursue the Labour Maori vote Labour could respond in kind and attempt to stymie Hone. Erect barriers in an attempt to protect their voter base. For example Labour, if threatened, could silence Hone in the House by refusing to offer him anymore speaking slots. Cut off his oxygen supply essentially. Hones best options is to target the politically inactive. The constituency exists and I firmly believe Hone, in cohort with Matt McCarten, is, or are, the people to finally reach out to that untapped market often called the underclass.  

Most people can list three or four political values and issues that mean a lot to them. The reality is that most people will not list flags on bridges, international treaties and customary rights near the top. The cost of living, wages and welfare will come out near the top of most lists, therefore it is crucial that Hone take a broader view. The current Maori Party continues to collect a considerable amount of criticism for the party’s perceived focus on symbolic wins as opposed to substantive wins. This should signal to Hone that a focus on Maori values such as the recognition of some rights is not enough to placate Maori. At the end of the day Maori, like everyone else, want to enjoy a higher standard of living, job security etc. And of course the underclass, I loathe the connotations of that word but it is the common designation we all understand, is not exclusively Maori. The underclass consists of the working poor, Pakeha beneficiaries and in many cases Pakeha pensioners. With this in mind it becomes clear that the pitch must be much wider. Although any new party Hone launches will not rely on the party vote, for the time being that is, if Hone wants to drag any new MP’s in with him he must ensure his messages, policies etc resonate with a wide audience.  

The political marketplace is already crammed and, as one commentator put it, an alternative Maori party will occupy a niche within a niche.

Most of this, in my mind at least, still holds true. I want to add a few more comments though.

Firstly, the Maori vote is volatile in one respect and solidified in another respect. What I mean by this is that on a candidate level the Maori vote tends to jump around while on a party level the vote is largely fixed with Labour. In terms of the party vote I think this comes down to habit – it’s a generational thing. Hone will struggle to change that. The Maori Party failed to convert a majority of Maori. Mana Motuhake also failed and so did the Greens.  

Secondly, Hone needs a moderating force. In my opinion he does whatever the last person told him to do. People like Annette Sykes will hardly exercise control over Hone’s more extreme tendencies. They will only reinforce what he believes.

I wish Hone success. I agree with much of what he says and does. But not enough people share my outlook on life. Not enough to make him a significant force.

Will we see a new movement?

Hone Harawira is set to announce sometime this Sunday whether he will form a new party. The final decision rests with his Tai Tokerau electorate committee. From the NZ Herald:

"I sincerely hope that the Tai Tokerau, on Sunday, says 'go ahead, let's have the new party', because if Tai Tokerau says 'no, you're just going to be the MP for Tai Tokerau', then that's that (for forming a party)," Mr Harawira told Radio New Zealand.

I cannot profess any inside knowledge or special understanding in this case. I honestly do not know what way the committee is leaning. I would infer, from Hone’s rhetoric and the rhetoric of those close to him, that the go ahead will be granted. I imagine the committee will take into account the strong desire among Maori for a new “movement”. That desire is most intense in the north I should add. Hone’s aims must also be taken into account.

The committee must ask this. If Hone forms a new party will he be a less effective electorate MP. Will leading a party diminish his ability to serve his constituents. This consideration must be weighed against Hone’s own desires and the desires of his constituents. At this point, the desire seems to be to form a new movement.

I await the announcement and I’ll will blog, at some point, on the result and the implications.     

Further proof...

I have been predicting that Hone will form a left wing party as opposed to a new Maori party. Here is further support of that proposition. From Waatea News:

Independent MP Hone Harawira says he intends to honour his separation agreement with the Maori Party and not contest seats it holds.

“It’s looking like there is going to be a new party. It will be announced round about the middle of next month. I can’t say yet when the candidates will be announced. I can say that at this time it is not my intention to stand candidates in the Maori seats against the Maori Party members,” Mr Harawira says.

I think it is fair to assume that any new Maori party would need to contest the Maori seats if it were to have any relevancy as a “Maori” party. The Maori seats give a party mana, or a mandate perhaps, as representatives of Maori. Without even contesting the Maori seats you forego a base to work from and a source of, as I said, relevancy and mana.

Of course things may change but the signs seem to be pointing in positive directions. Hone must know that the only beneficiaries of a three way race in the Maori seats will be Labour.

While I’m on the subject of Hone I just want to briefly discuss this comment:

“I think the concern for Phil has to be that people don’t see him as a credible leader any more. But, I can work with Labour any day, whether Phil’s in charge or Shane’s in charge. As Parekura rightly said, him and I have worked many times on projects in the past and we could do so again. I can do it with any number of his colleagues, so I don’t see it as an issue. It is really just political opportunism on his part,” he says.

This is a well crafted statement and I guess it does show that Hone is receiving some sound advice. The comment touches on the well established theme that Goff is not a credible leader of the Labour Party and as such will probably not lead Labour to victory. Hone then goes on to reiterate that he can work with Labour and as a result he frames himself as the reasonable one. Notice also how Hone name drops Shane Jones as a potential leader. Of course this is unrealistic but it is fair to assume that Goff is aware of the narrative the Shane is, or was, a credible threat and the inevitable leader. It goes back to the theme that Goff is merely temporary. Hone then mentions Parekura, clearly referring to Parekura’s early rebuff of Goff re working with Hone. As a result Hone is highlighting the apparent disunity in Labour. Hone then brushes off the whole issue and calls Goff out as a political opportunist thus reinforcing the dominant narrative that Goff’s move was driven not by principle but opportunity.  

Brief thoughts on the Native Affairs' poll

Monday’s episode of Native Affairs was incredibly interesting. The show commissioned a poll that surveyed Maori on a number of issues including the Maori Party/National Party coalition and Hone Harawira. In this post I want to give my brief thoughts on the results of some of the questions the poll posed.  

Interestingly, support for Labour remains strong at 37%. This is encouraging for the party considering the invisibility of many of their Maori MP’s. I think this reflects Labour’s core support. Remember that Labour polled at around 50% on election night, therefore it is probably safe to assume that many Maori voters have swung towards National (22%) and New Zealand First (5%). The Maori Party is sitting on 32% which, in light of the Hone Harawira saga, is encouraging for them. I find it hard to explain why the Nat’s are polling so high among Maori. I would suggest though that telephone polls tend to reach middle class voters who do not work shifts and with phone connections, obviously. It is safe to assume support for the Nats is highest among middle income Maori. Furthermore, the relationship between the Maori Party and the Nats lends them some credibility with Maori. New Zealand First has always done well among Maori and I am not surprised to see that Winston, or should I say New Zealand First, is polling at a respectable 5%. Winston’s, for lack of a better term, Maori boy charisma is fairly attractive and his nationalist rhetoric goes down well with many working class Maori. Sadly, the Greens are polling at a mere 3%. This is utterly perplexing. The Greens are the only party with any credibility on Maori issues and Green policy is, in my strongly held opinion, best for Maori. Meteria Turei, a wahine Maori of some mana, is also the party’s leader. I really wish Maori would swing behind the Greens rather than slave away supporting Labour when Labour is offering nothing.

Hone does not register in the above question, however when respondents were asked whether they would support a Hone Harawira led party 32% said yes while 52% said no. This is extremely significant. As stated the Maori Party is currently sitting on 32% support. How much of that 32% represents the 32% that would vote for a Hone Harawira led party? Most I would say. If Harawira could translate that support into votes on election day then he could well bring in a number of MP’s. The Maori Party, and National for that matter, should be very worried. On these numbers Hone could split the Maori vote and theoretically annihilate the Maori Party. For me, this is all the confirmation I need that Hone will form a new party. Furthermore, in an interview during the show Hone claims to have financial backers in place. Finance was the last hurdle for Hone. The machinery is in place, thanks to the Unite Union, the rank and file is prepared, the advisors are in place, the staffers that left the Maori Party have joined Hone and now, according to Hone, the financial backers have been found. Brilliant.

The poll also asked respondents what their main areas of concern were. 71% said unemployment was a major concern, no surprises given the stratospheric Maori unemployment rate. 66% said the cost of living, this is also not surprising given the astronomical rise in petrol prices and food prices and the CPI as a whole. 62% said GST was a major concern, some items have almost doubled in price following the rise in GST so, again, no surprise. Interestingly 59% said privatisation was a major concern, this will give Labour hope that their message is resonating. 53% cited tax cuts for the rich as a major area of concern too. These are issues that the Labour Party and indeed Hone Harawira can run hard on. On the other hand the Maori Party can not because they are implicated in all of this by virtue of their association with the Nats and in some cases their endorsement of the above concerns, for example GST. The two bottom issues were treaty settlements and the foreshore and seabed. This is unsurprising but pertinent. This indicates that the election will focus on bread and butter issues (cost of living etc). The foreshore and seabed and treaty issues can be relegated without consequence – or with little consequence. This is good for Labour given that the party has no credibility on the foreshore and seabed issue yet a huge amount of credibility on unemployment.

Now I just want to address two points unrelated to the poll. Firstly, Hekia Parata is an arrogant and angry person. She is truly toxic when it comes to debate. She lacks civility and any sense of reason. I was particularly pissed off when she claimed that it is merely a “perception” that people are worse off under National rather than a tangible reality. It takes an arrogant person to disregard and belittle the feelings of a great number of people. Secondly, Hone was wearing jandals in his interview. I liked that.

So I encourage you to watch the program for yourself. It was one of the most informative political broadcasts of the year.   

On Hone Harawira's new party (again)

We all know Hone Harawira is a Maori nationalist. However, as I have said on numerous occasions, this does not preclude the possibility that Hone will form a broad left wing party. Although tino rangatiratanga is not entirely compatible with the notions and values of social democracy, it is not impossible to reconcile the two. For a more in depth discussion on why I think Hone will form a broad left wing party, as opposed to an alternative Maori party, see this post.

In this post I want to draw your attention to comments made by Annette Sykes:

Rotorua Maori lawyer Annette Sykes says Pakeha should have a major part to play in any new political party set up dissident MP Home Harawira.

She says the Maori and Pakeha heros that have emerged during the Christchurch quake are indicative of a new New Zealand that any new Maori political movement must incorporate.

This indicates, to me at least, that Annette, and surely by extension Hone, realise that an alternative Maori party is impractical. Annette knows that the numbers do not exist to support the Maori Party, an alternative Maori party, the Greens and of course Labour. Any new party will need to broaden its appeal. Matt McCarten, one of Hone’s advisors, also knows that an alternative Maori party will not work and any new party will require some amount of working class appeal and a focus on beneficiaries, both Maori and Pakeha.

The only circumstance in which an alternative Maori party makes any political sense is if the end goal is to destroy the current Maori Party. I feel that this is unlikely. Having said that Annette has given a soft indication that she may run against Te Ururoa in Waiariki. If she does, and she has not ruled it out, then I think it is safe to assume the end goal is to destroy the Maori Party. This would be terribly unwise. For all of their sins the Maori Party occupies a brilliant strategic niche and, in likelihood, will be in an incredibly strong position post-election.

Hone must realise that destroying the Maori Party also opens the door for the Nat’s to launch a full frontal attack on all things Maori. At the moment the Maori Party is a moderating force on the Nats. The Nats know that they cannot attack things Maori without backlash from their most reliable long-term coalition partner. With Act on its last legs and Dunne looking shaky in Ohariu the Nats realise that the Maori Party is their best shot in terms of governing into the future, therefore the party must be kept on side.  

Ultimately, I think Hone will form a new left party rather than an alternative Maori party. Consider what Matt McCarten has this to say:

If there was a contest I think Tariana Turia and Hone would be the only ones left standing. I think it would be a tragedy for Maori.

Matt knows and would have informed Hone that the only benefactors of an alternative Maori Party will be Labour. In Hone were to stand candidates in the other Maori electorates then Labour would storm home. It would be an epic strategic blunder.

The animosity between Hone and his former colleagues should not be underestimated. But ultimately both sides need to realise that politics is bigger than their egos.

On Hone Harawira's new party

From Stuff.co.nz:

The chances of a broad-based Left-wing party rising from the ashes of Hone Harawira's meltdown with the Maori Party have been dashed after he made it clear that any group he led would have to be Maori-focused.

So Hone has announced that any new party he forms will be Maori focussed. I do not think this necessarily precludes the possibility that the party will be broadly left wing. Certainly tino rangatiratanga finds a natural ally in the left - the recognition of indigenous rights is almost the exclusive domain of the left in fact. Hone appreciates this. In this post I want to discuss why Hone Harawira must launch a broad left wing party rather than a single issue alternative Maori party.

If Hone were to form an alternative Maori party he must, in the interest of electoral success, destroy the current Maori Party. The numbers required to sustain both a left wing Maori party and a right wing Maori party do not exist. The Party vote for the current Maori Party is already exceedingly low and it is fair to assume that there is little potential to tap new and existing, yet inactive, voters. The Green Maori vote is also exceedingly low. The Labour Maori vote remains significant yet there are dangers in attempting to bite a piece off of the Labour Party. For the moment, Hone needs the Labour Party in terms of support in the House and around Parliament. Any new party Hone forms will also be ideologically tied to Labour. Now if Hone were to pursue the Labour Maori vote Labour could respond in kind and attempt to stymie Hone. Erect barriers in an attempt to protect their voter base. For example Labour, if threatened, could silence Hone in the House by refusing to offer him anymore speaking slots. Cut off his oxygen supply essentially. Hones best options is to target the politically inactive. The constituency exists and I firmly believe Hone, in cohort with Matt McCarten, is, or are, the people to finally reach out to that untapped market often called the underclass.  

Most people can list three or four political values and issues that mean a lot to them. The reality is that most people will not list flags on bridges, international treaties and customary rights near the top. The cost of living, wages and welfare will come out near the top of most lists, therefore it is crucial that Hone take a broader view. The current Maori Party continues to collect a considerable amount of criticism for the party’s perceived focus on symbolic wins as opposed to substantive wins. This should signal to Hone that a focus on Maori values such as the recognition of some rights is not enough to placate Maori. At the end of the day Maori, like everyone else, want to enjoy a higher standard of living, job security etc. And of course the underclass, I loathe the connotations of that word but it is the common designation we all understand, is not exclusively Maori. The underclass consists of the working poor, Pakeha beneficiaries and in many cases Pakeha pensioners. With this in mind it becomes clear that the pitch must be much wider. Although any new party Hone launches will not rely on the party vote, for the time being that is, if Hone wants to drag any new MP’s in with him he must ensure his messages, policies etc resonate with a wide audience.  

Hone is not stupid and I think he knows that there is no room for an alternative Maori party, the political marketplace is already crammed and, as one commentator put it, an alternative Maori party will occupy a niche within a niche. All of this talk of a Maori focussed party is, in my opinion, a distraction. It is a call to action to Hone’s tino rangatiratanga supporters. These people will provide the rank and file foundations of a new party. Hone has already floated the names of his advisors - Matt McCarten, Willie Jackson, Sandra Lee etc – the administrative and logistical support already exists in the form of the Unite Union and former Maori Party staffers as well. Therefore, all that is needed now is the 500 person membership quota. For that reason Hone is touring the country talking about this Maori focussed party because he needs to attract the already politically active i.e. current and former Maori Party supporters. No use targeting the politically inactive just yet.

What is also interesting is Sue Bradfords attempts to not so much distance herself from the new party but rather talk down her enthusiasm. Hone and Sue are close personal friends and I have no doubt that the two have been working closely over the past few months so naturally I cannot quite figure out why she is attempting to down play the whole thing.

The most widely cited danger in forming a new left party is the effect it will have on the Green Party. In my opinion these concerns are largely unfounded. The Greens target the urban middle class vote whereas any party Hone forms will target, as I have said, the underclass. The two parties will play to completely different voter bases. Admittedly a new left party could attract the social activists among the Greens. These people are few and far between though and the environmental aspect of the Greens is a strong pull in their favour. A vote for the Greens is a vote for 21^st century eco-capitalism, a vote for Hone’s new party is a vote for social democracy. The two are not similar and the overlap will be minimal.

Hopefully I can attend one of Hone’s hui, although I think he has already held his Wellington hui? It will be interesting to hear what he has to say and then solidify or reform my thoughts. In any event I hope he will opt for a broad left wing party. The Maori Party serves its purpose and the left is in dire need of a real left party. But most of all the underclass needs a voice. Our democracy and our society will be stronger for it.   

They really don't like each other

The degree of animosity between Hone Harawira and his former colleagues is not surprising. Of particular interest is this quote from Hone:

 “Parliamentary Services came across yesterday to tell my executive assistant he’d been approached by the party leadership who said no, he’s not going to have that office, we want him completely out of the way so it was their decision, not Parliamentary services,” Mr Harawira says.

This is interesting. If this allegation is true then it clearly demonstrates the depth of resentment between Hone and the leadership of the Maori Party. It was well known that the two sides have had a fractured relationship well before the SST column and resulting controversy. But who could have imagined that in less than three years the party would splinter and the two remaining sides are left playing dirty politics amongst themselves. As a further illustration of how bad things have got consider this from Waatea News:

(Hone) is pleased with the support he has received from Labour and the Greens, and the only four people in the country he does not get on with are Maori party president Pem Bird and MPs Pita Sharples, Tariana Turia and Te Ururoa Flavell.

Ouch. Funny how Pem Bird is implicated. This shows that the parliamentary wing was working in cohort with the institutional wing of the party. Clearly Pem Bird holds no reservations in terms of giving effect to National Party directives i.e. to remove Hone.

Of course Hone is not the only one throwing around some mud. From Waatea News:

Party co-leader Tariana Turia has labelled the Tai Tokerau MP an embarrassment for missing the second reading vote on the Marine and Coastal Area Bill.

An embarrassment to who? Admittedly it was a bad look for Hone but ultimately his absence was inconsequential.

The rift between Hone and the Maori Party is probably deeper than many of us know. We can speculate as to what went wrong and when. Who was involved and so on. But this is probably counter-productive. Maori need to look forward. The question is who will take us forward. Hone or the Maori Party. My bet is on the former.

Left: No vacancy

Today the MCA bill will face its second reading. As I/S at No Right Turn points out, the government, and by extension the Maori Party, are using the Chch earthquake as political cover. This is politics at its most dishonest.  

The Maori Party have approached this issue in a most shameful manner. Not only are they putting their name, not to mention their credibility as representatives of Maori, on this bill they are also actively colluding with the Nats to push the bill through without public scrutiny.

The party’s actions are beginning to have an unintended result. The party is beginning to vacate the middle ground. If the leadership is not careful Hone will pick up dissatisfied left voters while Labour will swoop upon the middle ground. Overwhelmingly, Maori tend to vote left. The Maori Party knows this but does not appear to appreciate it. As the party continues to move right they are distancing themselves from their largest constituency. Clearly this is unwise.

When Hone launches his new party (by no means is that a foregone conclusion but I am picking that he will) he will pick up every Maori vote left of the Maori Party. The challenge for Labour is to pre-empt Hone. Labour needs to target the left vote before Hone has the chance. Strike while he is out of the picture. If Labour is complacent Hone will, without doubt, solidify the left vote and stymie Labour. It is notoriously difficult to get people to alter their political allegiances; therefore Labour will have little chance of altering the current away from Hone and towards Labour unless they are quick off the mark and thoughtful in their approach.

A few slogans and soundbites will not do it. Labour needs to get out on the road. Beat Hone at his own game. Of course the chances of this are slim. Hone speaks to Maori and they listen, because he speaks like them. Labour, at the moment, speaks in tongues. The message is not coherent, the message is not positive, the message does not resonate. Labour does not have a coherent Maori team focussing on a coherent issue. Kelvin Jones is always talking about looking forward and not back, Shane Jones is always throwing around labels, Parekura and Nanaia stand mute while the rest are nameless faces rarely seen outside Bowen House. This is not good enough. If Labour wants to re gain the Maori vote the party must centralise. One message, one team and one goal.

In my opinion Hone will be laughing all the way to the Cabinet Table with Maori voters in tow. Labour just does not seem to be up to the task.

I support Hone and I support his objectives. However, I want to see a genuine contest of ideas. I don’t want to support Hone because he is my only option. I want to support the party with the best policy and to a certain extent personalities. But Labour is offering me nothing. Looks like Hone is it then.

Matt McCarten on Hone Harawira

Matt McCarten, in an excellent piece in The Herald on Sunday, has suggested that the Hone Harawira expulsion could determine the election. Matt, who is a close advisor to Hone, thinks Hone will form a new party and target the party vote. I guess this almost confirms that Hone will form a new party. However, I am unsure that Hone has the time, skills and support to form a new party. In a previous column Matt made it pretty clear that he is not involved in the formation of a new party. Sue Bradford appears to be in favour one minute and then downplays her enthusiasm the next. Without Matt’s involvement Hone will not be able to delegate the groundwork to a capable pair of hands. Parliamentary and electorate work is all consuming. Hone simply does not have the time to form and launch a new party without experienced operators like Matt and Sue Bradford. Another problem is Hone will find it hard to attract the administrative and political talent needed to form, launch and sustain a party. Let’s be honest, Hone will need the services of youngish, Pakeha, urban middle class administrators and political operatives, however attracting said talent will be difficult. This demographic is hardly responsive to some of Hone strongly held opinions.

But for arguments sake let’s say Hone does form a new party. Matt tells us Hone will run a campaign against the MCA bill, low wages, welfare reform, GST and mining. Matt thinks these issues will mobilise support among Maori and non-Maori working class folk. I am not so sure. Matt’s showed us in Mana that mobilising the poor, not so much the working poor rather beneficiaries, is near impossible. Of the above campaign issues only the MCA bill and mining have proved widely contentious. However, mining was a middle class issue in that it mobilised the middle class, the poor were, well visibly at least, indifferent. Furthermore, the MCA bill has proven more of a Maori concern. Pakeha concern is comparatively light – with the exception of a few rednecks. With the above in mind it becomes obvious that the MCA bill and mining, the two big issues if you like, play to contrasting groups. Low wages, welfare reform and GST have failed to elicit a whisper from those most affected. Without doubt the working poor and beneficiaries are feeling or will feel the bite but there is simply no response. How will Hone ignite and organise a response to these changes? The poor are politically apathetic and apathy has no straightforward cure. Having said that if there is anyone who can speak to the poor and disaffected it is Hone Harawira. I should not write him off so easily.

Matt also suggests that Pita Sharples and Rahui Katene will find it difficult to retain their seats without Hone’s endorsement. Again, I think this is goes a bit far. Pita is damaged but no more than Shane Jones. Shane is hardly an endearing figure and Maori will not return to Labour so easily. Maori are excellent strategic voters and there is really no benefit in returning Shane Jones as the member for Tamaki Makaurau. Hone’s supporters are not going to vote for a man who labels their man a “hoodlum”. Ultimately the voters of Tamaki Makaurau have a shit choice – Shane’s vision is a corporate vision with working class overtones. Pita’s vision is a Maori vision hijacked by a corporate agenda. So it’s basically a contest between which corporate you like best. Arrogant and abrasive Jones or affable and approachable Sharples? The choice is clear. (I will address Rahui Katene and Te Tai Tonga in my next post).

The constituency for a new left party exists. The challenge is to mobilise that constituency. I would love to see a new left party with Hone and Sue Bradford, the two most effective backbenchers in recent memory, and Matt McCarten, the most skilled operator in NZ politics. However, I worry that the practical challenges a new party would face are too great. I hope I’m wrong.

Hint, hint

From Hone Harawira;

I can announce that it is my intention to continue to serve the Tai Tokerau as an independent MP, and that I will contest the 2011 elections as either an independent or as a member of a new political movement in Aotearoa.

Interestingly, Hone indicates that he is open to joining or forming a new party. It is hard to know what to make of this. On the one hand you could speculate that Hone is sending a subtle message to the apparently numerous young activists who are calling for a new left party. However, on the other hand you could say Hone is just playing a sensible game. As a general rule you never rule anything out in politics. I tend to think Hone is declaring his availability as an anchor for a new left party. Not necessarily declaring his intention to actively form such a party, I think he intends that work to fall upon the young activists who are keen for a new left party.

What is also interesting about the above statement is that Hone rules out the possibility of seeking refuge with the Greens. Up until recently Hone has advocated for a strategic alliance between his former party and the Greens. However, Hone must realise he will not fit within the Greens’ new found eco-capitalist framework. Ultimately, Hone’s identity as a tino rangatiratanga advocate clashes with the Green’s identity as a middle class environmental party.

The statement continues;

It is also my intention to go back to my electorate and to supporters around the country over the next month to inform them of my intentions and to seek their support

It sounds as if Hone has already decided whether he will remain independent or form a new party. It appears that it is just a matter of seeking the endorsement of his supporters. Martyn Bradbury must be getting pretty excited.   

In terms of the election itself, I have advised the leadership of the party that it is not my intention to contest any of the other Maori seats in 2011, and I understand that the Maori Party has agreed not to stand a candidate against me in 2011 either.

So Hone is ruling out forming an alternative Maori Party, however, not a new left wing party. Remember a new left party would use Te Tai Tokerau as their MMP anchor, therefore contesting other electorates is merely a waste of resources.

To conclude, Hone has indicated, quite expressly, he may contest the election as a member of a “new political movement”, i.e. a new left party. This will give hope to the likes of Martyn Bradbury. However, one must exercise cautious optimism. As Chris Trotter points out here and here, forming a new party is far, far easier said than done.  

On Hone Harawira forming a new party

Some left wing commentators, namely Martyn Bradbury, are pushing the idea that Hone Harawira should, whether he is expelled or not, form a new left wing party. I see a number of problems with this idea.

Every party has a recognised identity. The question is will Hone, as a Maori nationalist, fit within the identity of a far left party comprised of rejected social democrats? Will he fit within a party that’s stands for certain political values above and beyond tino rangatiratanga? With this in mind it is conceivable that stern tensions will exist, and at some point erupt, over the policy priorities and direction of the party. Willie Jackson makes the point that Maori interests “might not always fall within a left wing paradigm”. The left is not always automatically analogous with Maori interests. Essentially, I do not think Hone is flexible enough in his ideology to accept working within the framework of a far left party nor sufficiently interested in responding to the needs of the constituents of the far left.   

It is probably also worth considering the personalities involved. Matt McCarten and Hone Harawira are the two strongest personalities in politics, no doubt about that. Although Matt is incredibly principled he is a pragmatist first. He knows the importance of electoral success. On the other hand Hone is principled first and pragmatic second. What happens when Matt’s pragmatism clashes with Hone’s principles? A party meltdown in my opinion. Hone will no longer compromise his principles for short term electoral or governmental success whereas Matt knows the importance of winning at any cost. Matt is a realist and values power. Hone is an idealist who values tino rangatiratanga. Such a clash of values will hardly breed stability.

Marty Mars and Willie Jackson have floated the idea of Hone forming an alternative Maori Party. An alternative Maori party will have to convince Maori that they, unlike the original Maori Party, will not sacrifice Maori interests for short term gain in government (i.e. they will not swallow National’s poison), therefore they are ultimately better representatives of Maori interests.

The problem with an alternative Maori party is that it will have no resources. Let’s be honest, Hone’s supporters hardly have deep pockets. It is also unknown how many rank and file members would jump waka. Enough to constitute a registered party (I think 500 members are required)? Without competent and experienced managers the formation of a new party is a logistical nightmare. Under a new left party the ground work can be left to Matt McCarten but under a new Maori party who would Hone delegate too? Furthermore, where will advisors and administrators come from and who would be willing to stand for such a party?

I think I would prefer to see Hone Harawira stand as an independent for now. It is too late in the piece to go pulling political parties out of your arse. As an independent Hone could create a strong narrative. Portraying himself as a man of integrity, alienated for speaking truth to power, denouncing, as Gordon Campbell put it, the brown sell outs in Cabinet. Against this the MP have no effective counter narrative. However, if Hone were to form a new left party or new Maori party the current Maori Party could taint him as a prostitute to politicians of yesteryear or a trouble maker with only conflict on his mind.

So there are problems with Hone hitching it with a new left party or pitching into a new Maori party. Either way Hone does not have many favourable options on the table. Perhaps his best choice is to stand as an independent. To be honest I wouldn’t know. This is all speculation. I'm just hoping for resolution and hopefully that resolution will not involve expulsion.