I'm back

A week is a long time in politics, or so the cliché goes. With that in mind I won’t attempt to deal with all the goings on in Maori politics that I’ve missed over the past week or so. A few things cannot pass without comment though.

Firstly, I want to pay tribute to Sir Paul Reeves – the first Maori Governor-General, former Archbishop of New Zealand and more recently Chancellor of Auckland University of Technology. Sir Paul will be remembered primarily as the first Maori Governor-General. During his tenure Sir Paul expressed public disapproval with Rogernomics stating that “the spirit of the market steals life from the vulnerable but the spirit of God gives life to all”. Sir Paul’s appointment was met with some disdain as many New Zealanders felt that his previous political involvement tainted his occupation of the apolitical Office of the Governor-General. As a man of God, sympathetic Labour Party supporter and tino rangatiratanga advocate Sir Paul was seen as compromised. However, upon taking Office Sir Paul allayed these fears and performed his duties with passion and impartiality.

Sir Paul whakapapas to Te Atiawa in the Taranaki. His hapu is Puketapu. Although Sir Paul was raised Pakeha, or in a Pakeha world, this did not alter his sense of identity as a Maori nor did it ever stop him discovering and embracing his whakapapa. I think history will remember Sir Paul as a man of humanity. I will remember Sir Paul for his aroha for all people and all things. Sir Paul possessed an acute sense of the world. Moe mai ra e te rangatira.

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On a brighter note, the Maori Party have dropped Solomon Tipene and selected Waihoroi Shortland as the Maori Party candidate for Te Tai Tokerau. Selecting Waihoroi signals that the party is taking a strategic approach to politics. Waihoroi is not going to win, bar some catastrophe, but he will erode Hone’s vote. Whether Waihoroi erodes it enough to hand Kelvin a win is unlikely, but plausible to an optimistic mind. The tide is going out on the Maori Party and rising on the Mana Party, if the Maori Party want to stem the flow then they need to eliminate Mana. They know this, Mana knows this and it is obvious to anyone that takes a cursory interest in politics.

Where Solomon Tipene was inarticulate and hesitant, Waihoroi is eloquent and assured (in both Maori and English may I add). He retains some youthful vigour, but also comes across as a wise Kaumatua. On personal characteristics Waihoroi is hard to beat. However, what he possesses in charisma he lacks in campaign experience, campaign support and political nous. The Maori Party remains broken in TTT, the leadership is tied down with the business of government and the party’s brains have left the building. The Maori Party is a shadow of its former self. Waihoroi can’t campaign alone, but should the Maori Party continue their current trajectory he, for all intents and purposes, will be.

Labour will be the passive beneficiaries of the battle between Maori and Mana in most other electorates, but not in TTT. Hone will eat Waihoroi and Kelvin for breakfast and then, if I may be so crude, shit them out the next day. Mana is a flaxroots movement with mass ground support and support from a number of brilliant political minds who shall remain nameless. So long as Mana remains the “movement of the people” Hone will remain untouchable and the other Maori electorates will fall to Mana in time.

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A Ministerial Inquiry has been launched into the use of foreign fishing vessels in New Zealand waters. I will not pretend to fully understand the issues at stake – I have been incredibly slack when it comes to following this story – suffice to say I welcome the inquiry and so should Maori. The allegations of poor conditions (and I believe the term “slave labour” has been used) on vessels fishing under Maori quotas is worrying. I look forward to the day that Iwi have the capital to invest in their own ships and, consequently, employ New Zealanders onboard.

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Excellent news for my Iwi Ngati Awa: 

Ngāti Awa is looking towards September 17, 2011 with great anticipation as we prepare for what is certain to be among the most significant days in the modern history of the iwi.

After a wait of over 130 years, the treasured Mātaatua Wharenui will stand once again as a powerful symbol of the resilient strength, pride and unity of Ngāti Awa. The house will take centre stage on the new Te Mānuka Tūtahi Marae.

One of the carvings in the Wharenui is of my tipuna, Te Rangikawehea, naturally I am excited to see it. 

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I thought it would be interesting to post this photo of Rino Tirikatene’s campaign van. Give him a toot if you see him around or stop for a korero. 

Rino Tirikatene's campaign van

Initial thoughts on the byelection result

I wonder if Guyon Espiner, Duncan Garner, Barry Soper and all of the other mainstream pundits who called the byelection for Kelvin are willing to eat their words - or at least sink their teeth into a slice of humble pie. Once again the mainstream commentariat has proven that they misunderstand Māori politics and cannot be relied upon to read the situation in the Māori electorates. I mean not to brag, but I called the result correctly. For the past few months I have stated that Hone would win by 5% at worst and 10% at best (he won by 7%). Other Māori political commentators picked the right result as well including Rawiri Taonui, Willie Jackson, Veronica Tawhai, Ann Sullivan, Tim Selwyn and Marty Mars. In fact Rawiri Taonui called it fairly close when he stated on Marae that Hone would win by between five and ten percent. 

You cannot really blame the mainstream pundits for calling the incorrect result though. (before I continue I should probably mention that not all mainstream commentators backed Kelvin – Bryce Edwards and Martyn Bradbury been the most notable exceptions). Common wisdom held that the conditions favoured Kelvin Davis. For example Labour had the opportunity to concentrate their resources, mobilise a nationwide net of activists, piggyback off of general electorate branches and offices, utilise Parliamentary staff and resources and focus the party’s experience and energy on one cause. Kelvin would have also had priority access to the Labour party communications team and advisers, he had the support of an army of sitting MP’s and access to their supporters. Given that this was a byelection the voting conditions also favoured Kelvin. By this I mean Hone’s supporters are, in general, more apathetic, couple this with Labour’s ability to run a better GOTV campaign and it becomes clear that low turnout will favour Kelvin rather than the incumbent (Hone) which is usually the case. Finally, Kelvin was running in a byelection that, according to the polls, no one in the North wanted. With the above in mind you would be forgiven for thinking the byelecion was a gift Kelvin failed to grasp hold of? Well, I can assure you, Kelvin was up against it from the beginning. 

Hone Harawira enjoys a deep, deep well of support, maintains functioning branches across TTT, he was the incumbent, he benefits from networks he has spent years building, he is perhaps the most effective backbench MP, he enjoys access to and support from hundreds of volunteers including some of the most prominent and respected Māori figures like Moana Jackson, he is more experienced than Kelvin as a politician and as a performer, he had the more powerful narrative and he carried the hopes of progressive Māori across the country. Ultimately though, what it came down to, in my opinion at least, is the powerful line that a vote for Hone is a vote for Hone and Kelvin whereas a vote for Kelvin is a vote for Kelvin. Māori are strategic voters and this sort of reasoning would have featured prominently in the minds of the politically savvy, read those most likely to vote. Another deciding factor was the Mana party’s performance on the ground. Hone tapped hundreds of activists who door knocked across the entire electorate, ferried families to the polls, erected signs, billboards and manned stalls. The Mana Party effort was equivalent to, or perhaps surpassed, Labour’s effort on the ground. The last factor that would have played in the mind of voters was Hone dominance in debates, town hall meetings and question and answer sessions. Hone won, quite convincingly too, every televised debate. Although Kelvin performed well in terms of delivering his lines and Solomon Tipene held himself with dignity – Hone was always one step ahead and one foot above.

If we examine the numbers we find that Hone Harawira won this byelection because he managed to hold off Labour in Auckland. The Labour party correctly identified Auckland as marginal ground. However, the party machine and Kelvin Davis failed to win Auckland in sufficient numbers. Kelvin won West Auckland by a mere 30 votes and the rest of Auckland by 158. This was not good enough. Considering that Auckland, especially West Auckland, is something of a Labour heartland you would expect to see Kelvin gallop ahead. What it came down to was Mana’s ability to neutralise the Labour Party machine in West Auckland. Mana Waitakere was, to the best of my knowledge, the first Māori Party branch to defect and then establish as a Mana Party branch. There was a transfer of personnel and – as you would expect - a transfer of knowledge, infrastructure and experience. When you examine Hone’s numbers it becomes clear why he won. Hone won the far north by almost 600 votes and Whangarei by 222. If Kelvin wanted a chance at snatching the seat he needed to win Auckland in those sorts of numbers. 

Another reason Hone retained the seat was because the Māori Party vote did not collapse and transfer to Kelvin. In fact it held steady. Solomon Tipene came in with 9% of the vote. A drop on 1% from what I and others were predicting. If The Māori Party vote dropped below 5% Kelvin Davis would be celebrating today as the MP for Te Tai Tokerau. Credit must go to Solomon for holding Māori Party support.    

I guess the big question today is where to from here. I said last week of Native Affairs that TTT is not the indicative Māori seat, but it is the seat that will determine who goes into the election with momentum. At this point it will be the Mana Party and Labour that share the momentum going forward. The Māori Party has stalled, but Solomon Tipene did a good enough job to keep them from going backwards. Mana will now go into the election with the energy, belief, and prominence to take Waiariki and have a decent crack at the other Māori seats, bar Te Tai Tonga which now belongs to Labour. Labour goes forward with the ability to take Tāmaki Makaurau as well. 

A Hone Harawira win will also change the political landscape. The Māori Party has declined Hone’s olive branch and this has opened the door for Mana to run candidates in the Māori seats. This will weaken the Māori Party and consequently weaken the right wing bloc in the House. The Mana Party will also target the working poor and beneficiaries. Two groups that are, arguably, underrepresented. If the Mana party can attract a sufficient number of party votes we will see a stronger left wing bloc post-election. Rather than split and weaken the left vote I think the Mana Party will increase the strength of the left vote. Mana has no interest in cannibalising the Greens or sucking off of the same base as Labour – Mana is concerned with attracting the politically apathetic.

The last point I want to make is that polls attempting to gauge Māori electorates should be taken at face value only. The Baseline/Native Affairs poll confidently put the result at 41% Hone and 40% Kelvin. This was, as I expected, way off. Beyond the margin of error even.             

Full credit must go to Kelvin and Solomon. Solomon Tipene handled himself well, especially following his leaders derogatory comments, while Kelvin proved that he is a rising star in the Labour Party. Full credit must also go to the Labour Party activist base as well. Although Labour is performing poorly at a national level the party can always fall back on their die-hard supporters when the need occurs. Kelvin is worthy of a promotion. My suggestion is that he be elevated to education spokesperson. 

Lastly, the best man won – in my opinion at least. The big challenge for Hone is to surround himself with intelligent and experienced advisors as well as people with experience in building successful organisations. Hone needs to take himself in a new direction and he needs to build a party of talented, committed and energetic individuals. And not just a party for Māori, but a party for all New Zealanders.   

Turia has a mare (updated)

Last night on Native Affairs I was alerted to some extraordinary comments from Tariana Turia. At first I thought she had been misquoted, but it appears her words can bear no other meaning. From 3 News:

Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia has effectively thrown in the towel in the Te Tai Tokerau by-election with five days still to go.


She says her candidate Solomon Tipene is a lovely kind kaumatua but he does not understand politics and that has hurt him.


“I think he has shown he doesn't understand politics and that is fair I think and that's been a real issue for him,” she says. 

You can’t help but feel for old Tipene. He was chucked in the deep end without a hope in hell of doing well. He appeared to receive little to no practical and political support from his colleagues. Now his own leader is publicly slagging him. Outrageous: 

3 News asked Ms Turia who she thinks will win.

“I mean ideally, and I suppose if he's done the work on the ground, it should be Hone - it will be interesting to see if he comes through,” she says. 


So that could be interpreted as Ms Turia saying she thinks Mr Harawira will win.


3 News asked Ms Turia would she urge Maori Party voters to now back Mr Davis to get rid of Mr Harawira.


“No,” she replied. 

In my opinion these statements represent a casual endorsement of Hone Harawira. Whatever personal animosity lingers between the two, Tariana’s hate for the Labour Party and continued desire to extract utu clearly outweighs any ill-will she harbours for Hone Harawira. Having said that, Duncan Garner reaches the opposite conclusion:

Ms Turia has not gone as far as saying ‘vote for Labour today’ but the message is still clear - the Maori Party is out of the race and if you want rid of Mr Harawira only Mr Davis can now achieve that.

I don’t think this is accurate. Nor do I think many Māori Party voters will lean towards Kelvin Davis. I’ve said before the tino rangatiratanga vote is incompatible with Labour, but comfortable with Hone Harawira. The anti-Hone vote, which really only exists in the minds of Pākehā political journalists, is small as well. I think it is logical to assume that if the Māori Party vote collapses then Hone will be the main beneficiary. Ideologically speaking, there is little to separate Hone and the Māori Party. It would also be a cynical and almost ruthless move to vote Kelvin in an attempt to keep Hone out. I doubt whether that many, if any, Māori Party supporters resent Hone that much. Remember it was Labour’s populism, or betrayal as many Māori Party supporters would portray it, that spawned the Māori Party. I tend to doubt that Māori will ever forget this. Hone is certainly the lesser of two evils. 

This move from Tariana may determine the outcome of the byelection. It is only Tuesday, but as the horrid cliché goes, a week is a long time in politics. I am still calling it for Hone. However, there are now so many factors at play. Can Labour mobilise the vote outside of West Auckland? Has Hone enrolled enough supporters? Will the Māori Party issue directives to their supporters? With so many variables can Hone still win? Definitely, and I am 90% sure he will.      


UPDATE: From TW.com:

Staff at TangataWhenua.com hardly think that the conspiracy theories hold any water, if you know Tariana Turia, although she has and had issues with Hone, she simply HATES Labour and we’d find it hard to believe that she would want to see Labour take the seat.

Agreed. 

Marae Investigates review

Marae Investigates ran a good debate/Q&A show with Kelvin Davis, Solomon Tipene and Hone Harawira this morning. The show also featured political commentators Rawiri Taonui and Ann Sullivan.

Overall, the show was well run. Scotty Morrison is not the best interviewer, but he put forward a number of good questions and shied away from the disruptive style that other Maori interviewers like Willie Jackson and Julian Wilcox favour. Each candidate was given a fair go so credit to Scotty and the producers.

The debate started with a thirty second blurb from the main candidates. In my opinion none of them impressed. Same old, same old really. Kelvin stuck firmly to his successful Maori futures line, Solomon Tipene was better prepared but still underwhelming while Hone seemed to be winging it. The show then cut to a good piece by Jodi Ihaka outlining the problems facing Te Tai Tokerau including unemployment, underachievement in education and looming treaty settlements.

Each candidate was strong on treaty settlements. However, Solomon Tipene put his foot in it when he spouted the “out of grievance mode and into development mode” line. This is a political catchphrase – not a solution or, indeed, a statement with any meaning beyond the emotional.

Both Hone and Kelvin performed well on jobs. Kelvin put forward a number of tangible initiatives that will create jobs tomorrow while Hone was strong on getting people “work ready”. Kelvin was, in my opinion, stronger on jobs – as the Labour candidate should be.

Hone was easily the strongest on rangatahi. He pointed to his strong record creating initiatives like rangatahi radio. Kelvin made the pertinent point that society needs to create hope for rangatahi and belief in their abilities and potential.  

Hone was also strong on the 90 employment law illustrating his new found commitment to working class politics. Hone made the point that no worker, whether Maori or Pakeha, should have to work under such grossly unfair conditions. Hone was strong when he illustrated how unfair the law could be in practise.

I thought Kelvin dealt superbly with whether he is beholden to his party. He pointed out that Labour respects and listens too the Maori caucus. Hone finished the strongest when he said the first phone call he will be making on the day is to Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples. He explained that what is good for Maori is more important than personality politics. Solomon Tipene has also improved exponentially over the past few weeks. He is obviously a quick learner. 

They then cut to the panel with Rawiri Taonui and Ann Sullivan. Both commentators picked Hone as the winner with Taonui saying “Hone’s given a masterful performance” and Sullivan commending Hone as “the consummate performer”. Both praised the other candidates as well. Rawiri Taonui is picking Hone to win by 5% to 10% and also made the interesting comment that whoever wins Tai Tokerau will win Auckland. Rawiri also picked up and endorsed Hone’s line that a vote for Kelvin is a vote for Kelvin, but a vote for Hone is a vote for Hone and Kelvin.

Ultimately, I would give the debate/Q&A to Hone. He knew the issues, he had solutions and he spoke well off the cuff. Hone is a performer and he never fails to give the people a show. For a bit of laugh you can watch Hone here on 7 Days and here on the Jono Show. I guess this is part of a drive to soften Hone’s image. A very effective way to do so - genius almost - comedy is reliable way to endear yourself to others. I wonder if it’s enough though.   

Hone's still the favourite

I guess the big story this week was the Baseline/Native Affairs poll. The poll has thrown a spanner in the works and smashed previous perceptions of how close the byelection will be. Common wisdom held that Hone would cruise past Kelvin and make easy work of Solomon Tipene, however this may not hold true. Assuming the poll has any validity Hone may, in fact, lose. But therein lays the crux of the issue – does this poll have any validity? In my opinion, no.

It is notoriously difficult to poll Maori electorates. Maori, especially low-income Maori renters, are transient and do not and never have had access to a landline telephone. Often times when a polling company does manage to reach a Maori household the eligible voters are not interested in talking. Many of Hone’s supporters, read low income voters, would have been overlooked by this poll. Another significant bloc of Hone Harawira voters would have also passed unseen by this poll – young people. Horizon research finds that three times as many young people are without landlines compared to the general population. I think it is safe to assume this is even higher when you examine the rate for Maori young people. Another potential problem is if the polling company relied on directory listings only when gathering data. I know of a number of whanau who do not bother with the expense of listing their number in the white pages (when a white pages listing does not come with the connection). Apparently the poll only adjusted for age and sex sampling error, but not income level. The Tai Tokerau byelection will be an election voted along class lines. Therefore, it is crucial to correct any income level bias. A poll that does not account for differences in income is then, in my opinion, unreliable at best and invalid at worst. I tend to think I-predict, where Hone is listed as having a 60% chance of winning, is more accurate at the moment.

Considering the poll had such a prominent flaw, i.e. no adjustment for income level, it was interesting to see the Mana Party was on 21% support, the Maori Party on 25% and Labour on 36%. Solomon Tipene claimed during the debate that those results are an indictment against Labour. This is partially true, Labour continues to bleed support. Remember at the last election Labour gained around 50% of the Maori vote. However, most polls, for example the Te Karere Digi-Poll, place Labour at around 35% support and the Maori Party at around 35% support. If anything the Native Affairs poll is an indictment against the Maori Party who appear to have shed more than a few percentage points to the Mana Party.  

Overall, I do not think the poll is worthless, just unreliable. I think it provides a good indication of how the voters in TTT are leaning. Kelvin’s work on the ground appears to be paying dividends, albeit overstated dividends in my opinion. Support for the Maori Party is higher than expected – even in a flawed poll – and Hone may not enjoy the depth of support that I and others thought he enjoyed.

But enough about the polls, how are things going to turn out on the day?

Many commentators are making the odd claim that Labour can out campaign Hone on the ground. This is, frankly, outrageous. It is a safe assumption to make, but it ignores the fact that a bunch of fresh faced Labour activists from Wellington are not going to go down well in the North. These guys may have experience running Grant Robertson’s Wellington Central campaign and handing out flyers for Trevor Mallard in Wainuiomata, but they do not have experience with Maori people and Maori electorates. Hone Harawira can tap nothing short of several hundred activists in the North and even a few here in Wellington. Hone knows TTT better than anyone, he knows every Marae, every whanau and every pohara corner of his electorate. In other words he knows everyone. He knows how to communicate with these people and what they will respond to. He can put more people on the ground, he can out door knock Kelvin and he knows how to grab a headline – that is something Kelvin cannot do. Mana can deploy more people than Labour, that I can almost guarantee. What Mana cannot do is piggy back off general electorate branches, make phone calls on election day, utilise parliamentary staff and resources and generally spend as much as Labour. But this counts for nothing when you have hundreds of vehicles on the road ferrying whanau to election booths, it counts for nothing when you have as many billboards, flyers and other adverts as Kelvin Davis and it counts for nothing when you are the incumbent with a strong narrative and strong base to work from.

But it must be remembered that the poll has lit a fire under the arses of Mana supporters and activists as well as their Labour Party counterparts. Both sides will be going at it hard over the next week. The Mana camp will now be scared, after weeks of cruising. While Labour will sniff the scent of victory and throw every MP, staffer and activists they can at it – and rightly so. The byelection will be won on the ground and it is a competition between Matt McCarten, Unite and Hone’s diehard supporters and Labour’s Shane Phillips/Te Pou (Kelvin’s campaign manager I think) and the Labour Party machine.

Another factor at play is whether or not the Maori Party vote holds. If it does, Hone will win. If it does not, then it depends on what direction it transfers. The conservative vote will flow towards Kelvin, however the residual tino rangatiratanga vote will flow towards Hone. In terms of the Labour Party, tino rangatiratanga is subsumed and relegated within a broader agenda. However, in terms of Mana, tino rangatiratanga is overt and central to a larger agenda. Obviously, the conservative vote will favour Kelvin – Hone is the antithesis of conservatism. Remember to that the Tory in chief, John Key, in the most overt manner possible has endorsed Kelvin Davis. Not that I think his words will affect the outcome to a significant degree, rather it is an interesting directive to the few National Party voters in the North. I wonder if Kelvin really wants the Prime Ministers endorsement?  

A number of people have asked why the Maori Party put forward a candidate in the first place, and a weak one at that. I do not think I have commented on this before so I will hypothesise now. The Maori Party needed to perform a test run before the general election. They needed to determine how a three way race would play out. They needed to know whether it would really benefit Labour. Under the surface they will be hoping that it does. Hone Harawira is a greater threat to the Maori Party than Labour ever will be. Hone plays to the same base as the Maori Party and he is, quite successfully, sucking them dry. If Hone is eliminated the Maori Party can go back to acting as the de-facto voice for Maori and the de-facto Maori opposition. At the moment the Maori Party has to share that job with Hone and in some cases concede that the job belongs to Hone. Furthermore, if Hone is no longer an MP it is conceivable that he will not have a platform to work from and launch an attack on the other Maori seats – especially Waiariki and Tamaki Makaurau. I tend to think the Maori Party are quietly hoping that they scum enough of Hone’s vote to gift the seat to Kelvin.

I stand by my prediction that Hone will win. This is consistent with what the other leading Maori political commentators are saying as well. For example Rawiri Taonui, Tim Selwyn and Willie Jackson. Hone is attracting more support, even significant support from part of the Ratana church with the church offering to campaign for Hone. Ultimately, a vote for anyone but Hone is a wasted vote and a dumb vote. The voters are always right, no doubt about it, but the voters can be dumb. Vote Hone and you get Kelvin on the list as well. Vote Hone and you get a new political party and an energised movement that serves the interests of the marginalised. Vote Kelvin and you get Kelvin – no new movement serving the interest of Maori and non-Maori who are not served. You just get Kelvin. Which in itself is not a bad thing. Kelvin is a great guy and the new face of Maori in Labour. But you only get Kelvin. Voting Hone gives the voters of TTT the best of both worlds. You get Hone, Kelvin and a new political force. Maori are strategic voters, but they are easily led and manipulated by external forces as well. You can make a Maori believe a Maori stereotype if you reinforced it. I hope the people of Tai Tokerau don’t let the bullshit get in the way of voting for change, voting for someone genuine.

As an aside, just a small spiel on who won the debate. Hone did – hands down. He knew his lines and he spoke better ad lib. Kelvin stuck firmly to Labour’s line but did not perform so well when not. Hone was clearly more experienced in the situation and less reliant on soundbites. Solomon Tipene performed better than I expected, but clearly had no experience and was not prepared. Someone should have told him to avoid mentioning National too. It was hardly a debate I should add. More a Q and A session. Julian handled the situation well and managed to control some of the more enthusiastic supporters too. You can watch it here.  

Maori Party Tai Tokerau Candidates

This Wednesday the Maori Party will select a candidate to stand against Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau (TTT). The following candidates have announced their intention to seek the Maori Party nomination:

• Mere Mangu
• Waihoroi Shortland
• Solomon Tipene

On paper, all three are strong candidates. All three whakapapa to Ngati Hine and Mangu and Shortland both link to Matawaia Marae. Perhaps the most interesting candidate is Mangu, a lawyer and retired army captain. Mangu ran as an independent in 2002 and 2005 polling second and third respectively. In 2002 Mangu outpolled Naida Glavish, a prominent Maori leader, while in 2005 Mangu managed to pull almost seven per cent of the vote. This is quite an achievement considering Mangu ran as an independent in both elections.

Shortland is best known as the host of Te Tepu on Maori TV and as “Weirdo” from the movie Boy. I think it is safe to assume that Shortland, as host of Te Tepu which is a Maori language current affairs show, has some understanding of politics and Maori politics in particular.

Solomon Tipene is the co-chair of the Maori Party’s Whangarei branch. Tipene is also involved with Ngati Hine’s treaty claim. As a Maori Party member and treaty negotiator Tipene is not a political newcomer.

Although I do not know how much support each candidate enjoys on the ground, I would tentatively select Mangu as the strongest candidate. Mangu is the only candidate with electoral experience. Although Shortland and Tipene have broader political experience, for example in political commentary, neither candidate possesses campaign experience. Mangu did well as an independent. Remember independent candidates do not have access to party resources, including activists and admin support, independents also lack association with an established brand, struggle to attract media attention and find it difficult to tap donors and volunteers. With this in mind Mangu’s achievements, especially in 2002, are respectable. Having said that, a certain amount of baggage comes with losing two times. But that aside, Mangu has campaign experience and, according to Maori Party vice-president Ken Mair, a “strong profile” on the ground.

Ultimately, I do not think it matters who the Maori Party selects. Hone Harawira will win and Kelvin Davis will poll second - assuming ceteris paribus. For my take on the byelection see this post.