Shane Jones: selling out the kaupapa edition

Willie Jackson ripped into Nanaia Mahuta, Moana Mackey and Louisa Wall on Marae Investigates. Willie argued that they're guilty of "selling out" the kaupapa. The kaupapa being supporting a Maori leader of the Labour Party. He was unkind, but he might be right.

There seems to be little point in having a Maori caucus if it isn't going to support a Maori leadership candidate. (Honourable exception: Rino Tirikatene). Surely that's the guiding kaupapa. But does solidarity demand that they support Shane? Thoughts.

Waatea with Willie Jackson

I'll be on Waatea Radio today with Willie Jackson sometime after 11 and no later than 11.30pm. We'll be talking about the Maori Party I think.

On a slightly unrelated note, this will be my last post until January. When I'm back I'll whack out my promised election post mortem and I'll update the best and worst performing Maori politicians page.

Thanks for all your support this year. I really do appreciate it. Thanks especially to everyone that's commented and emailed me. You keep me on my toes and, at times, bring me back down to earth. Thank you.

Morgan

Willie Jackson stands down

This is unfortunate news:

Labour's Tamaki Makaurau candidate Shane Jones says the absence of broadcaster Willie Jackson from the line-up shouldn't affect November's outcome.

 

After months of flying kites, the former Alliance MP yesterday announced he would not stand on the Mana Party ticket because it's likely his presence in the race would guarantee a Labour victory.

 

Mr Jones says it was always going to be a two horse race between Maori Party leader Pita Sharples and himself, and he's not surprised Mr Jackson is out. 

I’ve always thought Willie could snatch the seat. I think Willie knew he stood a real chance, but he would rather carry on with his sweet gigs at Radio Live, Radio Waatea, Maori TV and the Manukau Urban Maori Authority. Why re-enter the fray when your life after politics is, perhaps, more rewarding than your life in politics. Staying out of the race also gives Willie more time for his family.

The focus now turns to Shane Jones. Can he, in light of Pita and the Maori Party’s poor performance, unseat a Minister and snatch an unlikely victory for Labour.

Willie Jackson for Tamaki Makarau

I admire Tim Selwyn’s analysis of Maori politics, but I feel he misses the mark today:

Willy Jackson has been a stronger advocate for a compromise between Maori and Mana parties than he has been an advocate and activist for the Mana Movement.

This is true. However, one has to understand that any overt activism on Willie’s part will compromise his chances of securing subsequent seasons of his show political show, Newsbites, as well as his daily program on Radio Live. Secondly, but more importantly, any political activism Willie undertakes will hurt the chances of the Manukau Urban Maori Authority, of which he is the CEO, from securing social services contracts. Seriously - don’t underestimate the vindictiveness of the Tory’s and their Maori Party mates. Thirdly, you can not begrudge Willie for advocating for the sensible option. In terms of increasing Maori political power, the best approach was a joint effort in the Maori seats. Mana would target the party vote while the Maori Party would target the electorate vote. It made more sense for Willie, who is in a position of authority and influence, to push for that option before committing exclusively to Mana.   

His vacillation over standing against Pita Sharples and Shane Jones in the Tamaki Makaurau Electorate will not serve him well I would have thought. Partly it may have been out of political courtesy to give these impressions, but it is difficult to tell if Willy has the fire in the belly to win Tamaki Makaurau.

I largely agree with this statement. It is very late in the piece and that isn’t helpful. Conventional wisdom would, perhaps, dictate that in order to win an electorate a year long effort is required. Then again, Willie isn’t any old candidate.

I don't know Stephanie Harawira (who has put her name forward for the nomination) so I don't know what her chances of selection are if a big name like Willy should stand.

My understanding is that the other interested candidates have agreed to step aside should Willie decide to stand. However, were Harawira to remain in the race I doubt she will win the nomination.

My feeling is that Willy is just not going to be a hard enough candidate against Pita or Shane to take the seat because he has too much personal respect for both men and this will dull the edge. Even with a huge swing from Maori Party to Mana it is a big ask. It will be interesting what the radical elements in the proliferation of Mana branches in Auckland have to say.

Willie’s views are far-left, the thing is that he is an expert when it comes to massaging the message and presenting a mainstream face. He can do radical when the situation demands. What we see of Willie in public nowadays is, for want of a better term, mainstream and acceptable to many New Zealanders. This is because the situation demands a non-threatening face. Can you imagine Radio Live hiring a Maori radical? Or TVNZ agreeing to run Eye to Eye? Willie can do radical and he will if he runs.

If Willie decides to stand his campaign manager will be John Tamihere. At the last election Pita largely relied on Willie, John and their networks. This was the case in 2005 as well. Now that both men and their networks have moved on I struggle to see how Pita will manage to run a worthy campaign. He has next to no experienced people behind him and he is, in my opinion, a politician lacking nous and any sort of pulling power. He may charm the kuia at Hoani Waititi, but he doesn’t do so well with rangatahi and male voters.

Shane’s team will not pose a challenge for Willie’s experienced and soldier-heavy team. Willie is an institution among Auckland Maori. He is, as Hone Harawira once told me, the quintessential urban Maori. Willie is also, and I am only speculating here, held in higher esteem among the union movement.

Before a Mana candidate can stand they must commission a poll and that poll must show that they have a realistic chance. If Willie decides to stand that means his private polling shows he is in with a real chance. The only public poll we can rely on, and only slightly, is the Horizon Poll from earlier this year. The poll showed a massive swing from Pita Sharples to Shane Jones. I commented at the time that it was a reflex backlash against the Maori Party’s support for the Nat’s, but more particularly the MCA Act. The voters swung behind Shane because he was the default option, not because Tamaki Makaurau had all of a sudden come back to Labour (in fact Auckland is, at the moment at least, a National stronghold). Were Willie a factor at the time I would pick that the swing would naturally move to him. Willie shares more in common, both policy wise and personality wise, with Pita. Shane is somewhat converse to both Pita and Willie.

Should Willie stand Tamaki Makaurau will be one of the most interesting contests. I am not going to call it for anyone at the moment because it is too close, for now at least. Once things become clearer I will produce a comprehensive analysis and call the result – maybe even endorse a candidate.

Shane Jones to retire?

Shane Jones is, apparently, weighing up his future in politics:

Labour MP Shane Jones has indicated he is weighing up his future in politics if he does not get strong endorsement from Maori voters in November's general election.

Mr Jones said on Te Kaea on Maori Television he wanted to win the Tamaki Makaurau seat - currently held by Maori Party leader Pita Sharples - and if he did not he would "reconsider my options".

When Parekura Horomia bows out of politics Shane will, in my opinion, assume the role of leader of the Maori Caucus. However, should both Parekura and Shane exit then the Maori Caucus will be left in a weak position. Remembering that other members of the old guard are either retiring (Mita Ririnui) or choosing to take a backseat (Nanaia Mahuta). This leaves only Kelvin Davis and, assuming they make it in, Deborah Mahuta-Coyle and Rino Tirikatene. Moana Mackey could also be considered, but I tend to think her loyalties do not lie with the Maori Caucus.

However, should Shane win he will almost certainly be reinstated to the front bench and would be in a position to build a compelling case to be ranked in the top five – maybe deputy leader. Shane would complement David Cunliffe or David Parker, however, and Shane has admitted this, he must work harder to gain the respect of caucus. The Maori Caucus, as a bloc, do not have the power to propel Shane to the top nor do they, in my opinion, maintain the alliances with other blocs needed to do so. Shane needs to put himself in a position where the Labour Party need him. Winning Tamaki Makaurau, and in the process displacing one of the co-leaders of the Maori Party, would be Shane’s first step towards cementing himself as a political force and breaking his reliance on the Labour Party. As a list MP Shane is beholden to the party. With a seat Shane is beholden to his constituents.

For what it’s worth I think Shane is more likely to win than not. He is by no means a shoe-in, but is in with a strong chance regardless of how well he runs his campaign. There will be a reflex swing against the Maori Party in every electorate and in light of the Horizon Poll taken earlier in the year it appears that the reflex swing is most pronounced in Tamaki Makaurau. Of course Willie Jackson, should he decide to stand, will be a complicating factor and in my opinion (and also Rawiri Taonui’s) he will have a strong chance of snatching the seat too. Interesting times ahead.    

The Maori Party investigates a death sentence

Pem Bird, the Maori Party President, has announced that the party is investigating whether or not Hone Harawira has breached the non-aggression pact. Admittedly Hone has not held back when dealing with the Maori Party. However, Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia have, at times, responded in kind.

Apparently the party will appoint an official to investigate the matter. What a waste of time and resources. All the ‘official’ will be doing is examining semantics and then issuing a predetermined conclusion. The party should be expending energy on parliamentary business, electorate business and the upcoming campaign. You do not need an ‘official’ to determine whether or not Hone has said nasty things. The answer to that is self evident.

If it is found that Hone has breached the agreement Te Tai Tokerau becomes fair game. While for Hone the other Maori electorates become fair game. This would play right into Hone’s hands. No one will come within arms reach of Hone in the north. However, if Hone were to stand candidates in the other Maori electorates he would either win them or push them into Labour’s hands.

On current polling a Harawira candidate in Tamaki Makaurau would do enough to push the seat towards Shane Jones. Take Willie Jackson for instance. Jackson would play to soft and hard left voters, as well as women, the same pool of voters Pita Shraples plays to. Whereas Shane plays to the centre and to the right. The centre right, in terms of Maori, is overshadowed by the left. However, with the left vote split Shane will charge up the middle and secure the seat.

In Hauraki-Waikato a Harawira candidate would, again, cannibalise the Maori Party vote. Angeline Greensill is, by my reckoning, a fairly staunch tino rangatiratanga advocate. Any Harawira candidate will, in all likelihood, share a similar outlook. Again, the Maori Party candidate and the Harawira candidate would be playing to the same base. Therefore, the vote opens up and the Labour candidate runs up the middle and, in the case of Hauraki-Waikato, with an increased majority.

Waiariki is perhaps the most interesting. It would be a three way battle between Te Ururoa Flavell, Annette Sykes and Louis Te Kani. As I have said, I tend to think Annette would secure the seat in this scenario. Annette’s rhetoric is hard and uncompromising and she works within a different ideological framework. Louis Te Kani is very much focussed on economic gowth for Maori and getting out of the so called grievance mode. It is hard to say where Te Ururoa stands anymore, but I think it is most accurate to say he stands in the centre right camp. Whereas Annette Sykes is hard left and an aggressive tino rangatiratanga advocate. Te Kani and Flavell are fighting for the centre right vote and Annette will monopolise the left vote and the tino rangatiratanga vote (of which there is no shortage). The seat would fall her way.

Ikaroa-Rawhiti would go Labour’s way. Parekura Horomia enjoys a strong personal, as opposed to ideological, following. This is not the sort of following that can be easily broken. Neither the Maori Party candidate nor a Harawira candidate can break that following without a gigantic slip up on Parekura’s part. Parekura is the epitome of a grassroots campaigner. He attends every rugby and netball match, every significant birthday, every Marae event, you name and he’s there. This sort of personal connection with the voters is not easily broken with talk of policy, aspirations and political speak.

In my opinion the same is true of Tariana Turia in Te Tai Hauauru. She benefits from an enormous amount of respect among the people. Notwithstanding events of recent times, she has worked hard as an electorate MP and her stance over the Foreshore and Seabed Act 2004 was commendable. In the end her personal following will be enough to see her through. I am unsure how strong the Labour candidate Soraya Peke-Mason is. I do not know if Harawira has anyone willing to stand in Te Hauauru either.

Te Tai Tonga is the most marginal Maori seat and would go Labour’s way. Southern Maori are not, as far as I know, that keen of the harsh tino rangatiratanga that Hone and some of his supporters espouse. I have always considered southern Maori more conservative than Maori in the north. Not in a traditional left right sense, rather when it comes to Maori nationalist matters. Given this it seems plausible that Hone would struggle to find a candidate willing to stand. I cannot think of any likely contenders from the top of my head. Even in the event of a three way race I think Rino Tirikatene is poised to lock in the seat. Merely as a reflex against Rahui Katene’s support for the MCA act, the GST rise, the ETS and so on.

If my theories were to play out the Maori Party would be left with one seat (Te Tai Hauauru), Hone Harawira would gain two (Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki) and Labour would snatch three (Hauraki-Waikato, Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Te Tai Tonga). This would be a death sentence for the Maori Party and a lifeline for Hone Harawira and his new party (assuming he forms a new party). I do not want to see the Maori Party destroyed, but that is the price paid for thinking you are bigger than your constituents. The Maori Party has lost touch. It is also the way of minor parties tainted by government. If the Maori Party is to go the way of history, the question is who fills the vacuum? Hone Harawira or Labour…

Brief thoughts on a few issues

I know I claimed to be taking a break in the run up to exams, but there are a few interesting issues that need to be covered. In this post I’ll cover a few (briefly):

1. The Electoral Commission has announced that Louisa Wall will replace Darren Hughes in Parliament. This will come as no surprise to anyone. Louisa was the Labour Party hierarchy’s preferred choice and they made no secret of it. Parachuting Louisa into Parliament makes practical sense, however, as I said on Native Affairs, I do not think that is in the spirit of MMP. The biggest practical advantage is that membership of the House will serve as a form of incumbency and provide a good base for her campaign in Manurewa. Louisa will make an excellent MP in my opinion, but she is no Darren Hughes. She will be the seventh Maori MP in the Labour Party caucus and the twenty first Maori MP in the current Parliament.
2. Whaimutu Dewes is calling for an overhaul of Maori land law. I am not qualified to pass comment on the merits/drawbacks of this suggestion, however I think it makes sense. Dewes makes the point that the one size fits all approach is inadequate, as it tends to be in most circumstances.  
3. Rumour has it Willie Jackson is seriously considering standing in Tamaki Makaurau. This topic deserves an entire post but I do not have the time so I’ll skim over it. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Willie would merely split the vote and clear the way for Shane Jones to take the seat. However, I disagree. Shane’s recent success in the polls is not an indication of a personal following or approval with the Labour Party. The voters of Tamaki Makaurau are clearly disillusioned with Pita Sharples and Shane Jones is the only other option. He receives Pita’s former supporters by default. Shane actually has done nothing. And nothing has worked only because he is the only other candidate. I am of the opinion were Willie to stand he would receive most of Pita’s votes. Willie is, in terms of character and politics, more aligned with Pita than Shane. The difference is Willie lacks the recent political baggage that Pita carries. It must be kept in mind that Shane still lacks credibility among women and, to a lesser extent, the general public. The margin of error was 11% too. That is a considerable range. Ultimately, without knowing Willie personally it really is hard to predict whether he will stand.
4. Parekura Horomia has acknowledged Te Whanau a Apanui, but has not come out in support of their stance or in opposition to oil prospecting generally. This is disappointing yet expected. A step in the right direction to be fair. Parekura is right to highlight the strength of Te Whanau a Apanui resolve, but timid in refusing to offer forthright political support. Te Whanau a Apanui cannot confront and permanently deter Petrobras, one of the largest oil companies in the world, without significant political and public support. Protest and confrontation is a short term barrier and cannot continue forever nor escalate into direct and possibly illegal confrontation. If Te Whanau a Apanui can attract further political and public support it will have a cumulative effect and they could just beat Petrobras. It will be a long, long, long shot though (I hope to blog further on this issue some time after my tests).

        

On Hone Harawira's new party

From Stuff.co.nz:

The chances of a broad-based Left-wing party rising from the ashes of Hone Harawira's meltdown with the Maori Party have been dashed after he made it clear that any group he led would have to be Maori-focused.

So Hone has announced that any new party he forms will be Maori focussed. I do not think this necessarily precludes the possibility that the party will be broadly left wing. Certainly tino rangatiratanga finds a natural ally in the left - the recognition of indigenous rights is almost the exclusive domain of the left in fact. Hone appreciates this. In this post I want to discuss why Hone Harawira must launch a broad left wing party rather than a single issue alternative Maori party.

If Hone were to form an alternative Maori party he must, in the interest of electoral success, destroy the current Maori Party. The numbers required to sustain both a left wing Maori party and a right wing Maori party do not exist. The Party vote for the current Maori Party is already exceedingly low and it is fair to assume that there is little potential to tap new and existing, yet inactive, voters. The Green Maori vote is also exceedingly low. The Labour Maori vote remains significant yet there are dangers in attempting to bite a piece off of the Labour Party. For the moment, Hone needs the Labour Party in terms of support in the House and around Parliament. Any new party Hone forms will also be ideologically tied to Labour. Now if Hone were to pursue the Labour Maori vote Labour could respond in kind and attempt to stymie Hone. Erect barriers in an attempt to protect their voter base. For example Labour, if threatened, could silence Hone in the House by refusing to offer him anymore speaking slots. Cut off his oxygen supply essentially. Hones best options is to target the politically inactive. The constituency exists and I firmly believe Hone, in cohort with Matt McCarten, is, or are, the people to finally reach out to that untapped market often called the underclass.  

Most people can list three or four political values and issues that mean a lot to them. The reality is that most people will not list flags on bridges, international treaties and customary rights near the top. The cost of living, wages and welfare will come out near the top of most lists, therefore it is crucial that Hone take a broader view. The current Maori Party continues to collect a considerable amount of criticism for the party’s perceived focus on symbolic wins as opposed to substantive wins. This should signal to Hone that a focus on Maori values such as the recognition of some rights is not enough to placate Maori. At the end of the day Maori, like everyone else, want to enjoy a higher standard of living, job security etc. And of course the underclass, I loathe the connotations of that word but it is the common designation we all understand, is not exclusively Maori. The underclass consists of the working poor, Pakeha beneficiaries and in many cases Pakeha pensioners. With this in mind it becomes clear that the pitch must be much wider. Although any new party Hone launches will not rely on the party vote, for the time being that is, if Hone wants to drag any new MP’s in with him he must ensure his messages, policies etc resonate with a wide audience.  

Hone is not stupid and I think he knows that there is no room for an alternative Maori party, the political marketplace is already crammed and, as one commentator put it, an alternative Maori party will occupy a niche within a niche. All of this talk of a Maori focussed party is, in my opinion, a distraction. It is a call to action to Hone’s tino rangatiratanga supporters. These people will provide the rank and file foundations of a new party. Hone has already floated the names of his advisors - Matt McCarten, Willie Jackson, Sandra Lee etc – the administrative and logistical support already exists in the form of the Unite Union and former Maori Party staffers as well. Therefore, all that is needed now is the 500 person membership quota. For that reason Hone is touring the country talking about this Maori focussed party because he needs to attract the already politically active i.e. current and former Maori Party supporters. No use targeting the politically inactive just yet.

What is also interesting is Sue Bradfords attempts to not so much distance herself from the new party but rather talk down her enthusiasm. Hone and Sue are close personal friends and I have no doubt that the two have been working closely over the past few months so naturally I cannot quite figure out why she is attempting to down play the whole thing.

The most widely cited danger in forming a new left party is the effect it will have on the Green Party. In my opinion these concerns are largely unfounded. The Greens target the urban middle class vote whereas any party Hone forms will target, as I have said, the underclass. The two parties will play to completely different voter bases. Admittedly a new left party could attract the social activists among the Greens. These people are few and far between though and the environmental aspect of the Greens is a strong pull in their favour. A vote for the Greens is a vote for 21^st century eco-capitalism, a vote for Hone’s new party is a vote for social democracy. The two are not similar and the overlap will be minimal.

Hopefully I can attend one of Hone’s hui, although I think he has already held his Wellington hui? It will be interesting to hear what he has to say and then solidify or reform my thoughts. In any event I hope he will opt for a broad left wing party. The Maori Party serves its purpose and the left is in dire need of a real left party. But most of all the underclass needs a voice. Our democracy and our society will be stronger for it.   

On Hone Harawira forming a new party

Some left wing commentators, namely Martyn Bradbury, are pushing the idea that Hone Harawira should, whether he is expelled or not, form a new left wing party. I see a number of problems with this idea.

Every party has a recognised identity. The question is will Hone, as a Maori nationalist, fit within the identity of a far left party comprised of rejected social democrats? Will he fit within a party that’s stands for certain political values above and beyond tino rangatiratanga? With this in mind it is conceivable that stern tensions will exist, and at some point erupt, over the policy priorities and direction of the party. Willie Jackson makes the point that Maori interests “might not always fall within a left wing paradigm”. The left is not always automatically analogous with Maori interests. Essentially, I do not think Hone is flexible enough in his ideology to accept working within the framework of a far left party nor sufficiently interested in responding to the needs of the constituents of the far left.   

It is probably also worth considering the personalities involved. Matt McCarten and Hone Harawira are the two strongest personalities in politics, no doubt about that. Although Matt is incredibly principled he is a pragmatist first. He knows the importance of electoral success. On the other hand Hone is principled first and pragmatic second. What happens when Matt’s pragmatism clashes with Hone’s principles? A party meltdown in my opinion. Hone will no longer compromise his principles for short term electoral or governmental success whereas Matt knows the importance of winning at any cost. Matt is a realist and values power. Hone is an idealist who values tino rangatiratanga. Such a clash of values will hardly breed stability.

Marty Mars and Willie Jackson have floated the idea of Hone forming an alternative Maori Party. An alternative Maori party will have to convince Maori that they, unlike the original Maori Party, will not sacrifice Maori interests for short term gain in government (i.e. they will not swallow National’s poison), therefore they are ultimately better representatives of Maori interests.

The problem with an alternative Maori party is that it will have no resources. Let’s be honest, Hone’s supporters hardly have deep pockets. It is also unknown how many rank and file members would jump waka. Enough to constitute a registered party (I think 500 members are required)? Without competent and experienced managers the formation of a new party is a logistical nightmare. Under a new left party the ground work can be left to Matt McCarten but under a new Maori party who would Hone delegate too? Furthermore, where will advisors and administrators come from and who would be willing to stand for such a party?

I think I would prefer to see Hone Harawira stand as an independent for now. It is too late in the piece to go pulling political parties out of your arse. As an independent Hone could create a strong narrative. Portraying himself as a man of integrity, alienated for speaking truth to power, denouncing, as Gordon Campbell put it, the brown sell outs in Cabinet. Against this the MP have no effective counter narrative. However, if Hone were to form a new left party or new Maori party the current Maori Party could taint him as a prostitute to politicians of yesteryear or a trouble maker with only conflict on his mind.

So there are problems with Hone hitching it with a new left party or pitching into a new Maori party. Either way Hone does not have many favourable options on the table. Perhaps his best choice is to stand as an independent. To be honest I wouldn’t know. This is all speculation. I'm just hoping for resolution and hopefully that resolution will not involve expulsion.