What Brash means for the Maori Party

Rodney Hide has announced his resignation as leader of the Act Party and cleared the way for Don Brash to assume the leadership. Hide will remain as a minister.

I can’t help but feel a little bit sorry for Hide. He has been embarrassed, degraded, assaulted and ultimately destroyed in a very, very public spectacle. But we are dealing with Don Brash here – the most morally bankrupt man in New Zealand politics so it’s hardly surprising is it? Perhaps what is most interesting, for me at least, is who is behind all of this. The Hollow Men showed that Brash was a mere puppet who was easily manipulated and led by a few puppet masters. But who is the puppet master(s) now?

But anyway, that is a side issue. In this post I want to discuss what a Brash led Act Party means for the Maori Party.

Most commentators seem to agree that Brash will increase the Act Party’s declining political stocks. Some also believe Brash will deliver much needed stability. So what does a resurgent and stable Act Party mean for the Maori Party?... It means the Maori Party will become irrelevant.

At the moment the Maori Party is expendable – the party can be disregarded without affecting the ability of the National government to command the confidence of the House. However, the Maori Party is viewed as the National Party’s best shot at a long term coalition partner. The Maori Party has a secure grip on two seats (Te Tai Hauauru and Waiariki), a somewhat firm grip on one seat (Tamaki Makaurau), a marginal grip on one seat (Te Tai Tonga) and the ability to run hard in the other two Maori seats.  This means the party is almost guaranteed to return, at the very least, two MP’s. The party was, prior to the Hone Harawira saga, stable as well.

On the other hand Act was seen as incredibly unstable. The party was rocked by a number of personal controversies and policy blunders, for example the Supercity legislation. Act did not enjoy a secure grip on an electorate seat either and most commentators believed the party would not breach the 5% threshold. Combine this and the prospects of Act remaining in Parliament were slim.

It was prudent of the National Party to regard the Maori Party as the best medium to long term coalition partner. As far as coalition partners go, the National Party do not have many to choose from. The Prime Minister ruled out working with Winston Peters, United Future will probably not grow and Peter Dunne will not be around in two terms time and Act is, or at least was, knocking on deaths door. The chances of a new right party forming also looked incredibly slim. In practical terms this left only the Maori Party. Ideologically speaking the Maori Party had the ability to gel with the National Party and the Maori party’s leaders, Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples, are a conservative and pragmatist respectively. This fitted well with National’s inherent conservatism and John Key’s brand of pragmatism. The Maori Party is neither left nor right and can be used, depending on circumstance, to pass right wing or left wing legislation as well. It’s a perfect fit for a government trying to play the game both ways i.e. left and right.

However, the Act Party appears to have changed trajectory. Most analysts accept the party will rise again. Remember Brash was responsible for the National Party’s huge rise post 2002. His rhetoric surrounding social issues appealed to a huge number of New Zealanders and it is difficult to see why the same formula will not work today in the wake of the MCA act controversy. So with Act on the comeback trail the Maori Party suddenly becomes redundant.

Act is the National Party’s natural ally. In cohort with Act the Nats can continue to occupy the centre. The centre is where major parties aim to be and under a Maori Party/National Party arrangement the Nats would be busy attempting to occupy the right given the Maori Party’s more natural tendency to reside on the left. Ultimately, the Nat’s would be busy trying to cover vast ideological ground in the absence of a coalition partner firmly classed on the right. However, with Act the Nats do not have to worry so much about nursing to the right and the party can focus on retaining the centre. Act would also be more willing to pass some of the more populist legislation that could be defined as anti-Maori, for example welfare attacks.

So with Brash at the helm of Act we can reasonably assume the party will see an increase in support. This makes the Maori Party expendable in the long term.

Another effect that a Brash led Act party will have is that it will probably kill the National/Act/Maori arrangement. Brash is a notorious racist and probably the most hated man in the Maori world. It is also impossible to reconcile Brash’s public stance in regards to Maori with Maori Party policy and values. I would expect Maori Party supporters to firmly oppose Brash and his prescription for Maori. Brash is a libertarian. Individualism and the supremacy of the individual underpin libertarian philosophy. Whereas the Maori Party stands for, or at least claims to stand for, tino rangatiratanga. Tino rangatiratanga is built upon the notion of the collective. Collective responsibility, collective rights and so on. The two are wildly incompatible.

Essentially, Brash does not believe in the concept of race. It logically follows that he cannot work with a party predicated on the notion of race and rights by virtue of race. Also, in a personal capacity, how can Maori Party MP’s work with a man who has done more damage to the reputation and standing of their people than any other politician in the last two decades. Brash is an open and shameless racist.

Brash will push for positions that are anathema to Maori. It is just impossible that the Maori Party could sit by in coalition with a man delivering racist rubbish. Maori will not stand for another repeat of Orewa.

To sum up (I’ve kinda forgot where I was going with this) a resurgent and stable Act party means the Maori Party will become expendable in the long term. If Act is looking like a future prospect then there is no need for the Maori Party in the National Party’s calculations. Furthermore, the Maori Party will not work with Brash – a dishonourable and tarnished racist. The Party is just too dissimilar. For this country’s sake, I hope Brash does not come within one hundred kilometres of government. For once I agree with Winston Peters:

"A John Key-Don Brash coalition would asset strip the country, keep wages low and attack superannuation."

Kia ora.

Will Whanau Ora be Cut?

I think it is reasonable to assume that the government is currently reviewing the Whanau Ora budget. Having said that Key has signalled, albeit in an ambiguous manner, that there are no plans to cut back the scheme’s budget. From Waatea News:

Prime Minister John Key has warned his support parties that the money is not there to fund their pet projects.

He says while there are no plans to cut back the whanau ora scheme for delivering social services through Maori providers, an expected boost in spending isn't going to happen either.

“There are no proposals to trim back whanau ora. The question is just how much more money goes into the programme. I think as a starting off programme it is doing well. There is a great concept behind it and Tariana is working very hard on it,” Mr Key says.

So Whanau Ora will face neither an increase in funding nor a decrease. Fair enough. However, I cannot help but feel this is an empty assurance. Fiscal pressures are mounting and the government is responding with cuts, cuts and more cuts. One would have thought, given the nature of Whanau Ora, that it would be one of the first projects in line for cuts.

Whanau Ora is, as far as I am aware, untested – beyond one or two local pilots that is. The scheme does not enjoy wide spread political support. The public is generally suspicious, yet largely accepting of the fact that a new approach is necessary, and there is no external pressure for change. Lastly, but most importantly, Whanau Ora is the pet project of a dispensable coalition partner.

Given the above, it is fair to assume that the Nat’s will, or at least can, cut the Whanau Ora budget without consequence. So what is stopping them? The prospect of a second term.

At the moment the Maori Party is expendable. However, after the election the Maori Party will probably hold the casting vote (assuming Rodney falls). The Prime Minister realises that he needs to keep the Maori Party on side if he is to have any chance of forming a government post-election and savaging the Whanau Ora budget would decrease his chances of doing so. Interfering with your long term coalition partner’s showpiece policy is beyond dumb. The Nat’s are a lot of things, but not, politically speaking, dumb.  

What sparked this post is the apparent “rumour” that the Whanau Ora budget is up for the chop. From Waatea News:

rumours that funding for the new service delivery model could be cut by as much as $70 million are causing alarm.

Read this with caution. It has come from Malcolm Mulholland, an advisor to Hone Harawira. Keep in mind that it suits Hone to have such a destabilising rumour in the public domain. But also keep in mind that it is entirely plausible given the reasons I outlined in my third paragraph. 

I, personally, am in favour of Whanau Ora. The scheme is practical and necessary. It is universally accepted that New Zealand needs a new model, the question is whether or not Whanau Ora is the right model. It would be a tragedy if the government decided to cut funding – the scheme was under funded in the first place. Ultimately, everything is up for review. But is Whanau Ora really, for want of a better term, superfluous? I don’t think it is.  

It was your fault

It’s a bit rich for John Key to go round saying that it is up to Len Brown to sort out the Maori Statutory Board mess. After all, the board was imposed upon Len and the Auckland Council by central government i.e. John Key and his crony Rodney Hide. In my opinion responsibility to act is not incumbent upon Len Brown. It is negligent on John Key's part, but more so Rodney Hide's, to impose a fractured framework upon the people of Auckland and then absolve any obligation to remedy the situation. But I guess that’s what we’ve come to expect from this lazy government.

Sharples 1, Hide 0

Pita Sharples has clearly bested Rodney Hide over Maori involvement in the Supercity. It has now become apparent that the Maori Statutory Board will have significant financial resources and political power. Provided of course that the C&R bloc, with the aid of some left wing councillors, do not gut the Boards funding. 

In the infancy of the Supercity debate Rodney Hide made a blatant political attempt to limit Maori participation. In the interests of a few redneck votes Rodney led the charge against dedicated Maori seats, despite the fact that the intellectual argument was behind the concept of Maori seats as well as the Royal Commission. Demand among Maori for dedicated Maori seats was strong - Labour, The Greens and some political commentators also came out in support. As the pressure built Rodney offered John Key an ultimatum – ‘it’s me or the Maori seats, John’. The Prime Minister came down on the side of populism (no Maori seats!) and refused to tarnish his brand by getting heavily involved. The issue was left to Rodney and he stood by his position. It was an easy win for the right. Throw around sloppy and ultimately meaningless catch phrases like ‘race-based privilege’ and ‘one man, one vote’ and the rednecks come out of the woodwork and middle New Zealand swallows the soundbite without question.

As the debate receded Pita Sharples entered negotiations with Rodney Hide regarding some form of Maori representation on the Supercity. Rodney could not compromise his credibility and allow Maori seats. Rodney desired a Maori Advisory Board whereas Pita Sharples desired a Maori Statutory Board. The two are similar in name, do not let that deceive you. The key difference is a Maori Advisory Board would exercise delegated power and be completely subordinate to council. On the other hand a Maori Statutory Board is empowered by legislation and operates independent of council. A Maori Statutory Board derives its authority directly from statute and is not constrained by council. A Maori Advisory Board relies on delegated authority from the Council and is thus a subsidiary and constrained by the wishes of council.

I’m not sure that Rodney Hide is so stupid that he did not know the difference between the two. It is probably safe to assume Rodney knew the difference between the two but did not anticipate or understand how a Maori Statutory Board would work in practise. I think this is due to Pita Sharples playing a subtle game in negotiating with Rodney. I think Pita managed to push this pass Rodney because he was subtle in revealing his objectives. Remember Pita was a negotiator in his former life and by all accounts the most agreeable and good natured person in government. His judgement is questionable but his political nous is well tuned. So as I said at the beginning of this post – Pita has bested Rodney Hide. We now have Maori political participation in the Supercity, not in the form of dedicated seats but in the form of a powerful statutory board. Arguably Maori have more power under the current arrangements.

When this story broke I hoped it would prove to be a fatal hit to Rodney’s credibility. At this point it does not appear so. Why? Because the media are focussing on the Boards so called ‘exorbitant funding demands’ as opposed to the stupidity of the situation at large. Stupid, shallow fucks. It is sickening seeing that slimy little shit Cameron Brewer spouting his National Party lines and the msm repeating them ad nauseam. But I guess Maori bashing is a free hit for the msm and their ignorant readership, listeners and viewers.

At the end of the day this is Rodney Hides creation. He is answerable. But as we have come to expect he is attempting to deflect blame. In politics it is always someone else’s fault, but in government the buck always stops at the top. Rodney cannot hide from this for long (no pun intended, seriously).  

(N.B: Although, in principal, I disagree with the concept of an unelected Maori Statutory Board I cannot help but feel pleased and think that this is karma for Rodney)