Brief thoughts on a few issues

I know I claimed to be taking a break in the run up to exams, but there are a few interesting issues that need to be covered. In this post I’ll cover a few (briefly):

1. The Electoral Commission has announced that Louisa Wall will replace Darren Hughes in Parliament. This will come as no surprise to anyone. Louisa was the Labour Party hierarchy’s preferred choice and they made no secret of it. Parachuting Louisa into Parliament makes practical sense, however, as I said on Native Affairs, I do not think that is in the spirit of MMP. The biggest practical advantage is that membership of the House will serve as a form of incumbency and provide a good base for her campaign in Manurewa. Louisa will make an excellent MP in my opinion, but she is no Darren Hughes. She will be the seventh Maori MP in the Labour Party caucus and the twenty first Maori MP in the current Parliament.
2. Whaimutu Dewes is calling for an overhaul of Maori land law. I am not qualified to pass comment on the merits/drawbacks of this suggestion, however I think it makes sense. Dewes makes the point that the one size fits all approach is inadequate, as it tends to be in most circumstances.  
3. Rumour has it Willie Jackson is seriously considering standing in Tamaki Makaurau. This topic deserves an entire post but I do not have the time so I’ll skim over it. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Willie would merely split the vote and clear the way for Shane Jones to take the seat. However, I disagree. Shane’s recent success in the polls is not an indication of a personal following or approval with the Labour Party. The voters of Tamaki Makaurau are clearly disillusioned with Pita Sharples and Shane Jones is the only other option. He receives Pita’s former supporters by default. Shane actually has done nothing. And nothing has worked only because he is the only other candidate. I am of the opinion were Willie to stand he would receive most of Pita’s votes. Willie is, in terms of character and politics, more aligned with Pita than Shane. The difference is Willie lacks the recent political baggage that Pita carries. It must be kept in mind that Shane still lacks credibility among women and, to a lesser extent, the general public. The margin of error was 11% too. That is a considerable range. Ultimately, without knowing Willie personally it really is hard to predict whether he will stand.
4. Parekura Horomia has acknowledged Te Whanau a Apanui, but has not come out in support of their stance or in opposition to oil prospecting generally. This is disappointing yet expected. A step in the right direction to be fair. Parekura is right to highlight the strength of Te Whanau a Apanui resolve, but timid in refusing to offer forthright political support. Te Whanau a Apanui cannot confront and permanently deter Petrobras, one of the largest oil companies in the world, without significant political and public support. Protest and confrontation is a short term barrier and cannot continue forever nor escalate into direct and possibly illegal confrontation. If Te Whanau a Apanui can attract further political and public support it will have a cumulative effect and they could just beat Petrobras. It will be a long, long, long shot though (I hope to blog further on this issue some time after my tests).

        

Goff needs to step up

An interesting piece from Waatea News:

Labour's Maori affairs spokesman Parekura Horomia has indicated Phil Goff's blanket refusal to contemplate Hone Harawira as part of a future coalition government isn't supported by all his colleagues.

Mr Goff says while he made the decision himself, it was unanimously backed by the Labour caucus.

Goff should be worried that Horomia, a senior figure within the party, has decided to essentially break ranks.  This signals that there is a significant amount of dissatisfaction among caucus, especially the Maori caucus, in terms of the decisions Goff is making. A capable leader can in most instances contain dissatisfaction, however Goff is struggling to keep caucus onside. Ultimately, it is a failure of political management on Goff’s part. On current calculations Goff will need the Greens, New Zealand First and Hone Harawira to have any hope of forming the next government. However Goff cannot expect to manage a coalition of competing and disparate interests when he cannot even control his own caucus. MMP requires deft political management skills – Goff is yet to display such skills.

Goff has had a hard time over the past two and a bit years. I know I would hate to be him right know. Having said that the flak he has received is in many cases justified. He is always making the wrong call, stepping in the wrong direction and slaving away behind public opinion. Goff is applying the smile and wave principle. The problem is smiling and waving is the province of John Key. New Zealanders don’t want two John Keys. They want a genuine choice - an old fashioned contest of ideas if you will. Sadly, Goff is far to timid to offer that. Goff is opting to play it safe. Recycle the standard PR lines, apply the standard theories, play by the book essentially. The standard approach to propaganda is insufficient. One would think that Goff and his idiot advisors would have realised this by now. In any case I hope they wake up before the election. Don’t just gift the election to John Key.    

Hint, hint

From Hone Harawira;

I can announce that it is my intention to continue to serve the Tai Tokerau as an independent MP, and that I will contest the 2011 elections as either an independent or as a member of a new political movement in Aotearoa.

Interestingly, Hone indicates that he is open to joining or forming a new party. It is hard to know what to make of this. On the one hand you could speculate that Hone is sending a subtle message to the apparently numerous young activists who are calling for a new left party. However, on the other hand you could say Hone is just playing a sensible game. As a general rule you never rule anything out in politics. I tend to think Hone is declaring his availability as an anchor for a new left party. Not necessarily declaring his intention to actively form such a party, I think he intends that work to fall upon the young activists who are keen for a new left party.

What is also interesting about the above statement is that Hone rules out the possibility of seeking refuge with the Greens. Up until recently Hone has advocated for a strategic alliance between his former party and the Greens. However, Hone must realise he will not fit within the Greens’ new found eco-capitalist framework. Ultimately, Hone’s identity as a tino rangatiratanga advocate clashes with the Green’s identity as a middle class environmental party.

The statement continues;

It is also my intention to go back to my electorate and to supporters around the country over the next month to inform them of my intentions and to seek their support

It sounds as if Hone has already decided whether he will remain independent or form a new party. It appears that it is just a matter of seeking the endorsement of his supporters. Martyn Bradbury must be getting pretty excited.   

In terms of the election itself, I have advised the leadership of the party that it is not my intention to contest any of the other Maori seats in 2011, and I understand that the Maori Party has agreed not to stand a candidate against me in 2011 either.

So Hone is ruling out forming an alternative Maori Party, however, not a new left wing party. Remember a new left party would use Te Tai Tokerau as their MMP anchor, therefore contesting other electorates is merely a waste of resources.

To conclude, Hone has indicated, quite expressly, he may contest the election as a member of a “new political movement”, i.e. a new left party. This will give hope to the likes of Martyn Bradbury. However, one must exercise cautious optimism. As Chris Trotter points out here and here, forming a new party is far, far easier said than done.