The real impediment to a Mana-Maori merger (and it's not National)

Mana Party President and tino rangatiratanga advocate Annette Sykes

Claire Trevett reports:

The Maori Party and the Mana Party have reached a truce of sorts after a meeting between the parties' hierarchy last night. 

Mana President Annette Sykes met the Maori Party's co-vice president Ken Mair last night and the two parties agreed to work framework setting out areas of policy on which they would work together. That is due to be launched in early 2014 and it likely to include areas such as Maori unemployment, poor housing, and child poverty.

Yesterday I ran through the archives of this blog. I was disappointed with the tone (and some of the substance). It was angry. But it was a reflection of Maori politics at the time.

The seeds of tension emerged in 2008. The Maori Party had traveled the country to secure the membership's consent to a supply and confidence arrangement with National. By most accounts, the party leadership won an overwhelming mandate and there was optimism in most circles. But time eroded the consensus. Difficult policy choices started to build. The party misstepped when it supported the ETS and pressure was applied on its MPs to pull their support for Budget 2010 and the GST rise.

Come 2011 the tensions had swelled and the understanding between the Maori Party's radicals and the conservatives – meaning the idea that a Maori political movement is strongest when its united - came crashing down. The rest is history. Hone Harawira broke away with half of the Maori Party and Mana was born. Political parties reap what they sow.

But a relationship accord between Mana and the Maori Party (hopefully) signals that the tide is going out on that conflict. There’s an increasing acceptance that Maori are better off because of the Maori Party’s relationship with National. It hasn't been progress, but the Maori Party has acted as a buffer against decline.

Yet one impediment remains - and it's not necessarily National. The conflict is between Mana and the Maori Party’s conception of politics. Mana is ideological, but the Maori Party acts as post-ideological.

Working "at the table" is the Maori Party's ideology. Party policy is dictated by what can be achieved at the table and what is necessary to remain at the table. There's a pragmatic logic in that, sure, but the consequence is that Maori politics is confined to what's palatable to the ninth floor. There's also an element of circular reasoning when being at the table is both the means and the end.

So if being at the table is the Maori Party's raison d'être then there's little room for Mana - a party that values external change and leftwing ideologies. After all, Hone Harawira threatened the Maori Party's place at the table and he was removed. 

Yet maybe the Maori Party is on the right side of history. The trajectory of Maori politics hasn’t been towards revolution or wholesale structural change. Leaders of the later stages of the Maori renaissance and now the Maori Party, Iwi Leaders and many others prefer integration into New Zealand power structures. The attraction among battle-weary activists and heroes of the movement is clear. But it’s not an approach that attracts Mana. And that’s the real impediment to a merger – not National.

Turia and Sharples reconsider retirement

Audrey Young reports:

Maori Party co-leaders Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples have revealed they are reconsidering retiring from politics next election - just as a new poll shows them potentially holding the balance of power.

Mrs Turia and Dr Sharples had indicated that the 2011 election would be their last.

But they are reconsidering after being asked repeatedly by supporters, a party official said.

This is the party’s only option. Te Ururoa Flavell’s majority in Waiariki is soft and will weaken in the face of a strong candidate and campaign. If Tauranga or Tuwharetoa fall towards Annette Sykes, or the Labour candidate evenly splits the area, then a win in Rotorua will not be enough to carry Flavell.

The same is roughly true of Pita Sharples. John Tamihere is considering a run at the 2014 election and Mana will stand a strong candidate, potentially Nga Puhi man Clinton Dearlove. Sharples came within a whisker of defeat in 2011 and that, quite worryingly for the Maori Party, was against a Shane Jones whose mind was on his personal life and a Mana candidate who entered late. Hypothetically Sharples will be up against the strongest candidate Labour can field, read Tamihere, and one of the strongest Mana can field, read Dearlove.

Tamihere, along with his likely campaign manager Willie Jackson, are probably the best Maori campaigners in Auckland. Labour also has access to the likes of Shane Phillips and Kelvin Davis. The Maori Party, on the other hand, don’t appear to have access to like campaigners.

Having said that, Pita Sharples unseated in Tamihere in 2005. However, the Sharples of today is nothing on the Sharples of seven years ago. Sharples is tired and not cutting it well, I think at least, as a Minister at the moment. He is slow and does not appear as intellectually capable as he once was. In contrast, Tamihere has, minus one or two minor controversies, rebuilt his reputation and continues his good work with the Waipereira Trust.

As for Tariana Turia, she’ll win no matter who runs against her. Turia knows, perhaps better than her colleagues, that without her and Sharples – the party’s anchors – the Maori Party will fall. The tide is going out on the Maori Party and rising on the Mana Party. For that reason, she knows that she needs to stay. Such a move, however, only seems to prolong the inevitable. Without an ideological shift and tangible wins for Maori, the Maori Party is paddling against the current.

My picks and my votes

If you want to know my picks for the Maori electorates you can take a look at my latest post over at Pundit. My calls are largely consistent with what I’ve been saying for the past year.

On a slightly related note I’m going to tell you how I plan to vote. Deciding to whom I’m going to give my electorate vote isn’t hard. Readers will know I’m openly supportive of Annette Sykes so I guess it’s no secret that’s where my electorate vote will fall. Yes, I live in Wellington, but I’m still enrolled in Waiariki (I’ll get round to changing this soon). If I was enrolled in Te Tai Tonga I’d be casting a vote for Rino Tirikatene. Rahui Katene hasn’t impressed me over the past three years.

Readers may, however, be a little surprised when it comes to my party vote. I thought about this pretty hard and I’ve decided to cast my party vote for the Greens – not Mana. Although I support Mana and almost everything the party stands for, I don’t agree with all of their policies. On the other hand, scrolling through the Greens catalogue of policies I found myself agreeing with almost everything. My vote will not be informed on Maori issues alone, if it was I’d vote Mana, but across the board the Greens have the most comprehensive set of policies and, in my opinion, the best plan for moving New Zealand forward. This doesn’t mean I’m all of a sudden an enthusiastic Green Party supporter. I really, really, really dislike Russell Norman.

I should add I’m not voting strategically. I’m voting on principle. Annette Sykes is the best candidate in Waiariki and the Greens offer the best plan for New Zealand. That’s it.

The week in Maori politics (updated)

It was slow going in Maori politics this week. Below I’ve summarised and commented on the main events.


Monday: 

News on Monday was dominated by the Mana Movement’s campaign launch at a Marae in South Auckland. In a quite deliberate and symbolic move the launch was held on Guy Fawkes day. There wasn’t really anything radical or new to come out of the day.

Native Affairs Kowhiri 11 Waiariki debate was held on Monday night. Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori Party), Annette Sykes (Mana) and Louis Te Kani (Labour) went head to head on issues like family violence and a motorway that will cut through the Puarenga Stream. Interestingly, Louis Te Kani put his head out and said, should he win, he will resign if the motorway goes ahead. In contrast, Labour’s Steve Chadwick (who was at the debate) supports the motorway (she didn’t point that out at the debate though of course). I called the debate for Annette and sparked heated debate with many commenters calling it for Te Ururoa and some even expressing support for Louis Te Kani.

A Te Karere Digi-poll surveying the Tamaki Makaurau electorate was released on Monday and showed Pita Sharples enjoys a comfortable lead over Labour’s Shane Jones and Mana’s Kereama Pene. This wasn’t in itself a surprise, but the extent of Pita’s support was. The poll indicated Pita enjoys a clear majority (58% support).


Tuesday: 

Tuesday was an empty day. The highlight was probably Kereama Pene saying Mana will not sit down with Kupapa. This we already know, but it was fascinating to see Pene invoke that sort of language. In fact, it was fascinating to see him speak to media at all. I would have thought that Matt McCarten would have tied a tight leash to him.


Wednesday: 

Another slow day. The only highlight was the Ikaroa-Rawhiti debate between Parekura Horomia (Labour), Na Raihania (Maori Party) and Tawhai McClutchie (Mana). I called the debate for Parekura, but I think had Na not endorsed National Standards the debate could have easily gone his way. Parekura has done his campaign no disservice and will probably cruise to victory.


Thursday: 

A very busy day as far as the Maori Party was concerned. The party released their education policy which called for universal access to Te Reo Maori in schools. A great policy. If Maori, or non-Maori too, want to learn te reo then it should be available as a subject at all schools – or at the very least at all state schools. Te Reo Maori is an official language, an integral part of New Zealand society and giving effect to te reo is recognising the Crown’s obligation under the Treaty to actively protect Maori taonga.

Tariana Turia also called for a review of Te Puni Kokiri. I’m not sure if this is needed, but it sounds reasonable. What bad can come of it? None in my mind.


Friday: 

In the Herald I stick it to Labour for failing to enter or influence Maori political discourse. Labour is leaving Mana and the Maori Party to direct Maori political discourse and, as a result, allowing the two parties an opportunity to eat in to one of Labour's traditional support bases i.e. Maori voters. I need to eat some of my words though because what does Goff go and do – he makes a headline at Waatea News. Let’s hope to see some follow up from Labour.

Hone Harawira participates in a live chat on Stuff.co.nz. Hone confirms he will never work with National and provides a few insightful one-liners like "Charities exist where governments fail".
The Maori Party policy on making te reo universally available in schools still has legs.

Waiariki debate continued...

My last post (and it was hardly a post – more like a few sentences) generated a passionate response from camp Annette and camp Te Ururoa. The comments fell into three broad categories: 1. Annette smashed Te Ururoa and he is “the one percent iwi elite scumbag”, as one fiery commenter put it 2. Annette is, in the words of the first commenter, a “BMW” (Bitter Maori Woman) with nothing more than a big mouth while Te Ururoa is quietly doing the job. 3. We, as in Maori, need to stop turning on each other.

I’m glad this blog is stimulating debate, but please, please can we keep it civil. Calling someone a “scumbag” or a “BMW” probably doesn’t help anyone.

Anyway, a few words on the debate itself. Annette won, hands down. She controlled the debate. Te Ururoa found himself having to respond to her attacks, or allegations is probably the nicer word here, therefore, he was unable to control the agenda. Annette backed him into a corner and portrayed him in an unfavourable light. It was masterful politics. However, Te Ururoa responded almost as well. He didn’t come out of the corner fighting, instead he steadily moved himself out with careful justifications and a focus on the Maori Party’s achievements. Te Ururoa’s responses detracted from the potency of Annette’s attacks (or allegations) and helped build the picture that he is a respectful person (which I’m sure he is).

Annette is prone to well crafted and well delivered rhetoric, so naturally this is where she stole the show. Te Ururoa built the best image, but Annette spoke the best. Each answer she provided explored Mana policy, at times she digged at her opponents and, most importantly, she linked every answer to themes that will resonate with Maori. For example tino rangatiratanga, anti-capitalism and the effects of colonisation. It was masterful politics.

Te Ururoa also provided in depth and considered answers. But often he found himself having to defend himself or his party rather than going on the front foot like Annette. However, he still managed to paint a good picture of himself as respectful and considered. Louis Te Kani, unfortunately, wasn’t a feature. He found himself relying too heavily on non-specific soundbites. A little depth from him would have gone a long way.

On a similar note the Ikaroa-Rawhiti debate is on tonight at 9pm. I’ll probably write on it tomorrow.  

   

Native Affairs Kowhiri 11: Waiariki

Well, there's no doubt about it, Annette Sykes toppled Te Ururoa Flavell and Louis Te Kani in tonight's debate. I'm not going to write anything substantive on the debate here, instead look out for my review in Wednesday's Rotorua Daily Post. I might reproduce the piece and add to it on Thursday depending on how much time I have.

Waiariki: Electorate analysis

There are three marginal Maori seats – Te Tai Tonga, Tamaki Makaurau and Waiariki. Of the three, Waiariki is the hardest to call. Te Ururoa Flavell is facing a strong challenge from Mana’s Annette Sykes while Labour’s Louis Te Kani could gallop up the middle if Annette falls short.

Today’s post is the second in a series analysing the Maori electorates. I’ll look at the electorate profile, the candidates and then I’ll offer my thoughts on how and to whom the electorate will fall.


Profile:

(Here is the link to the electorate profile from the Parliamentary Library)

Waiariki wraps around the Bay of Plenty coast from Cape Runaway in the east to Waihi Beach. The boundary then extends inwards to Turangi. The main centres in Waiariki are Tauranga, Rotorua, Taupo and Whakatane. Smaller centres include Kawerau, Opotiki and Te Puke. The tangata whenua in Waiariki whakapapa to either the Mataatua Waka or the Te Arawa Waka. However, some hapu derive from peoples who predate the arrival of both Waka.

The most populous Iwi in Waiariki is Tuhoe (Mataatua) followed by Nga Puhi (Mataatua), Ngati Tuwharetoa (Te Arawa), Te Arawa (Te Arawa), Ngati Porou (Nukutaimemeha and others) and Ngati Awa (Mataatua).

There are over 82,000 Maori in Waiariki. 41.7% are under 30 while only 12% are over 65. Waiariki has the highest rate of Maori language speakers with 26.9% speaking fluent Te Reo. Little over 5% of Maori in Waiariki hold a bachelors degree or higher. In terms of educational achievement Waiariki ranks in the bottom half of Maori electorates. Waiariki isn’t an overly religious electorate, again, ranking in the bottom half of Maori electorates when examining religious affiliation. The median household income in Waiariki is $45,200 while the New Zealand median is $59,000. 36.8% of households in Waiariki earn $50,000 or over. Again, this ranks in the bottom half of Maori electorates. Almost 25% of households do not have access to a landline while over 50% do not have access to the internet (this presents significant difficulty when it comes to polling the electorate). 26.7% of Maori in Waiariki are on some sort of government benefit.

At the 2005 election Te Ururoa polled at almost 55%. Labour’s Mita Ririnui managed to pull in 39% of the vote. The late Hawea Vercoe sponged 6% of the vote. Labour did well in the party vote coming in at 53%. The Maori Party followed with 31% and New Zealand First with 7%.

Te Ururoa Flavell increased his majority in 2008 and utterly smashed Mita Ririnui securing almost 70% of the vote. However, the Labour Party captured a plurality in the party vote stakes with 45.5%. The Maori Party secured 35.5%. New Zealand First polled well gaining almost 8% of the vote while National and the Greens did very poorly with only 5% and 2% respectively.


Candidates:

Three candidates will contest Waiariki. The Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell (incumbent), Labour’s Louis Te Kani and Mana Movement’s Annette Sykes.

• Te Ururoa Flavell:

Te Ururoa affiliates to Ngati Rangiwewehi (Te Arawa) and Nga Puhi (Mataatua) and was born in Tokoroa (Te Tai Hauauru), but was raised in Waiariki attending Sunset Primary School in Rotorua. Te Ururoa trained as a teacher and has worked in education most of his life. Entering Parliament in 2005 Te Ururoa became an active Select Committee member and in 2010 his Gambling (Gambling Harm Reduction) Amendment Bill was drawn from the ballot and will probably have its first reading next term.

• Annette Sykes: 

Annette has extensive affiliations across Te Arawa including Ngati Pikiao and Ngati Makino. Annette also affiliates to Taiwhakaea (Ngati Awa) and Hamua (Tuhoe). Annette was schooled in Kawerau attending Kawerau North School, Kawerau Intermediate and then Kawerau College. Annette studied law and politics at Victoria and Auckland Universities and also studied in Singapore. Over the past thirty years Annette has been one the most prominent tino rangatiratanga activists and a tireless supporter of human rights. Prior to full time full time campaigner Annette was a partner at Aurere Law in Rotorua.

• Louis Te Kani: 

Unfortunately, I can’t find any reference to Louis tribal affiliations, but I assume that he connects to Te Arawa and the tribes of Tauranga Moana. Te Kani was born and bred in Tauranga and works in Rotorua (Louis is a very prominent lawyer in the city). Louis comes from a Labour background (he’s also Ratana) and was shoulder tapped to stand in the seat.


Analysis:

Waiariki is one the harder electorates to call. The Maori electorates aren’t homogenous – there are separate and often disparate communities of interest, there are different issues at play for different iwi, there is sometimes an urban/rural dichotomy and inter-tribal dynamics can favour/discriminate against some candidates.

I tend to think Annette will win, but this isn’t guaranteed.

One cannot underestimate the importance of a strong campaign. At this point in the game Annette is running the stronger campaign due, in part, to superior campaign infrastructure and a reflex swing against the Maori Party. Annette is also driving the narrative.

Annette can tap a deeper well of campaign support than Te Ururoa and Louis. Mana can rely on numerous branches across the electorate whereas Te Ururoa can’t (the Maori Party branches are weak to non-existent in Waiariki) and Louis can not tap the same numbers that Mana can. Annette even has a big campaign bus like John Key and National’s bus in the 2008 election. In terms of hoardings, however, I would (anecdotally speaking) say Louis Te Kani has the most.

A well defined message can go a long way. Annette has, I think, the perfect throwaway line: a vote for Te Ururoa is a vote for National. The Nat’s poll horrendously among Maori in Waiariki (see above) and much of the reflex swing against the Maori Party is due to their support for the Nat’s on, for example, tax and the MCA Act. Annette needs to cement the narrative that the Maori Party, and by extension Te Ururoa, have sold out Maori interests.

Te Ururoa enjoys only soft support outside of Rotorua. Tauranga is anyones game, Whakatane and Taupo are marginal and Kawerau, Te Teko, Ruatoki (and the Tuhoe rohe generally), Opotiki, Turangi and Te Kaha (as well as the rest of the East Coast) will probably fall Annette’s way.

Booth by booth the party vote is fairly consistent across the electorate. In case you wondered I’m examining the party vote because the candidate vote is misleading given that only two candidates stood and the losing candidate was weak (to the point of not even trying).

The distance between Labour and the Maori Party is fairly even across all the polling places. In the Eastern Bay the tino rangatiratanga vote (TR) - i.e. Maori Party vote - was strongest in Te Kaha (as well as Cape Runaway and Torere), Te Teko, Waimana (as well as Kutarere), Ruatoki and, surprisingly, Ohope. In Rotorua the tino rangatiratanga vote was strong in Mamaku, Koutu and Glenholme/Springfield (the polling place was on Devon St which is part of Springfield and Glenholme). In Tauranga the TR vote was strong in Bethlehem and Waitangi only. The TR vote was strong in the southern end of the Taupo region, in particular Turangi, Tokaanu and Wairakei.

Annette’s, for want of a better term, tino rangatiratanga credentials are far stronger than Te Ururoas. She can stand on her record as an advocate for Maori. Maori know who Annette Sykes is and Maori know what she stands for. Annette can easily eat into Te Ururoa’s vote in the above areas because of this. However, to win the electorate she needs to siphon sufficient votes in Opotiki, Rotorua, Tauranga, or Taupo. Or she needs to win one of those areas in large numbers. Opotiki is Whakatohea territory. Whakatohea is a rural Iwi and, in my experience, staunch tino rangatiratanga. Annette's rhetoric and record will appeal. Rotorua is a hard sell for Annette. I have mentioned one of the disputed attitudes of Te Arawa that may count against her. However, I think Annette will do well in Ngati Pikiao and in Rotoiti. I think she will not do too well in Ngati Whakaue though. I tend to think Tauranga will fall Louis Te Kani’s way – at least in Tauranga proper. On the outskirts I think Te Ururoa will hold his vote. I think Tauranga Maori are quite unionised (e.g. port workers). Annette could do well in Taupo, but it depends on how well she campaigns. Mana infrastructure in Taupo is fairly strong. The Party is standing a general seat candidate so Annette could tap the general seat candidate’s networks.

Te Ururoa will almost certainly lose the East Coast from Opotiki to Cape Runaway. He’s played the invisible man over the past three years. Initially, the Maori Party, morespecially Te Ururoa, did not back Te Whanau a Apanui in their opposition to oil prospecting. The job was left to Hone Harawira (who of course isn’t even the local MP), Greenpeace and, but to a lesser extent, the Greens. Te Ururoa will also lose Tuhoe and Kawerau as well. In the aftermath of the Terror raids Te Ururoa did a brilliant job attacking the then Labour Government and he also provided outstanding support to his constituents. However, Annette has played a major role as well representing many of the Tuhoe accused/former accused. She has been their since the beginning and stuck at it. Annette also whakapapas to Tuhoe and her politics appeals to them too (think Te Mana Motuhake o Tuhoe – Tuhoe independence). Te Ururoa will probably lose Kawerau too. Annette is a local girl who knows the town and the issues. Te Ururoa hasn’t been very active in Kawerau so the town does not really have much of a connection with him.

Te Ururoa will probably lose significant support along the coastline from Whakatane to Waihi Beach. Iwi along the coast were, or are, unhappy with the MCA Act. However, it is a moot point whether this alone will be enough to swing the vote in the Coast. If it is that vote will fall to Annette. Maori still have not forgiven Labour for the foreshore and seabed debacle in 2004.

(Here is the link to the booth by booth summary)


Conclusion:

I doubt Louis will gallop up the middle. I think Annette can steal enough of Te Ururoa’s vote outside of Rotorua to steal the seat from him. Louis will do well in Tauranga, but to win you need to win more than one of the main centres. Annette’s victory is not guaranteed. If Te Ururoa can execute a strong campaign he will retain the seat. But this is unlikely. There are few functional Maori Party branches, few resources and few functioning networks. The momentum is in Annette’s favour.

Mana: a discussion

John Moore has done some great work analysing the Mana Movement. His latest post at Liberation is a must read. This from the post itself:

Guest blogger John Moore argues that the selection of Kereama Pene represents the marginalisation of the left within the Mana Party. For although the party appears radical on paper, in reality a number of Mana’s leaders aim to cut deals and form alliances with parties that would have little interest in Mana’s ‘socialist’ policies. Therefore, the selection of Karema Pene sends a signal that Mana is both ideologically flexible and that the party’s socialists are being kept on a tight leach. All of this amounts to the attempt by a section of Mana’s leadership to present the party as respectable and non-threatening. So, is the game up for Mana’s left?

What needs to be understood is that the left in Mana is a minority, albeit an influential minority. The party’s rank and file, or the flaxroot if you will, consists almost exclusively of ex-Maori Party members and young Maori with a tino rangatiratanga bent. There is a scattering of socialists and political newbies (mainly Maori). The left do not have the strength of numbers at the base of the party to exercise any influence on decisions like candidate selection, policy remits etc.

As Matt McCarten takes a step back Gerard Hehir is taking a step forward. Gerard’s presence and prominence in the party ensures that the left punch above their weight in the party. Hone has a great deal of respect for Gerard and the work he does for Mana.

The marriage between Hone and Matt, read Maori nationalism and socialism, is one of convenience. Mana Movement satisfies both men’s ambitions. Matt serves to extend Hone’s electoral base while Hone provides the genesis for Matt’s dream of building a working class movement. However, both men share a similar political outlook. Hone is the product of a Maori nationalist upbringing, but he is intuitively left-wing (as are most Maori nationalists). Matt is the product of an underclass upbringing, but he maintains an intuitive Maori nationalist streak.  

Hone knows that he will not build the movement he dreams of without extending his base beyond hardcore Maori nationalists. Therefore, he will not allow the left to be marginalised. I think the decision was made not to veto Pene’s selection because Hone, and his advisers like Hehir and McCarten, felt that it did not pose a serious threat to the role of the left in the party.

An examination of Mana’s policy reveals a leftist bent. As I’ve said before the party’s policy platform is almost devoid of any tino rangatiratanga type policy.

I can almost guarantee that Hone will not enter a coalition government in the medium term. I say this because Hone has told me as much. Of course, circumstances change and so do a person’s intentions, but at this stage Hone appears unlikely to even consider lending support on a coalition or confidence and supply basis to any government. Mana is aiming in the short term to renter Parliament with, hopefully, two extra MPs - Annette Sykes and John Minto (and if things go better than expected Sue Bradford). In the medium term the party hopes to build a sustainable movement. Building a sustainable movement includes extending the party membership and implementing a succession plan. As an aside Maori politics specialist Veronica Tawhai is leading the party’s succession plan. In the long term the party will, inevitably, enter government. Forcing change from the streets is a nice concept, but a far fetched one in my opinion and Hone and co. know this. There are so many variables and the opposition (capitalism) is so overwhelming. Furthermore, Mana does not have the intellectual grunt at the moment to put forward a viable alternative to the current system.

Mana has a long way to go yet. The contradictions, nuances and ultimate direction of the party are yet to be settled. This is the nature of a new movement. In the mean time we can analyse and predict where the party is and will head, but, ultimately, we just don’t know enough yet.

  

Sexism and Maori

On Monday night Native Affairs ran a panel discussion with Dr Hone Kaa and Matt McCarten. The panel discussed the upcoming election as well as the Maori seats. Julian Wilcox, the host, suggested to Hone Kaa that Waiariki could go either way (to Te Ururoa or Annette), however Dr Kaa disagreed. He held that Waiariki is Te Ururoa’s because it is a “Wahine voice versus a Tane voice”. Dr Kaa then went onto say “given that tribal area (meaning Te Arawa)… how many women do you see speaking on a Marae there?” What he was implying is that Te Arawa is, and I wish there was a less offensive term for this, sexist. Although he did not come out and say so in certain terms, the implications of his statements are clear. 

It's sometimes said that Te Arawa is, to quote a very prominent Maori leader who shall remain nameless, “chauvinist”. Women are accorded a subordinate place on the Marae and the social hierarchy. I think Dr Kaa poses a valid question.

We know that on the arrival of Europeans, or more specifically missionaries, our Tikanga was warped to better reflect Christian notions of the place of women (i.e. as secondary to men) and we have yet to reclaim our original ideas about the role of women and their place in our world. Or, alternatively, we have yet to respond to and incorporate modern notions of the place of women. But is this a justification? Or is this really the case? I don’t really know.

Having said that, I doubt any perceived or real chauvinism on the part of Te Arawa will have much bearing on the result. The tribes of the Mataatua (Ngati Awa, Tuhoe, Whakatohea, Te Whanau a Apanui, Ngai Te Rangi and Ngati Pukenga – as well as Nga Puhi of course) accord women a special place as a result of two tipuna – Wairaka and Muriwai. Depending on whom you ask, Wairaka or Muriwai saved the Mataatua Waka on arrival in Whakatane. As a result of this women have always and continue to occupy a central role in the life of the aforementioned tribes. With this in mind, the perceived or real chauvinism of Te Arawa will not have much, if any, affect on the election as the tribes of the Mataatua Waka outnumber those of the Te Arawa Waka.

(In no way is what I write a slur against Te Arawa. I'm probably woefully wrong).

Bradford for Mana

Sue Bradford has finally confirmed she will stand in Waitakere. From the NZ Herald:

Former Green MP Sue Bradford will stand for the Mana Party in Waitakere - but will seek the party vote only to increase Labour's chances of taking the seat back from National's Paula Bennett.

Ms Bradford was formally selected by Mana to stand in the seat yesterday.

She said there was a risk she would split the vote on the left, but she intended to make it clear she only wanted the party vote for Mana in the electorate.

This is part of Mana’s media strategy: Stand high profile candidates in tight electorates and, consequently, generate continuous headlines. Given that Mana missed out on broadcast funding failed to apply, they needed to investigate other ways to generate publicity.

Sue will be ranked at number four (Annette will be two and John Minto three). Sue will be a useful addition to Mana. Hone and Annette are primarily concerned with tino rangatiratanga, Matt McCarten and his people are primarily concerned with revolutionary politics and economic reform, Sue, however, is concerned with bread and butter social justice issues, for example restoring benefits to a humane level.

Hopefully Sue pushes Mana to take up a formal position on issues like abortion, gay marriage and women’s rights.     

Annette Sykes will stand

I am pleased to confirm that Annette Sykes will contest the Waiariki seat for Mana.

Mauriora!

Flavell swings behind Tuhoe

The Maori Party are coming down strong on the, for want of a better term, Urewera issue. From RNZ:

The Maori MP for Bay of Plenty is talking to the Tuhoe tribe about taking a new claim to the Waitangi Tribunal, arguing the police 2007 raids in Ruatoki breached the Treaty of Waitangi.

The member for Waiariki, Te Ururoa Flavell, says the Crown should be answerable, particularly for the way people were innocently caught up in the actions - and for those who've now had charges against them dropped.

The Maori Party MP says his caucus and Tuhoe are looking for more than an apology.
He says he and his colleagues have talked about compensation, given some people have had to bear the brunt of criticism and the stigma associated with the raids.

Mr Flavell says the issue is so big his party is looking into asking for a commission of inquiry of some kind.

At the conclusion of this saga a commission of inquiry will be mandatory – whether the remaining defendants are found guilty or not. I think the option of civil suits is closed in this instance, I certainly don’t say that with certainty though. Te Ururoa has highlighted two options for some kind of relief/accountability (a commission of inquiry and the Waitangi Tribunal) and other options exist as well including the Independent Police Conduct Authority. On another note it amazes me that Helen Clark, Michael Cullen and the then Police Minister (Annette King I think it was) have managed to escape criticism for their role in approving the raids and subsequent legal battle. Surely the buck stops at the top, and this went straight to the Prime Ministers Office.

I expect to see Hone Harawira dive all over this issue. Tuhoe is one of Maoridom’s staunchest Iwi, if not the staunchest, and is Mana’s for the taking. However, if Hone remains quiet and leaves the issue to Te Ururoa Tuhoe may not tag along with Mana so willing. Tuhoe people have long memories. This is where Mana needs someone like Annette Sykes and her skills as a lawyer and as a wahine toa.

Mana Party AGM

The Mana Party AGM was held over the weekend in Auckland. I don't have time to write a substantive post so I’ll list a few observations I’ve made (for the record I did not attend):

·         Mana is Maori led, but working class focussed. Two socialist (McCarten and Minto) and two Maori nationalists (Harawira and Sykes) form the head of the party. Tim Selwyn attributes this to Matt McCarten attempting to reconcile the two factions of the party – a smart move in my opinion. 

·         Mana will target the party vote. Mana will hope to attract disgruntled Green/Labour voters, the entire Maori Party vote and non-voters. 

·         Mana will stand in all seven Maori seats. Mana will hope to stand high profile candidates who can create talking points. Mana does not expect to win all of the electorates; rather the party sees standing in all seven electorates as a profile building exercise. 

·         Mana risks becoming a party of recycled politicians. The top brass of the party reads like a socialist party from the 80’s – Bradford, McCarten, Minto, Jackson – these guys are yesterday’s (wo)men. Sure, they have a part to play, but Mana needs an injection of new blood to remain relevant and avoid been labelled a party of old hacks. 

·         Mana enjoys access to a brilliant policy team which includes academic Veronica Tawhai and the amazing Jane Kelsey (I hope she is a top 5 list candidate). 

·         Mana is relying on prominent Unite members, for example Gerard Hehir, for strategic advice and campaigning infrastructure/expertise. 

·         Mana branches are now established all over the country, however most branches seem to be concentrated in the upper half of the North Island. 

·         Mana must attract experts. It is difficult to attract Maori political specialists because most, if not all, are working for existing parties and are, as a result, loyal to those parties. Mana does not have the money, or at least I think they don’t, to employ contractors. The party, therefore, needs to woo people who are ideologically sympathetic, for example former Alliance operators like Chris Ford.

·         Mana will stand candidates in general electorates where those candidates have a realistic chance of attracting votes and building the party’s profile. All candidates will stand at their own expense. 

·         Angeline Greensill may have another go in Hauraki-Waikato and Annette Sykes is sure to stand in Waiariki.  

The Mana Party list...

Blogging can get pretty boring at times, especially when you only write analysis. I feel like a bit of a change so I’m going to offer my opinion on what the Mana Party list should look like. In no way is this any indication of what the list will look like, just my personal wish list I guess. It is important to have an ethnic, gender and age mix. I am curious to know what readers think as well.

1. Hone. Obviously.
2. Annette Sykes. Annette is heavily involved in the Mana Party and will, if she stands, win Waiariki.
3. Jane Kelsey. Professor Kelsey is, I think, involved with the party. Kelsey is intelligent, articulate, successful, left and an advocate for Maori.
4. Martyn ‘Bomber’ Bradbury. Yup, I said it. Bomber is opinionated, funny and, despite what others may say, intelligent. He would make a great MP.
5. Meng Foon. Meng is serving his fourth term as Mayor of Gisborne. He is a New Zealander of Chinese descent and speaks fluent Cantonese and fluent Maori. Pretty impressive if you ask me. A man of broad appeal.
6. Helen Kelly. Helen is clearly to the left of Labour. My natural inclination is to say she is better aligned with Mana than the Greens. But that is speculation. She would make an outstanding MP nonetheless.   
7. Moana Jackson. Moana is almost the anti-Hone. Moana is dangerously composed, softly spoken yet authorative and he enjoys a massive amount of respect among Maori.
8. Keisha Castle-Hughes. Apparently Keisha is something of a Greenie these days. She already enjoys a positive connection with New Zealanders and she knows more than a thing or two about politics – especially environmental issues.
9. Matua Parkinson. This one has come out of left field, but I think Matua has a lot to offer. He is something of a politico these days and, as a former sportsman, he enjoys an existing and non-political connection with many voters.
10. Efeso Collins. This fulla was suggested by Pollywog. I think it is important to have a Pasifika presence in Te Mana. Efeso is the perfect candidate as well – educated, an experienced broadcaster and a man not afraid to ask the hard questions.
11. Annabelle Lee-Harris. Annabelle is Native Affairs lead reporter and the daughter of former Cabinet Minister Sandra Lee. No doubt she knows politics. I guess the question is would she consider standing?
12. Rawiri Taonui. I am pretty sure Rawiri is a Mana Party supporter. He is accessible, enjoys a national profile and is politically savvy. The perfect profile really.
13. Robyn Malcolm. Admittedly Robyn is more of a Green Party girl, but she is a strong unionist I assume. She is too late to stand for the Green Party list, why not stand for the Mana list?
14. Reuben Wiki. Slim chance, would be cool though.
15. John Minto. I’m not sure about this one. I respect John for sure. But I don’t know…

Some of you may notice that I’ve left out Sue Bradford, Matt McCarten and Nandor Tanczos. As much as I respect all three, I do not think Mana needs recycled.

What are your thoughts... ?? 

Here today, gone tomorrow

Clouds are gathering as the Maori Party continues to bleed support. The latest Horizon Poll puts Te Mana marginally ahead of the Maori Party and now Marty Mars has announced he will be joining the Mana Party:

I have sent my membership into the Mana Party, and like John Minto I have never joined a political party before, but the time for sitting on the fence is over - now is the time to seize the opportunity and create history. 

Marty was one of the only Maori Party supporters in the blogosphere. By my reckoning there are no pro-Maori Party bloggers left. On the other hand Te Mana enjoys the support of my blog, or more accurately my sympathy – I do not support any particular political party at the moment, Mars 2 Earth, some authors at The Standard and Tumeke. The same is true in the mainstream media. Rawiri Taonui, who is perhaps the most prominent Maori political commentator, expressed roundabout support for Te Mana. Willie Jackson, who regularly offers commentary on Maori politics, has also expressed support for Te Mana.

What should be of most concern to the Maori Party is that they have lost their activists as well as their academics. Essentially, there is no structural depth to the Maori Party. Some of the party’s most experienced and talented activists have switched allegiances. Think Annette Sykes, Potaua from TW.com, Tim Selwyn and so on. Maintaining a core of experienced activists would have guaranteed the party’s short term survival at least. But now they must rely on the National Party and a small faction of loyalists to, among other things, run campaigns, draft advice and organise party events. Ultimately the Maori Party does not have the numbers on the ground. The party’s academics have also dropped away, for example Moana Jackson and Margaret Mutu. The Maori Party must now rely on their parliamentary staff to perform extra-parliamentary work, such as policy formulation. Lastly, Electorate branches in Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki are in tatters. The party never created a youth branch, they have no presence on university campuses (where a wealth of talent can be tapped) and membership is declining as former supporters chose not to renew their membership. The prognosis is grim.

I mentioned at the beginning of this post that the latest Horizon poll puts the Mana Party slightly ahead of the Maori Party. Whether this becomes part of a trend remains to be seen. Now Bryce Edwards makes the point that the Mana Party can be at 2.3% and not affect the Maori Party at all. This is an excellent point and demonstrates that the Mana Party is pitching to a supplementary base. Yes, Te Mana is aiming for the tino rangatiratanga vote alongside the Maori Party, but Te Mana is also aiming for the far left vote and the non-vote (meaning the vote of people who usually do not vote). The Mana Party does not have to savage the Maori Party vote in order to reach the 3.5% target.

To conclude, things are looking down for the Maori Party. With the budget coming this Thursday things probably won’t be looking any better. The Maori Party copped a fair amount of criticism for their support of budget 2010, mainly due to the unfair tax switch, and it is difficult to see why things would be much different under what will without doubt be an austere budget 2011.

Maori MP's page - updated

I've finally updated the Maori MP's page for April. Unsurprisingly Hone comes out on top. He is closely followed by newcomer Annette Sykes and Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples. Hekia Parata and Pem Bird occupy the bottom positions. For the full list and accompanying rationale pop over to the page.

The Mana Party

The Mana Party is here. I know I promised to blog on the Mana Party sooner, but a few things got in the way. However, I’ve found a bit of time to coalesce my thoughts. Given that I felt obligated to blog on the Mana Party this is a rushed job so apologies in advance for the length, any mistakes and the lack of links. 

In this post I want to discuss the Mana Party’s policy positions, whether the party will target the party vote or the Maori electorates and whether or not such a strange collection of ideologically dissimilar activists will hold. I will then move on to whether I think the party will meet success (in terms of the party vote and the Maori seats) what it all means for Maori voters. I will not cover the byelection.

POLICY

In terms of policy, we know very little beyond a few broad positions. The Mana Party will, at this stage, introduce a capital gains tax, institute a financial transactions tax (dubbed the Hone Heke tax) and remove GST. The Mana Party will also nationalise monopolies and duopolies, evaluate Kiwisaver and move to strengthen unions.

The above positions represent the Mana Party’s core policy platform – at this stage at least. In my opinion the above is striking for a lack of clearly identifiable Maori policy. There is no mention of the Treaty, no policy directly targeted at Maori - there is little mention of Maori at all actually. This seems odd given that the Mana Party is, well supposedly at least, a “Maori led” and “Maori focussed” Party. However, with that aside I think it is still fair to describe the Mana Party’s positions as hard left.

To be honest, I am surprised that the Mana Party is focussing on class politics. The movement that underpins the Mana Party is firmly rooted in identity politics, however the party’s policy does not seem to reflect this. Identity politics dominated the last decade, however Hone, no doubt at the behest of Matt McCarten, is pushing policy firmly set along class lines. Unions, progressive taxes and so on all speak to the working class. The above policy is firmly aligned with the working poor and beneficiaries.

Many commentators believe the Mana Party has not departed from ethnic based politics. Although I agree somewhat, if one were to consider Mana Party policy only then it becomes clear that this is not the case. The party appears, at this stage, to be focussing on working class concerns, such the 90 day right to sack law. I have not heard nor seen any policy with regard to tino rangatiratanga. The Mana Party’s policy positions seem to reject Maori concerns in favour of a socialist agenda. 

So where does the Mana Party fit on the political spectrum? To the far left in my opinion. There is space on the political spectrum for a far left party. The Maori Party sits on both sides, the Greens appear to be shifting rightwards while the Labour Party occupies the centre or the soft left. I largely agree with Joshua at Maori Law and Politics who points out that the Mana Party more closely “resembles the Alliance… than it does the Maori Party”. 

In terms of parliamentary discourse advocating a capital gains tax is a progressive suggestion. In terms of mainstream political discourse advocating a financial transactions tax is almost radical. Removing GST is, again, a progressive suggestion. GST is a regressive tax and others have called for the tax to be decreased or removed.  On the other hand nationalising monopolies and duopolies is an innovative suggestion in terms of contemporary parliamentary discourse. However, where I say innovative others may say “extreme” or “radical”.

Personally, I do not quite know what to make of the Mana Party’s policy. I am inclined to say Hone has had something of an epiphany and warmed to working class liberalism. However, I tend to doubt this. It is fair to say Hone has always been an advocate for the poor, but he is a Maori nationalist before he is a working class hero. He believes in Maori customary rights and customary ownership. He believes Maori did not surrender sovereignty in 1840. I therefore find it odd that he has, apparently, ditched all of this in favour of, for lack of a better expression, the aspirations of the radical Pakeha left. This is not to say the policy the Mana Party is advocating will not benefit Maori, I overwhelmingly think it will, I just find it odd that Hone’s priorities have shifted. I would speculate that it signals that Hone is not in complete control of the party and/or the likes of Sue Bradford and Matt McCarten have influenced Hone’s perspective. I tend to think both hold true. Hone surely has the last say, but Matt controls the details in my opinion.

Therefore, policy wise, the Mana Party is about as left as they come. The party mixes the progressive with the radical.  There is a clear focus on workers and the poor.

THE PARTY VOTE OR THE MAORI SEATS?

The Mana Party will almost certainly target the party vote. I tend to think Hone and Matt want to stand candidates in the Maori electorates, but they will not pre-empt the Maori Party who have indicated that they will stand a candidate against Harawira in the upcoming byelection or the election proper. Matt McCarten is no fool, and neither is Hone for that matter, both know that there is little chance attracting existing voters. The Labour vote currently represents the party’s core, the Greens maintain a fairly loyal following and most Green voters, in my opinion anyway, represent 21^st century liberalism rather than the old school leftism the Mana Party appears to be emulating and there are not many votes to suck from Alliance. The only market where the Mana Party will enjoy success is among tino rangatiratanga voters, also known as Maori Party voters. Ultimately, Hone’s appeal is confined to a small group of far lefties, tino rangatiratanga advocates and the politically apathetic, meaning the poor, marginalised etc… 

The Mana Party will have to target the young and the politically apathetic/inactive. With little room to tap existing voters the Mana Party will have to look towards the new and the indifferent.

However, the party could always turn to electorates seats. I cannot think of a general electorate where the Mana Party will have any chance. The Maori electorates are a different story though. The Maori Party appears set to tear up their agreement with Hone and stand a candidate in Te Tai Tokerau. The Mana Party could then, theoretically, stand in every seat and win. That’s a potential six seats.

Of course the Mana Party will probably focus on both the party vote and the Maori seats. Cover both bases. No harm in doing so really. Of course there is a financial barrier and the party’s target audience do not have deep pockets. Realistically, the party will have to focus on either the party or vote or the Maori seats or, alternatively, run a limited campaign in the Maori seats or the party vote. I tend to think the Mana Party will run a limited campaign in the Maori seats. Maybe contest Te Tai Tokerau, Waiariki, Hauraki-Waikato and Ikaroa-Rawhiti only. It is clear that the Mana Party seeks to be more than just a kaupapa Maori party, therefore a wider mandate than just the Maori seats is required for the party to act with any mana.

The advantage Hone Harawira enjoys is that he speaks to a constituency that other parliamentary parties cannot touch. The underclass, non voters and the absolutely marginalised. There is a deep well of dissatisfaction among these groups and Hone, I believe, has the ability to tap that well. The advantage Hone holds is that he knows how to communicate with these groups, to some extent he is one of them as well. He is clever but not intellectual, aggressive but not violent, ordinary but not average, kind but not soft. He maintains many virtues that will resonate with the poor, but more importantly he knows how to articulate their concerns.  

It is clear that the Mana Party is seeking a wider base than just Maori. The party’s policy is overwhelmingly targeted at the working poor, however the makeup of the party does not reflect the target audience.

THE PEOPLE

The Mana Party consists, by my reckoning at least, of two sorts of activists. Tino rangatiratanga activists and far left advocates. The tino rangatiratanga activists outnumber the far left advocates. Both sets of activists will be fighting for primacy. The tino rangatiratanga cluster will seek to elevate Maori concerns above left concerns and vice versa. At the moment the left branch appears to be conceding i.e. taking a backseat in public. However, the policy positions of the Mana Party tell a different story. Policy seems to reflect left concerns. On the other hand the public faces of the party are advocating Maori concerns.

There appears to be a divide between the substantive aspect of the party and the propaganda aspect of the party. The substantive aspect, read policy, appears to be directed from the left wing section of the party. While on the other hand the propaganda aspect of the party appears to be directed by the tino rangatiratanga section. For example the imagery associated with the party is Maori. The Mana logo is the typical red and black, two colours with prominent meaning for Maori and the font is, in terms of character, consistent with Maori design. The party website also incorporates red and black while Maori is the default language.

There are a number of theoretical advantages to having a combination of lefties and Maori nationalists. Firstly, the lefties and the Maori nationalist group will, in theory, act as a two way moderating force. Having said that I must say this is unlikely in my opinion. It is hard enough putting two Maori in a room and asking them to agree on something let alone a Maori and a Pakeha with competeing priorities. Secondly, the Mana Party embodies, sort of, diversity of opinion and this will hopefully lead to a more robust policy discussion and a broader policy agenda. Thirdly, Matt McCarten, Sue Bradford and so on are the sort of people who will challenge Hone. I have always imagined Hone as the sort of person who does whatever the last person told him to. However, McCarten and co will act as a competent sounding board and will challenge Hone on some of his more extreme and unpalatable positions.

Common sense would dictate that such an uncompromising combination of interests is doomed to fail. Prima facie, I agree. But then again it just seems like an easy call to make and one that does not take into account the complexity of human interaction and determination of all involved to make this movement successful.

Ultimately, the danger comes when the inevitable ideological clash happens. It then becomes a question of whether or not those involved have the strength of character to compromise. I would say yes. I now think Hone appreciates that there is often a gap between rhetoric/desire and the political reality. If he compromises the Maori nationalists will follow. Matt McCarten is essentially a political pragmatist and if he compromises I believe the left group will follow. These two men are the pinnacle of the party – the two ideological leaders. 

WILL IT BE SUCCESSFUL?

Certainly – in the short term. Not so clear in the long term. Maori Party support is declining at a rate of knots. That decline will not flow towards Labour until they repent for the foreshore and seabed betrayal nor will it flow towards the Greens who continue to fail in articulating their message to Maori. The Mana Party is the default option and, arguably, the only other option (discounting right wing parties for obvious reasons).

If the Maori Party decides to stand against Hone either at the byelection or the election proper then the Maori seats become fair game for Hone. In my opinion the Mana Party will pick up Waiariki (assuming Annette Sykes stands) and retain Te Tai Tokerau.

The ultimate measure of success though will be how many inactive voters Mana can secure. If the Mana Party can mobilise the politically apathetic then the party would have succeeded in creating a permanent electoral force and securing their place as a serious political player. This is easier said than done of course. Matt McCarten’s Mana campaign illustrated that it is nearly impossible to mobilise inactive voters. However, we must keep in mind the fact that Mana was a byelection, the economic and social circumstances were less dire and Matt has probably learnt a number of valuable lessons that can be applied across the country. Ultimately, as I said, if anyone can speak to and mobilise the marginalised it is Hone Harawira. The man has a genuine rapport with the pohara and he knows exactly what they will respond to. The challenge then is not what messages do we run, but how do get the messages into their living rooms, their homes etc. The question will be how do we penetrate their lives?

The Mana Party is not representing a narrow set of interests either. Where the Maori Party is exclusively concerned with Maori issues and Maori policy, the Mana Party is concerned with a wider set of interests, for example working class concerns. This in turn means the Mana Party can draw upon a wider base. How much success the party will have in terms of securing a wider base is not yet known. For me it depends on whether or not Pakeha can overcome the barrier that a perceived ‘Maori party’ represents. There is for many Pakeha a psychological barrier to voting for a Maori party and there is also a more practical barrier – Hone Harawira. It will be hard for Pakeha, even the far left ones, to vote for a man who has displayed a fair amount of hostility towards their people.

We must consider another question when guessing at the possible success the Mana Party will enjoy. Will the such a group of disparate and competing interests hold? Will the lefties and the tino rangatiratanga group enjoy a stable relationship or will the party become factionalised? If internal disputes emerge then history shows the party is almost guaranteed to fail. My money is on the party holding - until they get within range of government. That is when the ideological disputes, the practical disputes and so on will come to the fore.

We cannot lose sight of the media either. The slurs have already begun. The media is attempting to portray the byelection as a ploy on Harawiras part to make a bit more cash and the imagery the media associates with Hone is always negative and sometimes scary. However, this matters for nothing. Hone’s voters don’t give a shit. Most probably don’t even watch the news let alone care what Jessica Mutch has to say about Hone Harawira.

Ultimately, the barometer will be how many inactive voters does the Mana Party secure. This will determine how successful the party is.   

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MAORI?

Where do I start?

Firstly, Maori now have more choice. Maori have a number of different choices all of which can be clearly distinguished. There is a kaupapa Maori party (the Maori Party), a centrists and tested party (the Labour Party) and an experimental and working class party (the Mana Party). The Greens and New Zealand First also factor in a less prominent position.

The Mana Party also pits Maori against Maori. The debate will without doubt divide many iwi, hapu and even whanau. Maori, as a collective, hate to see infighting. But then again tribal politics is often plagued with infighting, so I guess for some it is nothing new.

Hopefully, the Mana Party will lead to debate about where Maori sit in the political landscape. Maori political discourse is terribly thin and I welcome anything that stimulates discussion. Maori need to ask what is the nature of Maori political participation? Can we be placed adequately on the political spectrum? How do Maori want to engage in the political process, for example are we content with been passive bystanders or do we want to inject ourselves into the political class. What sort of policy platform best advances Maori aspirations and so on.

This brings me to an interesting point. It is clear that the Maori Party wishes to inject our own into the political class and the capitalist class. The Maori Party believes this is the best way forward – working within the system essentially. The Maori Party prescription is to take on the ruling class on their terms. While on the other hand the Mana Party remedy is to deconstruct the neoliberal framework that has given rise to the political elites and the capitalist class. The Mana Party and the Maori Party both believe in integrating our indigenous systems and values into a western framework. The difference is the two parties believe in a different western framework. The Maori Party is comfortable with neoliberalism while the Mana Party would institute a move towards a more socialist regime. Maori must choose very carefully.

Personally, I applaud the Maori Party on having a model to get Maori ahead. However, I do not like that model because often it comes at the expense of others. For example asset sales. Asset sales will undoubtedly benefit iwi, however that will come at the expense of other New Zealanders. Mainly the have nots. Our aspirations should not come at the expense of others – no matter how much we deserve to get ahead.    

FINAL THOUGHTS

There is a worrying divide forming among Maori. It is a divide between the haves and the have nots. This divide is embodied by the Maori Party and the Mana Party. It is a divide between iwi that have their settlements, their land trusts and their middle class and between iwi and urban Maori that do not. It is easier for those who do have to say Maori need to get out of, and I hate these terms, grievance mode and into development mode. I will use the example of my iwi, Ngati Awa, and urban Maori. We, as in Ngati Awa, have a growing middle class, a cultural and spiritual base that we retain, we have a number of successful hapu trusts and we have a Crown apology and a financial settlement. We can move because we have our closure, sort of, and we have capital to utilise to get ahead. Our connections to the whenua remain unbroken and our Ngati Awa tikanga and kawa remains. The same cannot be said about urban Maori. They have no settlement to invest in their futures, they have no connection to their traditional lands, their reo and tikanga is almost forgotten, their incomes are falling and the government is not correcting the wrong. How can these Maori be expected to get into development mode when they have nothing and the wounds of the past are still a substantial cause of anger and marginalisation. Urban Maori have no means of getting ahead as a people. The system and society still operates against them. They have no access to capital and their culture is lost. Now where I am going with this is that the Maori Party is siding with the haves while the Mana Party is siding with the have nots. 

This has probably always existed, however it is becoming more pronounced. Inequality between Maori is increasing and this cannot be tolerated. The Maori Party is increasing inequality, whereas the Mana Party will seek to rectify inequality among Maori – or at least that is how I see it.

I have not mentioned this yet and this section seems like a logical place. The Mana Party, contrary to what some commentators believe, is not trying to be a pan-Maori party. The Maori Party’s attempt at been such a party has failed in my opinion. That is why the Maori Party is currently representing a narrow set of interests i.e. the Maori capitalist class while the Mana Party is seeking to represent poor New Zealanders. Pan-Maori parties aren’t working at the moment.  

CONCLUSION

I am not so quick to write off the Mana Party. The party will have little trouble attracting members and grassroots activists and supporters. Ultimately, the Mana Party will probably succeed because the Maori Party has failed. The Maori Party has, and I repeat this unequivocally, failed as a kaupapa Maori party. The Maori Party is captured by a corporate agenda; the Maori Party serves the interests of the few. The Maori Party has lost sight of its people. The Maori Party is now the party of the likes of Wira Gardiner and Tuku Morgan – a party of the right. A party of the privileged and the disconnected. All of the rhetoric, all of the hope, all of the expectation and obligation has come to nothing. Even worse, the Maori Party has failed its own definition of success. Maori are worse off and continue to fall. This why Mana will succeed. Because Maori want and Maori need a genuine representative. People can throw around comments like “Hone is out of control’ and “Hone is a racist”. I think sentiment along these lines completely misrepresents and misreads Hone as he is today. Hone Harawira has grown up and he has surrounded himself with some of the sharpest political minds in New Zealand. He isn’t the arrogant idiot who flunked a meeting for some sightseeing in Paris anymore. He isn’t the idiot who fired off a disgusting email to an infamous kupapa anymore. Hone Harawira appreciates the weight of expectation he now carries and, ultimately, he understands what the daily slog is like for many Maori. This is what drives Hone. Hone knows he cannot afford to shit the bed and stuff it up for Maori. He has a job and he is going to get on with it. The media, the right, the racists and the Maori Party will not get in the way.  

The Mana Party... Coming soon

Hone Harawira appears set to announce the formation of a new party at the end of the month. The Mana Party should be announced following a final hui on April 30. Readers will know I have been predicting and advocating a broad left wing party as opposed to an alternative Maori party. However, it appears Hone will deliver the latter.

As you can probably imagine, I think this is a strategic mistake. I will qualify that statement by saying good on Hone. Maori want a new kaupapa Maori party and he is delivering one. In this post I want to quote, at length, my thoughts on the issue from March 12:

Hone has announced that any new party he forms will be Maori focussed. I do not think this necessarily precludes the possibility that the party will be broadly left wing. Certainly tino rangatiratanga finds a natural ally in the left - the recognition of indigenous rights is almost the exclusive domain of the left in fact. Hone appreciates this. In this post I want to discuss why Hone Harawira must launch a broad left wing party rather than a single issue alternative Maori party.

If Hone were to form an alternative Maori party he must, in the interest of electoral success, destroy the current Maori Party. The numbers required to sustain both a left wing Maori party and a right wing Maori party do not exist. The Party vote for the current Maori Party is already exceedingly low and it is fair to assume that there is little potential to tap new and existing, yet inactive, voters. The Green Maori vote is also exceedingly low. The Labour Maori vote remains significant yet there are dangers in attempting to bite a piece off of the Labour Party. For the moment, Hone needs the Labour Party in terms of support in the House and around Parliament. Any new party Hone forms will also be ideologically tied to Labour. Now if Hone were to pursue the Labour Maori vote Labour could respond in kind and attempt to stymie Hone. Erect barriers in an attempt to protect their voter base. For example Labour, if threatened, could silence Hone in the House by refusing to offer him anymore speaking slots. Cut off his oxygen supply essentially. Hones best options is to target the politically inactive. The constituency exists and I firmly believe Hone, in cohort with Matt McCarten, is, or are, the people to finally reach out to that untapped market often called the underclass.  

Most people can list three or four political values and issues that mean a lot to them. The reality is that most people will not list flags on bridges, international treaties and customary rights near the top. The cost of living, wages and welfare will come out near the top of most lists, therefore it is crucial that Hone take a broader view. The current Maori Party continues to collect a considerable amount of criticism for the party’s perceived focus on symbolic wins as opposed to substantive wins. This should signal to Hone that a focus on Maori values such as the recognition of some rights is not enough to placate Maori. At the end of the day Maori, like everyone else, want to enjoy a higher standard of living, job security etc. And of course the underclass, I loathe the connotations of that word but it is the common designation we all understand, is not exclusively Maori. The underclass consists of the working poor, Pakeha beneficiaries and in many cases Pakeha pensioners. With this in mind it becomes clear that the pitch must be much wider. Although any new party Hone launches will not rely on the party vote, for the time being that is, if Hone wants to drag any new MP’s in with him he must ensure his messages, policies etc resonate with a wide audience.  

The political marketplace is already crammed and, as one commentator put it, an alternative Maori party will occupy a niche within a niche.

Most of this, in my mind at least, still holds true. I want to add a few more comments though.

Firstly, the Maori vote is volatile in one respect and solidified in another respect. What I mean by this is that on a candidate level the Maori vote tends to jump around while on a party level the vote is largely fixed with Labour. In terms of the party vote I think this comes down to habit – it’s a generational thing. Hone will struggle to change that. The Maori Party failed to convert a majority of Maori. Mana Motuhake also failed and so did the Greens.  

Secondly, Hone needs a moderating force. In my opinion he does whatever the last person told him to do. People like Annette Sykes will hardly exercise control over Hone’s more extreme tendencies. They will only reinforce what he believes.

I wish Hone success. I agree with much of what he says and does. But not enough people share my outlook on life. Not enough to make him a significant force.

The Maori Party investigates a death sentence

Pem Bird, the Maori Party President, has announced that the party is investigating whether or not Hone Harawira has breached the non-aggression pact. Admittedly Hone has not held back when dealing with the Maori Party. However, Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia have, at times, responded in kind.

Apparently the party will appoint an official to investigate the matter. What a waste of time and resources. All the ‘official’ will be doing is examining semantics and then issuing a predetermined conclusion. The party should be expending energy on parliamentary business, electorate business and the upcoming campaign. You do not need an ‘official’ to determine whether or not Hone has said nasty things. The answer to that is self evident.

If it is found that Hone has breached the agreement Te Tai Tokerau becomes fair game. While for Hone the other Maori electorates become fair game. This would play right into Hone’s hands. No one will come within arms reach of Hone in the north. However, if Hone were to stand candidates in the other Maori electorates he would either win them or push them into Labour’s hands.

On current polling a Harawira candidate in Tamaki Makaurau would do enough to push the seat towards Shane Jones. Take Willie Jackson for instance. Jackson would play to soft and hard left voters, as well as women, the same pool of voters Pita Shraples plays to. Whereas Shane plays to the centre and to the right. The centre right, in terms of Maori, is overshadowed by the left. However, with the left vote split Shane will charge up the middle and secure the seat.

In Hauraki-Waikato a Harawira candidate would, again, cannibalise the Maori Party vote. Angeline Greensill is, by my reckoning, a fairly staunch tino rangatiratanga advocate. Any Harawira candidate will, in all likelihood, share a similar outlook. Again, the Maori Party candidate and the Harawira candidate would be playing to the same base. Therefore, the vote opens up and the Labour candidate runs up the middle and, in the case of Hauraki-Waikato, with an increased majority.

Waiariki is perhaps the most interesting. It would be a three way battle between Te Ururoa Flavell, Annette Sykes and Louis Te Kani. As I have said, I tend to think Annette would secure the seat in this scenario. Annette’s rhetoric is hard and uncompromising and she works within a different ideological framework. Louis Te Kani is very much focussed on economic gowth for Maori and getting out of the so called grievance mode. It is hard to say where Te Ururoa stands anymore, but I think it is most accurate to say he stands in the centre right camp. Whereas Annette Sykes is hard left and an aggressive tino rangatiratanga advocate. Te Kani and Flavell are fighting for the centre right vote and Annette will monopolise the left vote and the tino rangatiratanga vote (of which there is no shortage). The seat would fall her way.

Ikaroa-Rawhiti would go Labour’s way. Parekura Horomia enjoys a strong personal, as opposed to ideological, following. This is not the sort of following that can be easily broken. Neither the Maori Party candidate nor a Harawira candidate can break that following without a gigantic slip up on Parekura’s part. Parekura is the epitome of a grassroots campaigner. He attends every rugby and netball match, every significant birthday, every Marae event, you name and he’s there. This sort of personal connection with the voters is not easily broken with talk of policy, aspirations and political speak.

In my opinion the same is true of Tariana Turia in Te Tai Hauauru. She benefits from an enormous amount of respect among the people. Notwithstanding events of recent times, she has worked hard as an electorate MP and her stance over the Foreshore and Seabed Act 2004 was commendable. In the end her personal following will be enough to see her through. I am unsure how strong the Labour candidate Soraya Peke-Mason is. I do not know if Harawira has anyone willing to stand in Te Hauauru either.

Te Tai Tonga is the most marginal Maori seat and would go Labour’s way. Southern Maori are not, as far as I know, that keen of the harsh tino rangatiratanga that Hone and some of his supporters espouse. I have always considered southern Maori more conservative than Maori in the north. Not in a traditional left right sense, rather when it comes to Maori nationalist matters. Given this it seems plausible that Hone would struggle to find a candidate willing to stand. I cannot think of any likely contenders from the top of my head. Even in the event of a three way race I think Rino Tirikatene is poised to lock in the seat. Merely as a reflex against Rahui Katene’s support for the MCA act, the GST rise, the ETS and so on.

If my theories were to play out the Maori Party would be left with one seat (Te Tai Hauauru), Hone Harawira would gain two (Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki) and Labour would snatch three (Hauraki-Waikato, Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Te Tai Tonga). This would be a death sentence for the Maori Party and a lifeline for Hone Harawira and his new party (assuming he forms a new party). I do not want to see the Maori Party destroyed, but that is the price paid for thinking you are bigger than your constituents. The Maori Party has lost touch. It is also the way of minor parties tainted by government. If the Maori Party is to go the way of history, the question is who fills the vacuum? Hone Harawira or Labour…

Annette Sykes vs. Te Ururoa Flavell

I am glad that Annette Sykes is still considering running against Te Ururoa in Waiariki.  From Waatea News:

Former Maori Party adviser Annette Sykes says her local MP Te Ururoa Flavell has betrayed Te Arawa people with his support of the Marine and Coastal Area (Takutai Moana) Act.

The Rotorua lawyer says Mr Flavell was sent to parliament by the Waiariki electorate to roll back the confiscation and discrimination of Labour's Foreshore and Seabed Act.

But she says the work he did on the new Act failed on that count.

“None of those compromises justify in any way the confiscation of the lands of the people of Te Arawa from Matata to Maketu and for me it’s a betrayal of the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi is established but also the foundations on which the Maori party established,” Ms Sykes says.

She is considering standing against Mr Flavell in Waiariki if former Maori Party MP Hone Harawira creates a new Maori political party.

As a Kawerau boy, I like to think I have a deep understanding of the Waiariki electorate. The seat is winnable, but winning will require a huge effort. At the last election Te Ururoa enjoyed near unanimous support with 68% of the vote. This is an almost 10% increase on his 2005 result. However, the circumstances this time around are vastly different. The political landscape is about to change with the formation of Hone’s new party and the relationship between Maori and the Maori Party is strained.

Say what you will about the Maori Party, but bear in mind that they are not amateurs. The party maintains campaign infrastructure in all of the Maori electorates, for example a ready pool of volunteers, key Marae/Runanga contacts, mailing lists, enrolment statistics, street by street voter analysis etc… Te Ururoa is also, in my opinion at least, a commendable electorate MP. Although he has performed disgracefully with regard to the MCA act – he remains committed to Waiariki.

The challenge for Annette is to bring together an experienced and knowledgeable team and replicate the campaign infrastructure the Maori Party has in place. The next step would be to define the message e.g. A vote for te Ururoa is a vote for National and then focus on soft areas where support for the Maori Party is thin and where tribal links to Te Ururoa do not exist. I am thinking of Kawerau, Tuhoe (Ruatoki, Taneatua), Opotiki, Te Whanau a Apanui (Te Kaha, Omaio), Whakatane and Taupo.

Kawerau is a strong Labour town, in 2005 Steve Chadwick just managed to retain Rotorua thanks to Kawerau voters. Among Maori voters the same is true i.e. support for Labour is strong. I am not sure how the candidate vote went, however I think it is safe to assume that Annette, like me a former Kawerau resident, will have no trouble in winning support. As a staunch tino rangatiratanga advocate she will cruise to victory in the Tuhoe rohe as well. People from Whakatohea (roughly the Opotiki area) and Te Whanau a Apanui (from about Torere to the East Cape) are also furious with the Maori Party. The party has refused to back the people over mining off the East Coast. Te Whanau a Apanui has had to rely on the Greens for political support and groups like Greenpeace for protest/public relations support. A vote against the Maori Party will be almost a reflex action up the coast. I am unsure what way Whakatane and Taupo will swing. But I will say, and this is speculation on my part, that these two centres are marginal. Rotorua will almost certainly back Te Ururoa based on his good record as an electorate MP there. Tauranga is probably anyones game. However, I think neither Annette nor Te Ururoa will win there. At this point I am putting my money on Louis Te Kani, the Labour candidate. Louis is a well respected local barrister and a genuine nice guy. By the looks of it he is held in high regard in the local Labour region as well. Given the MCA act betrayal I am not sure any coastal iwi, like the iwi of Tauranga Moana, will vote for the Maori Party or any Maori Party candidate. While on the other hand the harsh rhetoric of Annette Sykes may turn off many of the working class Maori voters in Tauranga.

It is conceivable that a three way race will benefit the Labour candidate. I do not think this is the case though. As Te Ururoa has drifted right he has vacated the left. Annette needs to focus her efforts towards left leaning voters and tino rangatiratanga voters. Te Ururoa and Loius Te Kani will be left to fight over the limited number of right wing voters in the electorate.

The Maori Party is under pressure following the MCA act and the continuing decline in Maori living standards. Many Maori are looking for a new political vehicle. One would think that Maori would, almost naturally, return to Labour. However, Labour still lacks credibility on Maori issues following the foreshore and seabed raupatu. Labour has yet to repent and Maori will not return until they do. This means the time is ripe for a third way. A new political vehicle. Annette Sykes and Hone Harawira could be that third way. They must keep in mind though that Labour will not remain idle forever and time will soon ensure that the sins of the Maori Party are forgotten. Timing is crucial. Annette and Hone must make a decision soon or risk losing the window of opportunity. Labour will soon reclaim the left and crowd out any competitor. Annette and Hone must act while both parties are in disarray.

So Waiariki is there for the taking. So long as Annette musters a professional team and executes a professional campaign. The Maori electorates are huge, therefore reach is essential. Annette cannot rely on the 6 o’clock news or Maori TV. She must get into every corner of the electorate and push her message hard. This is a terrible generalisation, but most Maori are not informed voters. Voting is often an intuitive exercise. Annette must give them no reason not to vote for her.

For the sake of Maori, the Maori Party must be stopped. The Maori Party is the key to a second term National Government – so the weaker the Maori Party, the less likely we will have a second term National Government. Your people need you, Annette.