Current reckon: the Maori Party should be worried

Maori Affairs has had a rough time. In government the portfolio is held under a minister outside of Cabinet. But under the last Labour government the portfolio was held under the fifth ranked minister – Parekura Horomia. When Labour lost government the portfolio fell with Parekura’s ranking. It didn’t recover. Until yesterday.

Shane Jones won promotion and the Maori Affairs portfolio is back where it belongs – within the top 5. Jones will take a different approach from Parekura before him and Pita Sharples opposite him. Parekura was and Pita is a relationship politician. They leverage their relationships to achieve change. Shane can build good relationships with other politicians, officials and voters – like Parekura and Pita – but Shane’s cut from a different cloth: he can and will rely on the force of his personality and intellect to drive change. Parekura and Pita didn’t and don’t exert that sort of blunt pressure.

Nanaia Mahuta won promotion too. She’s in the shadow cabinet and holds the Maori development and Treaty settlement portfolios. Nanaia can open doors. She’s experienced and knows how Maori politics works. But there’s one problem: can and will Shane and Nanaia work together? If not, Labour will forfeit its advantage over Mana and the Maori parties: stability.

The Maori caucus split between supporting David Cunliffe and Shane Jones. That might not be indicative of deep rifts – but only differences in opinion - but the perception is building that Labour’s Maori caucus is fractured. If the Maori caucus doesn’t signal that it’s going to sew up its divisions then the Greens will credibly make a claim to being the only stable kaupapa Maori party.

The other member of the Maori team is Rino Tirikatene. He retains the Associate Maori Affairs role. Rino will act as Shane’s deputy and Nanaia will go about her roles. Meka Whaitiri didn’t win a Maori portfolio. That’s a shame. I think she could have deputised for Nanaia in the way that Rino will deputise for Shane. The challenge for Shane and Rino is to find cohesion. The challenge for Nanaia is to exploit the (very few) cracks in the government’s Treaty policy. That’s not easy. Reshuffling was never going to be an outcome in itself, but it will bring a focus that the Maori Party should be worried about. There are now three Labour MPs - including two front benchers - who are coming for the Maori Party's jobs.

Post script: props to Louisa Wall and Moana Mackey. Their promotions were richly deserved. Wall steered through the Marriage Equality Act with clarity and confidence. Despite entering Parliament in 2003, Mackey hasn’t registered. That’s a shame. She works hard and is rarely acknowledged for it. In 2012 she robustly opposed the Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf Act. She carried Labour on that count and others. Her promotion is overdue.

Symbolism vs substance: is the Maori Party doing anything?

There was a fascinating exchange in yesterday’s question time between Labour’s Rino Tirikatene and the Minister of Maori Affairs:

RINO TIRIKATENE (Labour—Te Tai Tonga)… to the Minister of Māori Affairs: Does he stand by his statement regarding the Māori Economic Taskforce that “These developments led to immediate outcomes that have supported whānau through the recession… if so, why?

Hon Dr PITA SHARPLES (Minister of Māori Affairs):… definitely. The work of the task force has resulted in a number of demonstrable successes. Importantly, without these types of interventions, whānau and Māori businesses would undoubtedly have been worse off through difficult economic times.

The interesting parts came in the supplementary questions:

Rino Tirikatene: How can he stand by that statement when the median income for Māori was 93 percent of the overall median income in 2008, and has now, in 2013, fallen to 85 percent of the overall median income?

Hon Dr PITA SHARPLES: The good news is—and it is not that good—that there has been a decrease in the last quarter in the rate of unemployed Māori, both Māori youth, by 2 percent, and general Māori, by 1 percent. But, you know, none of us enjoy this low rate, and, clearly, the country has to do more about it.

The Maori unemployment rate is (still) more than double the national rate. Maori youth unemployment is at “crisis” level with more than 1 in 4 Maori youth unemployed. In that context, a 2 and 1 per cent decrease isn’t remarkable. Add a decrease in income (in real terms) and ask if the Maori Party is at the table, but unable to insulate Maori against the worst effects of the global recession, what’s the point? If Maori are going backwards it undermines the at the table rationale. 

[There is a point of order and Rino Tirikatene repeats the question]

Hon Dr PITA SHARPLES: Despite the ventures that we have created—in export for Māori, trade training, and helping homes that are in poverty—this is the situation that exists. It is not good; none of us like it, but it is the reality. We are always the first off, last on. So this is what happens. While everything else grows, Māori come last.

I wouldn’t mention Maori exporting – the government cut Maori export funding in the budget.

If the “reality” is that Maori are “first off, last on” and while the New Zealand economy grows “Maori come last”, what’s the point of the Maori Party entering and remaining in government?

I take it that Minister Sharples is implicitly acknowledging that there are structural barriers, but he shrugs his shoulders at those barriers. Meh.

Rino Tirikatene: Why is he claiming that whānau have been supported through the recession when in the Te Tai Rāwhiti - Tūranga region and across Ngāti Kahungunu weekly real per capita income for Māori has fallen by 14 percent, while real per capita income for non-Māori has increased by 3 percent?

Hon Dr PITA SHARPLES: It is very lucky that it has not fallen further. But, because of our interventions, it is in a better state. For example, trade training, Māra Kai, Warm Up New Zealand: Healthy Homes, cadetships, marae—these are all things that we have put into place to take care of these things. We have increased Māori business exports, and when you do that the money trickles back to the hapū and the iwi…

“Because of our interventions…” Well, we’ll never know if Maori would have been better or worse off, but I’m prepared to accept that we’re better off with the Maori Party in government. However, I remain convinced that the Maori Party’s success is more symbolic than substantive. On most indicators Maori are regressing or remaining static. The Maori unemployment rate is double the national rate, 51% of prisoners are Maori and “costs prevented 23% of Maori adults, and 8% of Maori children, from visiting a GP” when they needed to.

To reverse 173 years of inequality Maori need policies directed across the entire economy (and society). Whanau Ora, Mara Kai, Warm Up New Zealand – as well intentioned as they are – are not enough. Whanau Ora, Mara Kai and Warm Up New Zealand are remedial measures rather than redistributory measures. In other words, correcting a consequence rather than eliminating the cause. That’s the problem the Maori Party faces: they’re treating the symptoms rather than the cause.

Life in Ford block, Kaiti, Maraenui, Mangere, Otara, Porirua and Wainuiomata is no better than it was 10 years ago. I’d wager that it’s worse. Kawerau has changed – for the worse. Whanau Ora, Mara Kai and Warm Up New Zealand – as well intentioned as they are – don’t reach most Maori. Not enough to create critical mass. Targeted assistance isn’t a panacea. Maori need policies directed across the entire economy (and society). Without it, I'll keep holding that the Maori Party's wins are more symbolic than substantive. 

Reminder: Maori electoral option

Via TVNZ:

Labour's Associate Maori Affairs spokesperson Rino Tirikatene is reminding voters that the Maori enrolment option opens today. 

Tirikatene says it is important that Maori consider their options as it only comes up once every five years. 

"It's important that Maori voters know that the option is open because it determines who will represent them in Parliament. 

"The Maori electorates anchor Maori political power. They also ensure guarantee that kaupapa Maori issues are represented in Parliament." said Tirikatene. 

The number of Maori enrolled on the Maori roll has steadily increased from 101,585 in 1993 to 229,666 in 2008. 

As a result the number of Maori electorates has increased from four in 1993 to seven in 2008.

I've outlined why this is important and Rino makes a similar point. The option is open for the next four months and if you're of Maori descent you should receive an enrolment pack this week.  

Katene shoots herself in the foot

Well, it turns out Rahui Katene has been advertising herself as the MP for Te Tai Tonga on Facebook. 

Katene was claiming yesterday that people were still coming to her “for help”. Well, that’s no surprise when she’s advertising herself as the MP for Te Tai Tonga.

In any event, I find it almost impossible to believe that Christchurch residents are going to Rahui for help. After all, she’s based in Wellington – far removed from Christchurch. Christchurch residents would have to have access to Katene’s personal number, email or address. It’s not plausible that anyone outside of the Maori Party circles have those details. Therefore, it’s likely that Maori Party supporters or those connected with the party are still going to Rahui - if anyone is at all. 

I don’t want to make this story any bigger than it is, because that gives undeserved oxygen to Rahui Katene in her increasingly desperate bid to remain relevant.

 

Rahui Katene claiming to be the MP for Te Tai Tonga

The best and worst Maori MPs for May

Well, it doesn’t take long for the tables to turn. Last month I named Hekia Parata one of the best performing Maori MPs - this month she is one of the worst. Tariana Turia and Te Ururoa Flavell didn’t even rate a mention, but this month they occupy the top positions. Rino Tirikatene wasn’t on the radar, but his push for Maori seats on the Nelson City Council and across New Zealand pushes him to the top list. True to form Hone Harawira rated as one of the best performing MPs last month, yet a dismal performance – by his own high standards – sees him fall off the radar this month. 

For the full list and explanation click here or on the tab at the top of the page.

Rahui Katene stirs the pot

RNZ’s Te Manu Korihi is leading with some interesting news:

Rino Tirikatene's political record of representing Maori in Christchurch is coming under attack from the woman he ousted from the Te Tai Tonga electorate last year.

Former Maori Party MP Rahui Katene says people affected by the earthquake are being ignored and constituents are still coming to her for help on issues such as roads, water and jobs.

She says that's a real problem because Labour Party MP Rino Tirikatene does not seem to be doing anything to help Maori he represents.

Ms Katene claims Mr Tirikatene is referring Maori constituents to the Pakeha MPs in Christchurch.

Rahui Katene is doing what she can to remain relevant and that involves stirring the pot. Rino has responded, quite rightly too, saying that many constituents have come to him citing the poor service Rahui gave last term. This, I think when examining the evidence, holds true. Rahui lost Christchurch despite having cultivated a significant profile in the wake of the earthquakes. If Rahui was doing a good job, then it follows that she would win more votes than Rino in Christchurch. This, however, was not the case and can only be read as an indictment against Rahui’s record in the city.

Rahui doesn’t have the coverage and connections Rino has across the electorate. Add to that the likelihood of Dora Langsbury and a Mana candidate standing and it becomes near impossible for Rahui to win – especially without the advantage of incumbency. Rahui can tend to her media profile, but that isn’t nearly enough to win a Maori electorate. Failure will be a deathblow against Rahui’s political career. You can’t, after all, lead the Maori Party without a seat in Parliament – it just isn’t practical.

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I have done some work for Rino in the past. 

Rahui Katene to stand in 2014 (updated)

As I think I predicted last year, former MP Rahui Katene has put her hand up to lead the Maori Party:

Former Maori Party MP Rahui Katene has indicated she wants to lead the party when the current co-leaders step down.

Ms Katene lost her southern Maori seat of Te Tai Tonga at the last election, but plans to stand again in 2014.

She says three years in Parliament was not long enough for her vision for Te Tai Tonga to be put into place.

The lawyer says she would stand again as an MP for the Maori Party - and be leader - if that is what the people want.

She says she is making herself available and she would love to advocate on voters' behalf.

Ms Katene says she would seek re-election in Te Tai Tonga because that is where she is from and where her iwi is.

First of all, let me declare my conflict of interest here. I’m doing a little bit of work for Rino Tirikatene, the current MP for Te Tai Tonga.

Anywho, Rahui will not win in 2014, bar an extraordinary and unforeseen event. Te Tai Tonga has never been, and probably never will be, a natural electorate for the Maori Party to target. Te Tai Tonga is far different in character from the other six Maori electorates, mainly in that tino rangatiratanga is not the dominant ideology among Maori in the electorate.

If Rahui is serious about winning back the seat, basing herself in Wellington is not the best decision. When Rahui won the seat in 2008, she did so off of the back of Wellington. With that in mind, she should be targeting areas in the south where she is weak and where voter support is soft. Christchurch is, arguably, the centre of the electorate and the prize, so naturally it should be her base.

Profile is important in any electorate, but that is one area where Rahui failed. She did not build a solid support base before and leading into election year, which meant her hold on Te Tai Tonga was always going to be tenuous. From a strategic point of view, Rahui failed to carry her support in Wellington – her stronghold in 2008 - and did not solidify the young vote (where she did well in 2008).  

If Rahui wants to win, Tariana Turia should anoint her as the successor in Te Tai Hauauru. However, even then, without tribal links to and knowledge of the electorate Rahui’s chances would be marginal. Tamaki Makaurau is an electorate where tribal links are not as important, so that could be a possibility. However, Rahui has no profile in the electorate.

Under the Maori Party constitution, there must be a male and female leader. At the moment, the leader in waiting is Te Ururoa Flavell – who isn’t guaranteed a win so long as Annette Sykes stands again. I think, come 2014, the Maori Party is finished. The narrative that the Maori Party are sell-outs is set and the party has failed to counter it. Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples are, perhaps, the only genuinely pan-Maori leaders in Parliament. Te Ururoa and Rahui don’t have the pan-Maori appeal of the current leaders. Unless the Maori Party defines a base, for example conservative Maori, the party will fail with Te Ururoa and Rahui who are not pan-Maori leaders.

New Maori Affairs Select Committee

The makeup of the Maori Affairs Select Committee (MASC) was recently announced. The opposition parties love the MASC because National doesn’t have a majority. Of the 12 seats, Labour, the Greens and Mana control six while National holds five. This gives the Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell the casting vote. The members of the committee are:

• Tau Henare (Chair)
• Parekura Horomia (Deputy Chair)
• Jami-Lee Ross
• Katrina Shanks
• Louise Upton
• Nicky Wagner
• Rino Tirikatene
• Louisa Wall
• Metiria Turei
• Hone Harawira
• Brendan Horan
• Te Ururoa Flavell

Shanks, Upton and Wagner are not Maori. That’s fine with me, but, in my opinion, non-Maori are at a disadvantage when it comes to the committees work. The other members come to the committee with knowledge of Maori issues, Maori culture, Maori nuances and so on. Those members will find it easier to engage with Maori, grapple with Maori issues and produce conclusions from a Maori perspective.

No surprise to see Tau Henare as Chair or Parekura Horomia as Deputy. Simon Bridges is a notable omission, then again he now chairs the important Finance and Expenditure Committee and has been careful not to pigeonhole himself as a “Maori MP”, rather an MP of Maori descent. 

I find it interesting that the Green’s have inserted Metiria Turei on to the committee rather than a junior Maori MP like Denise Roche. No surprise to see new MPs like Rino Tirikatene and Brendan Horan on the committee. They’ll cut their teeth on what is, pretty much, a friendly committee for opposition members.

The committee is due to report on their inquiry into the determinants of wellbeing for Maori children. I don’t think this inquiry was really necessary, but it will fit well with the growing narrative around child poverty and inequality. Other than that, there isn’t too much to expect from the committee in the coming months.

Ratana celebrations begin

The poli-scramble at Ratana begins today. Labour leader David Shearer will be welcomed onto the Marae alongside much of his caucus and, symbolically, Metiria Turei and the Green’s Maori caucus. As is tradition, Labour will enter the Marae and meet with the Ratana leadership before National. If my memory serves me correctly the only occasion where National was invited onto the Marae before Labour was in 2010. Mana’s Hone Harawira will also enter the Marae this week with his Ratana Minister, Kereama Pene (unless he already has). The Maori Party’s Pita Sharples will accompany the Prime Minister when he enters the Marae (Tariana Turia is already on the Marae) and Winston Peters will visit tomorrow.

Interestingly, the Greens will accompany Labour onto the Marae. This is, I believe, a first. The decision to invite the Green’s onto the Marae with Labour signals, perhaps, the beginning of Maori acceptance of the Green’s as a party of Maori and for Maori. Prior to the election, the Greens were viewed as an outlier when it came to things Maori. The party often polled sub 5% among Maori despite strong Maori representation within the parliamentary wing, a comprehensive Maori policy statement and a consistently pro-Maori stance. In 2012 this, coupled with the ascension of Metiria Turei and serious Green candidates in the Maori electorates, appears to be contributing to an acceptance of the Greens as a Maori party.

Labour will also hold their caucus meeting on the Marae and the party will look to make maximum use of Rino Tirikatene. Rino and his whanau are well connected to the Ratana movement. David Shearer and Labour’s media team have lost no time in making this known. Louisa Wall, MP for Manurewa, is also connected to the Church.

Despite the pro-Labour mood, we should expect to see some anti-Labour rhetoric. The Marae is a place for debate and dissenting views are always encouraged. In front of the nation’s media some anti-Labour Ratana members may look to make a point.

The mood at the Pa appears, to me at least, far less favourable towards National and the Maori Party. Labour, the Greens and Mana could, if they play it right on the paepae and among the people, reclaim some of the ground lost to National and the Maori Party in previous years.

Native Affairs post-election special

If you didn’t watch Native Affairs last night, you should. In their last show for the year, and probably the best of the year, Julian and Annabelle hosted a raft of MPs and a brilliant panel (minus Mike King who was pretty bad).

Julian interviewed Pita Sharples, Winston Peters, Hone Harawira, Shane Jones, Meteria Turei, Rino Tirikatene, Simon Bridges and Louisa Wall. Annabelle discussed the interviews with Sandra Lee, Matt McCarten and Mike King. I don’t want to have a moan about Mike King, but I can’t let it slide that following Meteria’s interview King admitted to having never seen Meteria in action before. Even worse King then proceeded to speak of Meteria as if he’s never seen a sharp Maori women nor ever expected to see one. Prior to that King was salivating all over Winston again, just like he did on Saturday night.

Anyway, Pita Sharples came across as despondent. He found himself having to defend why the Maori Party lost a seat, had their party vote slashed and majorities in their remaining electorates slashed. Pita did have the good sense to admit the party’s relationship with National contributed to, or is still contributing to, the decline of the Maori Party.

Winston was, well he was Winston. Hugely charismatic, likeable in a mischief way and abrasive. Winston touched on good themes, for example poverty and asset sales, but he reverted to attacking the media when it wasn’t justified. He tried to dump Maori TV in the same basket as the mainstream media which was, in my opinion, patently unfair and a great way to burn bridges. After all, the Maori media have given Winston fair and consistent coverage.

Hone, true to form, gave a good interview. He was upfront and he added a dash of humour. Nothing really stood out.

Shane Jones. What a waste. The panel pointed out Shane was the first Labour MP to give an honest account of their loss. He didn’t sugar coat it, he didn’t repeat Labour’s lines, he called it as he saw it. 3 out 4 New Zealanders didn’t vote Labour (discounting the one million who didn’t vote) and that’s a problem they need to address.

Meteria Turei was the best performer of the night. As Mike King found out, Meteria is hugely intelligent, incredibly articulate and she’s pretty charismatic. The best Maori leader in Parliament in my opinion. Every thing was to the point and she didn’t deviate from the script.

Rino was given a soft interview and still seems like the win is yet to sink in. Julian almost caught Rino out when he put the proposition to him that would he support Ngai Tahu if they want to snap up SOEs. Rino seemed surprised and quickly stated Labour’s position.

Simon Bridges and Louisa Wall appeared together. Both MPs won huge majorities in their respective electorates. Louisa is the first Maori woman from Labour to win a general electorate and Simon is one of National’s best, no the best, Maori MP. Yes, better than Hekia Parata. In Mike King’s best call of the night he called Simon on his smugness. Mike correctly identified that NZders hate smug politicians, or smug people in general actually.The panel agreed Simon is a future leader of the National Party and maybe the first Maori Prime Minister. Agreed.

My picks and my votes

If you want to know my picks for the Maori electorates you can take a look at my latest post over at Pundit. My calls are largely consistent with what I’ve been saying for the past year.

On a slightly related note I’m going to tell you how I plan to vote. Deciding to whom I’m going to give my electorate vote isn’t hard. Readers will know I’m openly supportive of Annette Sykes so I guess it’s no secret that’s where my electorate vote will fall. Yes, I live in Wellington, but I’m still enrolled in Waiariki (I’ll get round to changing this soon). If I was enrolled in Te Tai Tonga I’d be casting a vote for Rino Tirikatene. Rahui Katene hasn’t impressed me over the past three years.

Readers may, however, be a little surprised when it comes to my party vote. I thought about this pretty hard and I’ve decided to cast my party vote for the Greens – not Mana. Although I support Mana and almost everything the party stands for, I don’t agree with all of their policies. On the other hand, scrolling through the Greens catalogue of policies I found myself agreeing with almost everything. My vote will not be informed on Maori issues alone, if it was I’d vote Mana, but across the board the Greens have the most comprehensive set of policies and, in my opinion, the best plan for moving New Zealand forward. This doesn’t mean I’m all of a sudden an enthusiastic Green Party supporter. I really, really, really dislike Russell Norman.

I should add I’m not voting strategically. I’m voting on principle. Annette Sykes is the best candidate in Waiariki and the Greens offer the best plan for New Zealand. That’s it.

Te Tai Tonga, Sharples and Brash, Tainui and asset sales

I don’t have much time to blog this week so I’ll quickly comment on a few things I’ve missed over the last few days:


Te Tai Tonga

The latest Te Karere Digipoll puts Rahui Katene ahead of Labour’s Rino Tirikatene. Katene is on 46% to Tirikatene’s 35%. The last Te Karere poll put Tirikatene on 41% to Katene’s 34%. Hurricane Clinton Dearlove registers 9% support while the Green’s Dora Langsbury comes in with 10% support. I think the following has happened: 1) Katene has, realising it’s do or die, reenergised her campaign and reclaimed the momentum 2) Dearlove and Langsbury have siphoned more votes from Tirikatene than they have from Katene 3) Tirikatene is suffering from a swing against Labour. The seat is now 50/50. Whereas everyone was picking a win for Tirikatene, this isn’t so sure anymore. 

A Tirikatene win is certainly still possible. As Digipoll points out, Tirikatene’s older support base is far more likely to vote and younger voters, who strongly support Katene, usually change sides at the last minute. Jobs and asset sales also rank as important issues. This is where Tirikatene will be strong. No one can forget Katene going against the wishes of iwi in Te Tai Tonga, notably Ngai Tahu, and voting for the MCA Act as well. Meanwhile Katene is calling for better resourcing for Maori electorates. The Maori electorates are huge and there is a need for access to more staffers and more expense funding. Apparently Katene could do with three staffers. I say try six. Maori electorate MPs are allowed three staffers and an EA so I don’t know why Katene is saying she could do with three when she’s allowed three.


Pita Sharples vs Brash

The Maori Party continue the line that they need to be at the Cabinet table to oppose Don Brash. Firstly, the Maori Party sit outside of Cabinet – so they’re not really at the Cabinet table. If Act enter a formal coalition with National, rather than a confidence and supply agreement, then Brash will sit at the table (in a figurative and literal sense) to the exclusion of the Maori Party (because what are the chances they will enter a formal coalition). This makes the whole at the table rhetoric a little hollow.


Tainui support the Maori Party on asset sales

In an about turn Tuku Morgan has come out in support of the Maori Party’s stance on asset sales. Previously Tuku actively supported the sale of assets and iwi acquisition of those assets. However, Tuku now opposes asset sales, but should assets come on the market Tuku will look to invest. Tuku reckons that the Maori Party is looking out for the needs of Maori. If this isn’t an endorsement, then I don’t know what is. 

This is a blow for John Key. The Iwi Leadership Group were, at one point, one of the strongest advocates for asset sales. John Key is quickly losing his allies on this issue. Without Iwi support and the active opposition of Mana and the Maori Party the Nats won't be able to sell the idea to Maori. Not that they need Maori support.

Martin Cooper controversy

By all accounts Martin Cooper is a good guy and has done a lot for the community. Fair enough. He still abused his position and should suffer the consequences though. The Herald on Sunday followed up on their story from the week before this time revealing Cooper wanted to give some guy the bash or something.


Tamaki Makaurau debate

Four strong candidates. I like picking winners, unlike Joshua Hitchcock who has blogged a brilliant summary here, but I genuinely can’t pick one. Each candidate was strong in certain areas. No candidate did them or their parties a disservice let’s put it that way.

Native Affairs Kowhiri 11: Te Tai Tonga

New Zealand politics is devoid of genuine charisma. Kiwi politicians have that matey sort of charm or a very casual allure, but nothing in the way of real magnetism, read charisma. Enter Clinton Dearlove. “Hurricane Dearlove” (as he is known now) came storming out of left field in last nights Te Tai Tonga election debate. This from the NZ Herald:

Maori Party MP Rahui Katene started strong but was soon paddling against the tide, and finished the Te Tai Tonga debate looking frazzled and beaten.

Meanwhile Mana candidate Clinton Dearlove was full of beginner nerves, but soon found his feet to deliver a message with emphatic authority, along with an Obama-esque smile.

There is now a palpable sense among Mana supporters that Dearlove can steal the seat. On the basis of his performance last night this is a reasonable expectation, but I doubt it. Instead, I think Dearlove has done enough to snatch a significant number of votes from Rahui Katene and push the seat towards Rino Tirikatene. Rino was, in my opinion, going to win whether Clinton did well or not. I always thought there were enough tribal Labour voters coupled with a large enough reflex backlash against the Maori Party (for supporting, among other things, the MCA Act and the tax switch) to hand the seat to Rino. And, perhaps, Rino is best placed to represent Te Tai Tonga. Rino made the point that Labour, as one of the major parties, is best placed to achieve change for Maori. This is, for the most part, true. Labour will always sanction or lead change for Maori. The minor parties, Mana, Maori and the Greens, will always be subordinate to either National or Labour. Having said that, this doesn’t mean minor parties are irrelevant. The minor parties play a fundamental role in introducing Maori issues onto the agenda and pushing change. However, going back to the main point, Labour, or sometimes National, will always sanction or lead change.

As I said last night every candidate communicated their message well. I think Rino and Rahui were quite nervous, but this is to be expected, after all, all the pressure was on those two. Dora Langsbury and Clinton Dearlove were not weighed down under the pressure of expectation. They had nothing to lose and nothing to prove whereas last night was probably in Rahui and Rinos minds make or break.

Rahui performed well choosing to follow her leaders lines and focus on what the Maori Party has achieved – even though some of her claims were erroneous. Rino was weighed down by expectation, but outperformed everyone on the economy. He had his soundbites at the ready and delivered them with finesse. I was impressed with the pace of his delivery. He adjusted his tone in response to the audience mood as well. Dora Langsbury did well on policy. The Greens are always strong on policy so it is no surprise Dora performed well here. Clinton did well on all fronts. He delivered his message powerfully. He was animated, he concentrated on the message and was not too mindful of the medium (i.e. the cameras), the tone was conversational and the pitch was perfect.

I’m hesitant to name a winner. I think they all performed well in certain areas. In my opinion the debate is going to break Rahui and reward Clinton and, as a result, Rino. Clinton will seep enough votes from Rahui in Wellington, where Mana is strongest in Te Tai Tonga, to award the seat to Rino.

Te Tai Tonga - the lowdown

Today’s post is the first in a series analysing each Maori electorate. Over the next few weeks I’ll be exploring each electorate. I’ll assess the candidates, gauge the voters, lay out the issues and, most importantly, forecast the result. I thought about endorsing candidates, but then I thought most of you probably don’t care and, for the ones that do care, it’ll be fairly obvious where my preferences lay.   

I’ll preface this post and say that each post in the series will be horrendously long. Unless you’re a political junkie, you’re probably going to find this series horrifically dry. But don’t let that stop you. I like to think this series will be important and useful as far as Maori political discourse goes.

As far as I know, no one has offered an in depth analysis of any of the Maori electorates – ever. With that in mind, I thought I’d give it a go. Commentary and analysis on the Maori electorates, and Maori politics in general, is thin.

The Stats

Te Tai Tonga is the most under analysed electorate and the most homogenous. Ngai Tahu exercises rangatiratanga (authority) over most of the South Island alongside Waitahi, Ngati Mamoe and a small number of other Iwi. Te Ati Awa exercise rangatiratanga over the Wellington section of Te Tai Tonga as well as parts of the upper South Island. Today, Maori from the East Coast, for example Ngati Porou, are prominent in Wellington while Maori from the North Island, for example Nga Puhi, are prominent in Christchurch. Maori from other Iwi outnumber Te Ati Awa in Wellington. Ngai Tahu is the most populous Iwi in the South.

The Maori population in Te Tai Tonga is overwhelmingly young, 59.8% of Maori are 29 or under. In comparison with other Maori electorates Te Tai Tonga is, for want of a better term, more well off. For example, 13.3% of Te Tai Tonga households earn over $100,000 while only 8.1% of households in neighbouring Ikaroa-Rawhiti earn over $100,000. Te Tai Tonga is also, relatively speaking, more educated than most other Maori electorates. 9.2% of Maori in Te Tai Tonga hold a Bachelors Degree or higher compared with only 5.6% of Maori in bordering Te Tai Hauaru.

In the 2008 election Rahui Katene won, rather easily, with a majority of over 1000. Labour’s Mahara Okeroa was the second placed candidate gaining almost 42% of the vote while the Green candidate polled at almost 11%. In 2005 Okeroa secured 47% of the vote (in 2008 the situation reversed with Katene winning 47%). The Maori Party candidate won 34% of the vote while the Green candidate, Metiria Turei no less, gathered 12% of the vote.

In both the 2005 and 2008 election Labour cleaned up in the party vote stakes with 57% of the vote in 2005 and 49% in 2008. The Maori Party, Nats and Greens polled second, third and fourth respectively. The Maori Party increased their share of the vote from 17% in 2005 to 22% in 2008. National increased their vote from 7% to 11% while the Greens remained largely static rising less than a percentage point from 2005 to 2008. In the 2002 election Okeroa annihilated his competitors and the Greens and New Zealand First outpolled National.

The Candidates

Ok, hopefully you managed to make it through that. Political forecasting, if you will, combines a number of factors including historical trends, the contemporary situation and a little bit of intuition. To make an informed judgement you need to lay out the facts. Hence the above.

Four candidates will contest Te Tai Tonga. The incumbent, Rahui Katene of the Maori Party, Labour’s Rino Tirikatene, Clinton Dearlove of the Mana Movement and Dora Langsbury from the Greens.

Rahui has held the seat since 2008. Rahui is a qualified lawyer and a former policy analyst and nurse. She is a member of a number of select committees and connects to Iwi across the entire South Island.

Rino Tirikatene is, for want of a better description, a political pedigree. His Koro, Eruera Tirikatene, held the Southern Maori seat (aka Te Tai Tonga) for a number of years as did his Aunty Whetu Tirikatene-Sullivan. Rino has worked for top law firm Simpson Grierson as well as Maori development organisations for 12 years. Rino stood for Te Tai Tonga Te Puku O Te Whenua in 1996:

“This is not my first time representing the Labour Party. At the tender age of 23 my father passed away, he was to stand for Labour in the Southern Maori seat. I took up his mantel in 1996 and carried on his journey”.

Clinton Dearlove is, in Wellington political circles at least, an unknown quantity. I had never heard of him nor had anyone I’d spoken to. Dearlove affiliates to Waitaha and Nga Puhi (the second most populous Iwi in the South). Dearlove holds an honours degree in Science from the University of Otago (very few Maori hold any sort of science qualification) and his primary interest appears to be education (he is a secondary school teacher of 10 years).

Dora Langsbury stood for the Greens at the last election. Langsbury is of Ngai Tahu, Waitaha and Ngati Mamoe descent and works for Te Wananga o Aotearoa. According to the Greens website Langsbury policy interests are:

Areas of interest include Maori Affairs, Treaty of Waitangi, Seabed and Foreshore, Iwi settlement process, sustainable housing and transport, buy local, water management, education, mental health, public health, humane standard of living, disability affairs

The Analysis

Readers will know I’m picking Rino Tirikatene to snatch the seat.

Rahui Katene is the invisible Maori Party MP. Sharples and Turia are the leaders, Flavell is the workhorse and Hone was the principled voice (or the big mouth). Rahui, however, was not known for much beyond being Turia’s lapdog. She breathlessly followed her leaders despite pressure from within, read from Hone and his supporters, and pressure from without, read from Maori generally (think the foreshore and seabed hikoi etc).

The vote in the Maori electorates is a personality vote. Most Maori don’t vote along party lines. However, Rahui is one of the few Maori MP’s to ride off of the success of her party. In 2008 the Maori Party had built enough momentum to launch an assault on Te Tai Tonga without having to stand a moneyed or widely known candidate. The party’s credibility peaked in 2008 and so to did their support among voters and their support from politically minded Maori (i.e. campaigners etc).

Another factor that played into Rahui’s hands was Mahara Okeroa’s age and perceived uselessness (or actual uselessness is how I see it). Maori snubbed Labour in 2008 - their share of the party vote dropped and only two Labour MP's managed to hold their seats. 

Having said all of that, one factor will benefit Rahui’s chances – the Christchurch earthquake. Rahui has received, and rightly so, kudos for her work in Christchurch. From day one Rahui has moved across the city lending a hand or a sympathetic ear to her constituents. As the MP for Te Tai Tonga this is her job and she has, by all accounts, performed it with distinction.

However, Christchurch is not where the electorate will be won. Support in the South Island is, for the most part, evenly split between the Maori Party and Labour. Labour cleaned up the candidate vote in Bluff and the party holds an acceptable lead in Invercargill and Timaru. It is fairly even in Dunedin and Christchurch with the Maori Party enjoying the most slender of leads. 

(here is the link to the booth by booth breakdown of the electorate)

Wellington is where the electorate will be won. Rahui thrashed Mahara Okeroa across Wellington. From Rongotai to Petone to Wellington Central Rahui cleaned up. So, assuming Rino Tirikatene holds Mahara Okeroa’s support in the South, Wellington will become the key battle ground.

My money is on Rino Tirikatene to win in the South and peel back Rahui’s lead in Wellington. Petone and Rongotai, and most other Wellington suburbs, are traditional Labour strongholds and will follow a strong Labour candidate. Wellington Central Maori, many of whom are public servants, will also punish the Maori Party for their alliance with the public service bashing National Party. Then again, the only Maori I know who ever voted or vote National are public servants. I still can’t figure out why this is, but that’s for another post.

Tirikatene has run a clean campaign across the entire electorate. Nothing flashy, nothing nasty, just an old fashioned campaign focussing on the issues and exploring the solutions. Rino will benefit from a reflex backlash against the Maori Party and, according to the latest Marae digipoll, he already enjoys a healthy lead. However, as a qualification I must add that I do not place too much faith in the results of that poll and will tell you why in my next post.

Ultimately I think the vote will follow whoever is perceived to be the strongest and most effective candidate. In my mind, and from what I have ascertained from living in Te Tai Tonga, the strongest candidate is Rino Tirikatene. Rino comes from an illustrious line of Maori politicians and demonstrated out in the traps that he is the smartest and most promising candidate. His experience in the corporate world and in Maori development roles gives him the experience he needs to cut in the throat slitting world of Parliament and the challenging world that is contemporary Maoridom.

Rahui is perceived as nice, but weak. She followed her leaders like a puppy, despite numerous protestations from her constituents (especially Ngai Tahu re the MCA Act).

I doubt the Mana candidate, Clinton Dearlove, win a significant amount of votes, but he will, despite this, make an impact. Only a well known and moneyed candidate could gain a large number of votes this late in the game. Clinton Dearlove is largely unknown and Mana is perhaps weakest in the South so he cannot fall back on the party branches in the South. Mana is, however, strong in Wellington. I tend to think Dearlove (cool name eh) will steal more than a few votes from Rahui in Wellington and, thus, hand the city to Rino and, consequently, the electorate (as I said the winner must win Wellington). The natural transition for disgruntled Maori Party voters is to Mana. Mana also enjoys a strong set up in Wellington so despite Dearlove’s low profile he can rely on strong party support to push his name and message in the city. Given the makeup of Te Tai Tonga (i.e. the young age profile of the electorate) Dearlove is likely to pick up a few votes in the South thus handing Rino a slight advantage in the South too. Dearlove is also of Nga Puhi descent and Nga Puhi is the second most populous Iwi in the South. Having whakapapa to the most populous Iwi will work in Dearlove’s favour.

I haven’t heard anything from the Green candidate and as a result I doubt she will impact the race in a big way. The Greens are focussing on the party vote – not the candidate vote.

Conculsion

The key battleground is Wellington. As I said, the Mana candidate will snatch enough votes from Rahui in Wellington to allow Rino to charge up the middle and win the city and the electorate. Rahui has not done enough in the past term nor enough in the last few months to fend off the strong challenge Labour is mounting.

Should the Maori Party lose Te Tai Tonga the National Party has reason to worry. Given the pathetic state of the Act Party and the unprecedented possibility of the governing party obtaining an outright majority, a strong Maori Party increases the chances of a second term National Government.

The next post in this series will examine the other marginal electorate – Waiariki. The next post will examine Te Tai Tokerau in the wake of the results from the Marae Digipoll. At this point I’m unsure whether or not I will have time to finish this series and examine the other electorates. Exams are approaching for me. Hopefully I can find the time.

I'm back

A week is a long time in politics, or so the cliché goes. With that in mind I won’t attempt to deal with all the goings on in Maori politics that I’ve missed over the past week or so. A few things cannot pass without comment though.

Firstly, I want to pay tribute to Sir Paul Reeves – the first Maori Governor-General, former Archbishop of New Zealand and more recently Chancellor of Auckland University of Technology. Sir Paul will be remembered primarily as the first Maori Governor-General. During his tenure Sir Paul expressed public disapproval with Rogernomics stating that “the spirit of the market steals life from the vulnerable but the spirit of God gives life to all”. Sir Paul’s appointment was met with some disdain as many New Zealanders felt that his previous political involvement tainted his occupation of the apolitical Office of the Governor-General. As a man of God, sympathetic Labour Party supporter and tino rangatiratanga advocate Sir Paul was seen as compromised. However, upon taking Office Sir Paul allayed these fears and performed his duties with passion and impartiality.

Sir Paul whakapapas to Te Atiawa in the Taranaki. His hapu is Puketapu. Although Sir Paul was raised Pakeha, or in a Pakeha world, this did not alter his sense of identity as a Maori nor did it ever stop him discovering and embracing his whakapapa. I think history will remember Sir Paul as a man of humanity. I will remember Sir Paul for his aroha for all people and all things. Sir Paul possessed an acute sense of the world. Moe mai ra e te rangatira.

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On a brighter note, the Maori Party have dropped Solomon Tipene and selected Waihoroi Shortland as the Maori Party candidate for Te Tai Tokerau. Selecting Waihoroi signals that the party is taking a strategic approach to politics. Waihoroi is not going to win, bar some catastrophe, but he will erode Hone’s vote. Whether Waihoroi erodes it enough to hand Kelvin a win is unlikely, but plausible to an optimistic mind. The tide is going out on the Maori Party and rising on the Mana Party, if the Maori Party want to stem the flow then they need to eliminate Mana. They know this, Mana knows this and it is obvious to anyone that takes a cursory interest in politics.

Where Solomon Tipene was inarticulate and hesitant, Waihoroi is eloquent and assured (in both Maori and English may I add). He retains some youthful vigour, but also comes across as a wise Kaumatua. On personal characteristics Waihoroi is hard to beat. However, what he possesses in charisma he lacks in campaign experience, campaign support and political nous. The Maori Party remains broken in TTT, the leadership is tied down with the business of government and the party’s brains have left the building. The Maori Party is a shadow of its former self. Waihoroi can’t campaign alone, but should the Maori Party continue their current trajectory he, for all intents and purposes, will be.

Labour will be the passive beneficiaries of the battle between Maori and Mana in most other electorates, but not in TTT. Hone will eat Waihoroi and Kelvin for breakfast and then, if I may be so crude, shit them out the next day. Mana is a flaxroots movement with mass ground support and support from a number of brilliant political minds who shall remain nameless. So long as Mana remains the “movement of the people” Hone will remain untouchable and the other Maori electorates will fall to Mana in time.

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A Ministerial Inquiry has been launched into the use of foreign fishing vessels in New Zealand waters. I will not pretend to fully understand the issues at stake – I have been incredibly slack when it comes to following this story – suffice to say I welcome the inquiry and so should Maori. The allegations of poor conditions (and I believe the term “slave labour” has been used) on vessels fishing under Maori quotas is worrying. I look forward to the day that Iwi have the capital to invest in their own ships and, consequently, employ New Zealanders onboard.

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Excellent news for my Iwi Ngati Awa: 

Ngāti Awa is looking towards September 17, 2011 with great anticipation as we prepare for what is certain to be among the most significant days in the modern history of the iwi.

After a wait of over 130 years, the treasured Mātaatua Wharenui will stand once again as a powerful symbol of the resilient strength, pride and unity of Ngāti Awa. The house will take centre stage on the new Te Mānuka Tūtahi Marae.

One of the carvings in the Wharenui is of my tipuna, Te Rangikawehea, naturally I am excited to see it. 

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I thought it would be interesting to post this photo of Rino Tirikatene’s campaign van. Give him a toot if you see him around or stop for a korero. 

Rino Tirikatene's campaign van

Katene and Tirikatene, the 3 R's and Iwi

A few issues have caught my eye over the past week:

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Rahui Katene has opened the battle in Te Tai Tonga attacking Labour over their choice of candidate, Rino Tirikatene. Apparently, Rino Tirikatene comes from the same Hapu and this is, according to Rahui Katene, unfair. I fail to see things from her point of view. Rahui cannot attack Rino on his substantive record, given he is new to parliamentary politics, but if she doesn’t find a more potent attack line she will not run into much success. Rahui also claims:

However she is demanding evidence to back up claims she stands to to lose her electorate.

Pundits are picking she will lose her Te Tai Tonga seat to Labour at this year's election.

Ms Katene wants to know where they're getting their information from as there haven't been any polls conducted in her electorate.

"The only poll that I'm aware of is the one that we're doing our ourselves and that is showing a far different story," she told Newstalk ZB. "It is showing that I am well ahead of any other opponent."

Readers will know I am picking Rino Tirikatene to snatch Te Tai Tonga. The Maori Party’s polling may indicate that Rahui is ahead, but as we move closer to the election I expect the gap, if it even exists, to close and Rino Tirikatene to open up a ten point lead. Rahui will lose a significant amount of support as a reflex action against her support for the MCA act, GST and, generally speaking, refusing to take a principled position on issues like the ETS. Rahui Katene is also the invisible Maori Party MP. Turia and Sharples are the leaders, Flavell is the workhorse and Hone was the outspoken activist. Rahui was always on the fringes and, in my opinion, has nothing of substance to stand on. Having said that, Rahui may have solidified her support in Christchurch. By all accounts Rahui has provided excellent support to her constituents. However, Wellington, Dunedin and Invercargill remain marginal. Invercargill and Dunedin are working class strongholds while Wellington may swing towards Labour in the wake of public sector cuts and strained relations between tangata whenua and the Wellington City Council. I should elaborate on the local council point. Although relations between WCC and local iwi bear no relation to central government, relations between iwi and any form of government influence the mood of the people. At the moment the mood, in Wellington at least, is anti-government. 

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Hone Harawira continues his simplicity tone: 

Mana leader Hone Harawira is calling for a return to the three Rs.

 

A report from the New Zealand Institute has identified under-investment in training for jobs and careers and failure to engage children at school as being behind high levels of youth and Maori unemployment.

But Mr Harawira says academics and administrators have been experimenting with kid’s lives for too long, and he wants to see more emphasis on reading, writing and arithmetic. 

First of all, the New Zealand Institute is a right-wing think-tank. Secondly, Harawira may be making things a little too simple. I have no issue with “the three R’s” as the basis of children’s education, but I do take issue with Hone’s attack on “stuff about teaching people to think”. There is nothing more important than equipping young people with the skills they need to use their minds. The three R’s, much like the Cambridge system, merely encourages rote learning and the use of mundane processes. The strength of the New Zealand education system, as it exists at the moment, is that young people are taught the skills they need to problem solve, think creatively and, generally speaking, use their minds. The strength of systems like NCEA is that students are encouraged to think as opposed to recall. 

Hone sounds like the Nat’s when he calls for a return to the old ways. However, the old ways may be outdated. In an increasingly diverse world a strong focus on reading writing and arithmetic may no longer be necessary. Sure, everyone needs to know how to do the basics, but everyone also needs to know how to use the basics. It is not enough to merely ‘know’ something. I will be disappointed if the three R’s forms the basis of Te Mana’s thinking in education. 

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Parekura Horomia has made a good call: 

Labour's Maori affairs spokesperson says it's time for iwi to think about the economic condition of their members, rather than concentrate on building up the tribal putea. 

Parekura Horomia says ordinary Maori families are going through tough times, with bills mounting up, their jobs under threat and the services they rely on under threat from National's privatisation agenda.

 

He says iwi should start using the economic muscle they have built up.

Agreed. Some Iwi, Tainui and Ngai Tahu in particular, are in a position to begin distributing benefits to their members and, more importantly, offering opportunities for their members to improve their conditions. This could include offering interest free loans to small businesses and first time home buyers, developing community housing in partnership with the government and offering their members first preference for employment in, for example, Iwi tourism ventures.

Of course responsibility should not be devolved to Iwi, it is still the role of the State to improve the conditions of its people, but Iwi have a role to play in partnership with the government.

A few interesting fb pages

I was trawling through Facebook today, as you do, and I came across a few pages that might interest readers.

The first is Rino Tirikatene’s campaign page. Tirikatene is the Labour candidate for Te Tai Tonga and is, as far as I know, the only Maori candidate running such a page. Status updates come fairly frequently, there are quite a few photos and all of the basic background information is there. You can check it out here.

The second is tangatawhenua.com’s page (TW.com is the leading Maori news website). Their page is frequently updated with news stories, information on important events and hui and all manner of other things affecting Maori. Other facebook users also post some interesting things on the wall.

The Maori in Oz.com page is also worth a read. The page is updated fairly frequently with some interesting stuff.

The last is the Launch of the Mana Party page. So far 43 people are attending. The page sets out the day’s agenda and Hone kindly links to google maps for people wanting directions.

If you can think of any others link to them in the comments section.   

The Maori Party investigates a death sentence

Pem Bird, the Maori Party President, has announced that the party is investigating whether or not Hone Harawira has breached the non-aggression pact. Admittedly Hone has not held back when dealing with the Maori Party. However, Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia have, at times, responded in kind.

Apparently the party will appoint an official to investigate the matter. What a waste of time and resources. All the ‘official’ will be doing is examining semantics and then issuing a predetermined conclusion. The party should be expending energy on parliamentary business, electorate business and the upcoming campaign. You do not need an ‘official’ to determine whether or not Hone has said nasty things. The answer to that is self evident.

If it is found that Hone has breached the agreement Te Tai Tokerau becomes fair game. While for Hone the other Maori electorates become fair game. This would play right into Hone’s hands. No one will come within arms reach of Hone in the north. However, if Hone were to stand candidates in the other Maori electorates he would either win them or push them into Labour’s hands.

On current polling a Harawira candidate in Tamaki Makaurau would do enough to push the seat towards Shane Jones. Take Willie Jackson for instance. Jackson would play to soft and hard left voters, as well as women, the same pool of voters Pita Shraples plays to. Whereas Shane plays to the centre and to the right. The centre right, in terms of Maori, is overshadowed by the left. However, with the left vote split Shane will charge up the middle and secure the seat.

In Hauraki-Waikato a Harawira candidate would, again, cannibalise the Maori Party vote. Angeline Greensill is, by my reckoning, a fairly staunch tino rangatiratanga advocate. Any Harawira candidate will, in all likelihood, share a similar outlook. Again, the Maori Party candidate and the Harawira candidate would be playing to the same base. Therefore, the vote opens up and the Labour candidate runs up the middle and, in the case of Hauraki-Waikato, with an increased majority.

Waiariki is perhaps the most interesting. It would be a three way battle between Te Ururoa Flavell, Annette Sykes and Louis Te Kani. As I have said, I tend to think Annette would secure the seat in this scenario. Annette’s rhetoric is hard and uncompromising and she works within a different ideological framework. Louis Te Kani is very much focussed on economic gowth for Maori and getting out of the so called grievance mode. It is hard to say where Te Ururoa stands anymore, but I think it is most accurate to say he stands in the centre right camp. Whereas Annette Sykes is hard left and an aggressive tino rangatiratanga advocate. Te Kani and Flavell are fighting for the centre right vote and Annette will monopolise the left vote and the tino rangatiratanga vote (of which there is no shortage). The seat would fall her way.

Ikaroa-Rawhiti would go Labour’s way. Parekura Horomia enjoys a strong personal, as opposed to ideological, following. This is not the sort of following that can be easily broken. Neither the Maori Party candidate nor a Harawira candidate can break that following without a gigantic slip up on Parekura’s part. Parekura is the epitome of a grassroots campaigner. He attends every rugby and netball match, every significant birthday, every Marae event, you name and he’s there. This sort of personal connection with the voters is not easily broken with talk of policy, aspirations and political speak.

In my opinion the same is true of Tariana Turia in Te Tai Hauauru. She benefits from an enormous amount of respect among the people. Notwithstanding events of recent times, she has worked hard as an electorate MP and her stance over the Foreshore and Seabed Act 2004 was commendable. In the end her personal following will be enough to see her through. I am unsure how strong the Labour candidate Soraya Peke-Mason is. I do not know if Harawira has anyone willing to stand in Te Hauauru either.

Te Tai Tonga is the most marginal Maori seat and would go Labour’s way. Southern Maori are not, as far as I know, that keen of the harsh tino rangatiratanga that Hone and some of his supporters espouse. I have always considered southern Maori more conservative than Maori in the north. Not in a traditional left right sense, rather when it comes to Maori nationalist matters. Given this it seems plausible that Hone would struggle to find a candidate willing to stand. I cannot think of any likely contenders from the top of my head. Even in the event of a three way race I think Rino Tirikatene is poised to lock in the seat. Merely as a reflex against Rahui Katene’s support for the MCA act, the GST rise, the ETS and so on.

If my theories were to play out the Maori Party would be left with one seat (Te Tai Hauauru), Hone Harawira would gain two (Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki) and Labour would snatch three (Hauraki-Waikato, Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Te Tai Tonga). This would be a death sentence for the Maori Party and a lifeline for Hone Harawira and his new party (assuming he forms a new party). I do not want to see the Maori Party destroyed, but that is the price paid for thinking you are bigger than your constituents. The Maori Party has lost touch. It is also the way of minor parties tainted by government. If the Maori Party is to go the way of history, the question is who fills the vacuum? Hone Harawira or Labour…

Ratana revolt

Ratana Minister Kereama Pene has called for the church’s followers to abandon the Labour party. Only three Labour candidates have connections to the church - Soraya Peke-Mason, Rino Tirikatene and Louis Te Kani. None will be elected to Parliament on Labour’s current polling unless they win an electorate seat.

The Ratana church has always been politically active and Ratana members always vote. Labour’s historical monopoly on the Maori seats and the Maori party vote was in no small part due to Ratana support. The church is currently comprised of around 60,000 members. The Labour Party cannot afford to play fast and loose with such a significant electoral bloc. If Labour continues to ignore the church, i.e. take their support for granted, then the party will open the door for Hone Harawira. Hone is already poised to savage the Maori Party vote and if Labour continues to treat the Maori vote with casual disregard they can expect the same. Maori have genuine political alternatives in the Greens, Hone Harawira, the Maori Party and to a lesser extent New Zealand First. Labour cannot act like they still enjoy a monopoly over the Maori vote – the party has to work for it now.

Having said that, Ratana is not as strong as it once was. The church claims some 60,000 members. I tend to think this is an inflated claim. Ratana is certainly a significant electoral force, but only when they vote as a cohort. I do not believe the church votes as one anymore. The faith is no longer as strong and Maori, as a people, are generally more questioning of their leaders. The Ratana faithful will not take the words of their leaders as law and vote accordingly. They will, in most cases, vote as free thinking individuals.

To be honest Pene appears to be having a sook. And an unjustified one at that. Pene ignores the fact that Louisa Wall is currently a sitting MP and will almost certainly return next year. Rino Tirikatene will probably snatch Te Tai Tonga and Louis Te Kani has a chance in Waiariki. So that is one certain (Wall), one probable (Tirikatene) and one possible (Te Kani). Not bad if you ask me.  

h/t Imperator Fish

The hikoi arrives

I joined the hikoi today as it descended on Parliament. The mood was solemn - a sense of sadness pervaded the group. As the people marched through Wellington a strict silence was observed as a means of acknowledging the intense hurt successive governments have caused. It was incredibly moving both watching the hikoi and then joining it at Parliament. You could feel that the people walked with the wairua of their tupuna and this gave them strength.

The hikoi was, by my estimation, around 500-700 strong. Obviously this is well down on the hikoi of 2004. A respectable number anyhow. The group was, in terms of age, incredibly diverse. It was uplifting to see so many young people. The Greens also had a strong presence, as usual, and a number of sympathetic Pakeha marched with the hikoi. The only politician, or aspiring politician I should say, that joined the hikoi was Rino Tirikatene, Labour’s candidate for Te Tai Tonga.   

As the hikoi arrived we were welcomed onto Parliament grounds by the local iwi. Unsurprisingly there was a huge police presence at Parliament. I like to contrast the heavy police presence at Maori protests with the relatively light police presence at, for lack of a better term, mainstream protests. At one of the mining protests I attended last year there would have been around ten police officers. At today’s protest there were well over 40, including plain clothes police officers.

To my surprise a number of MP’s were there to meet the hikoi. Labour’s Maori team was there, a number of National MP’s including Chris Finlayson, the Greens were there of course. The Maori Party was also present, however they tended to hide behind the Nats. And, as you would expect, Hone met the hikoi as well.

The formalities then began. The old people spoke, and spoke brilliantly at that, and a number of items were ceremonially placed, including the text of the MCA bill, in a casket which was returned to Parliament. This was a symbol of Maori discontent. A number of taonga were also returned to Kaipara and Tamaki Makaurau iwi signalling their regret in supporting the Maori Party. Unfortunately the weather did not permit any speeches from the other side.

It really did sadden me to see the hikoi. Many of those participating were clearly destitute. A number had just walked away from their jobs to support the kaupapa. I heard of a story of a kaumatua who felt so strongly about restoring our mana whenua that he walked with the hikoi all the way from Te Rerenga Wairua to Wellington. By the time the hikoi arrived in Wellington his shoes had worn away to almost nothing. This brings me to a point I want to make. This hikoi was so small, in comparison to the 2004 hikoi that is, because people just could not afford to march. In the current economic environment our people cannot afford to drop everything and march on Parliament. Not anymore.

Hopefully something will come of this hikoi. Not necessarily a backdown on the MCA bill. But perhaps it may awaken Maori political consciousness. This hikoi should not have been for nothing.