Shane Jones to retire?

Shane Jones is, apparently, weighing up his future in politics:

Labour MP Shane Jones has indicated he is weighing up his future in politics if he does not get strong endorsement from Maori voters in November's general election.

Mr Jones said on Te Kaea on Maori Television he wanted to win the Tamaki Makaurau seat - currently held by Maori Party leader Pita Sharples - and if he did not he would "reconsider my options".

When Parekura Horomia bows out of politics Shane will, in my opinion, assume the role of leader of the Maori Caucus. However, should both Parekura and Shane exit then the Maori Caucus will be left in a weak position. Remembering that other members of the old guard are either retiring (Mita Ririnui) or choosing to take a backseat (Nanaia Mahuta). This leaves only Kelvin Davis and, assuming they make it in, Deborah Mahuta-Coyle and Rino Tirikatene. Moana Mackey could also be considered, but I tend to think her loyalties do not lie with the Maori Caucus.

However, should Shane win he will almost certainly be reinstated to the front bench and would be in a position to build a compelling case to be ranked in the top five – maybe deputy leader. Shane would complement David Cunliffe or David Parker, however, and Shane has admitted this, he must work harder to gain the respect of caucus. The Maori Caucus, as a bloc, do not have the power to propel Shane to the top nor do they, in my opinion, maintain the alliances with other blocs needed to do so. Shane needs to put himself in a position where the Labour Party need him. Winning Tamaki Makaurau, and in the process displacing one of the co-leaders of the Maori Party, would be Shane’s first step towards cementing himself as a political force and breaking his reliance on the Labour Party. As a list MP Shane is beholden to the party. With a seat Shane is beholden to his constituents.

For what it’s worth I think Shane is more likely to win than not. He is by no means a shoe-in, but is in with a strong chance regardless of how well he runs his campaign. There will be a reflex swing against the Maori Party in every electorate and in light of the Horizon Poll taken earlier in the year it appears that the reflex swing is most pronounced in Tamaki Makaurau. Of course Willie Jackson, should he decide to stand, will be a complicating factor and in my opinion (and also Rawiri Taonui’s) he will have a strong chance of snatching the seat too. Interesting times ahead.    

Here today, gone tomorrow

Clouds are gathering as the Maori Party continues to bleed support. The latest Horizon Poll puts Te Mana marginally ahead of the Maori Party and now Marty Mars has announced he will be joining the Mana Party:

I have sent my membership into the Mana Party, and like John Minto I have never joined a political party before, but the time for sitting on the fence is over - now is the time to seize the opportunity and create history. 

Marty was one of the only Maori Party supporters in the blogosphere. By my reckoning there are no pro-Maori Party bloggers left. On the other hand Te Mana enjoys the support of my blog, or more accurately my sympathy – I do not support any particular political party at the moment, Mars 2 Earth, some authors at The Standard and Tumeke. The same is true in the mainstream media. Rawiri Taonui, who is perhaps the most prominent Maori political commentator, expressed roundabout support for Te Mana. Willie Jackson, who regularly offers commentary on Maori politics, has also expressed support for Te Mana.

What should be of most concern to the Maori Party is that they have lost their activists as well as their academics. Essentially, there is no structural depth to the Maori Party. Some of the party’s most experienced and talented activists have switched allegiances. Think Annette Sykes, Potaua from TW.com, Tim Selwyn and so on. Maintaining a core of experienced activists would have guaranteed the party’s short term survival at least. But now they must rely on the National Party and a small faction of loyalists to, among other things, run campaigns, draft advice and organise party events. Ultimately the Maori Party does not have the numbers on the ground. The party’s academics have also dropped away, for example Moana Jackson and Margaret Mutu. The Maori Party must now rely on their parliamentary staff to perform extra-parliamentary work, such as policy formulation. Lastly, Electorate branches in Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki are in tatters. The party never created a youth branch, they have no presence on university campuses (where a wealth of talent can be tapped) and membership is declining as former supporters chose not to renew their membership. The prognosis is grim.

I mentioned at the beginning of this post that the latest Horizon poll puts the Mana Party slightly ahead of the Maori Party. Whether this becomes part of a trend remains to be seen. Now Bryce Edwards makes the point that the Mana Party can be at 2.3% and not affect the Maori Party at all. This is an excellent point and demonstrates that the Mana Party is pitching to a supplementary base. Yes, Te Mana is aiming for the tino rangatiratanga vote alongside the Maori Party, but Te Mana is also aiming for the far left vote and the non-vote (meaning the vote of people who usually do not vote). The Mana Party does not have to savage the Maori Party vote in order to reach the 3.5% target.

To conclude, things are looking down for the Maori Party. With the budget coming this Thursday things probably won’t be looking any better. The Maori Party copped a fair amount of criticism for their support of budget 2010, mainly due to the unfair tax switch, and it is difficult to see why things would be much different under what will without doubt be an austere budget 2011.

Pita Sharples vs. Shane Jones

Interesting results from Horizon: 

A new poll reveals Maori Party co-leader leader Pita Sharples huge majority in the Tamaki Makaurau electorate is being seriously eroded.

Horizon Research says his majority of 7,540 appears to have slipped to about 1,140.

I do have concerns in terms of the methodology Horizon uses, having said that I think their results are an accurate indication, albeit a slightly inflated indication, of Maori feeling in Tamaki Makaurau.

The Maori Party will be very worried. There was always going to be a reflex backlash as a result of the Hone Harawira expulsion and the passage of the MCA act. What is perhaps unexpected though is the extent of the backlash.

Pita appears to have destroyed his personal brand. The Maori candidate vote is a personality vote first and foremost. Party association is, in most cases, a secondary concern. Pita has always maintained a strong personal following, his connection to the Maori Party was of little consequence. However, it appears the situation has changed and Pita is now the focus of blame for the perceived mistakes the Maori Party has made. As a co-leader, this is to be expected.

In my opinion, the decisive moment came at Waitangi. Waitangi weekend was, for want of a better term, the ‘peak’ in the Hone Harawira saga. The Maori Party were copping criticism from the left, right and Maori. Pita personally attacked Hone and the defining moment came when Pita actively sought a replacement for Hone while he was still a member of the parliamentary team and the Maori Party itself. This exposed Pita as a double dealer and, this may be a strong description, a backstabber.     

This was an almost fatal blow. Pita was once regarded as a statesman, a skilled negotiator and a good natured go between for Maori and Pakeha. Yet at Waitangi he cultivated an image of a ruthless politician, a man poisoned by government.

The process re the MCA act reinforced the image of Pita the politician, not Pita the rangatira. Thousands of Maori submissions were ignored at the select committee stage, a hikoi to Parliament was casually disregarded and there was no acknowledgement that the MCA act is contrary to Maori aspirations. If the Horizon poll is indeed accurate, then Pita - perhaps unjustifiably - appears to have fielded a significant amount of the blame.

So who wins out of this? The answer’s easy… Shane Jones. According to the poll Pita enjoys 47.8% support while Shane follows at 42.1% support. This puts Shane within striking distance. Shane needs to convert roughly 1200 voters. This is easier said than done, but probable nonetheless.

I cannot honestly say I know which way it will swing. Shane and Pita, in terms of character, are fairly oppositional. Shane is confrontational and verbose while Pita is calm and is not prone to rhetorical tangents. Shane is not scandal free and neither is Pita. Both were held in high-esteem and have suffered a fall. But perhaps the defining factor will be Pita’s connections across the electorate. He is, and will remain, a respected kaumatua – in spite of his political failures. He has been involved with urban Maori for decades, with the local tangata whenua for decades, as well as every other Maori organisation in Auckland that you can think of. Shane does not enjoy such extensive contacts. He enjoys Nga Puhi whakapapa, but will that be enough to pull him through? Probably not. If forced to pick a winner, I say Pita. I will qualify that though and say that it could really go either way. Nothing is certain and anything can happen between now and the election.

Shane needs to ensure his campaign infrastructure is in place. He needs to be able to pick and date and run hard from then. The narrative also needs to be formed now and consistently hammered. If Shane can cultivate the perception that Pita is compromised, then the election is his to win. If he fails to devastate Pita’s brand, he has no show.

I am torn a little here. I do not want to see the Maori Party prop up a second term National government. But I do not want to see them destroyed. I think the party deserves a chance to reform. Ultimately though, I think preventing a second term National government is more important than any feeling towards the Maori Party. Movements can be rebuilt, but it is much harder to rebuild lives.