Today’s post is the first in a series analysing each Maori
electorate. Over the next few weeks I’ll be exploring each electorate. I’ll
assess the candidates, gauge the voters, lay out the issues and, most
importantly, forecast the result. I thought about endorsing candidates, but
then I thought most of you probably don’t care and, for the ones that do care,
it’ll be fairly obvious where my preferences lay.
I’ll preface this post and say that each post in the series
will be horrendously long. Unless you’re a political junkie, you’re probably
going to find this series horrifically dry. But don’t let that stop you. I like
to think this series will be important and useful as far as Maori political
discourse goes.
As far as I know, no one has offered an in depth analysis of
any of the Maori electorates – ever. With that in mind, I thought I’d give it a
go. Commentary and analysis on the Maori electorates, and Maori politics in
general, is thin.
The Stats
Te Tai Tonga is the most under analysed electorate and the
most homogenous. Ngai Tahu exercises rangatiratanga (authority) over most of
the South Island alongside Waitahi, Ngati
Mamoe and a small number of other Iwi. Te Ati Awa exercise rangatiratanga over
the Wellington section of Te Tai Tonga as well
as parts of the upper South Island. Today,
Maori from the East Coast, for example Ngati Porou, are prominent in Wellington while Maori from the North Island, for example
Nga Puhi, are prominent in Christchurch.
Maori from other Iwi outnumber Te Ati Awa in Wellington. Ngai Tahu is the most populous
Iwi in the South.
The Maori population in Te Tai Tonga is overwhelmingly young,
59.8% of Maori are 29 or under. In comparison with other Maori electorates Te
Tai Tonga is, for want of a better term, more well off. For example,
13.3% of
Te Tai Tonga households earn over $100,000 while only
8.1% of households in
neighbouring Ikaroa-Rawhiti earn over $100,000. Te Tai Tonga is also,
relatively speaking, more educated than most other Maori electorates.
9.2% of
Maori in Te Tai Tonga hold a Bachelors Degree or higher compared with only
5.6%
of Maori in bordering Te Tai Hauaru.
In the
2008 election Rahui Katene won, rather easily, with a
majority of over 1000. Labour’s Mahara Okeroa was the second placed candidate
gaining almost 42% of the vote while the Green candidate polled at almost 11%.
In
2005 Okeroa secured 47% of the vote (in 2008 the situation reversed with
Katene winning 47%). The Maori Party candidate won 34% of the vote while the
Green candidate, Metiria Turei no less, gathered 12% of the vote.
In both the 2005 and 2008 election Labour cleaned up in the
party vote stakes with 57% of the vote in 2005 and 49% in 2008. The Maori
Party, Nats and Greens polled second, third and fourth respectively. The Maori
Party increased their share of the vote from 17% in 2005 to 22% in 2008.
National increased their vote from 7% to 11% while the Greens remained largely
static rising less than a percentage point from 2005 to 2008. In the
2002 election Okeroa annihilated his competitors and the Greens and New Zealand
First outpolled National.
The Candidates
Ok, hopefully you managed to make it through that. Political
forecasting, if you will, combines a number of factors including historical
trends, the contemporary situation and a little bit of intuition. To make an
informed judgement you need to lay out the facts. Hence the above.
Four candidates will contest Te Tai Tonga. The incumbent,
Rahui Katene of the Maori Party, Labour’s Rino Tirikatene, Clinton Dearlove of
the Mana Movement and Dora Langsbury from the Greens.
Rahui has held the seat since 2008. Rahui is a qualified
lawyer and a former policy analyst and nurse. She is a member of a number of
select committees and connects to Iwi across the entire South
Island.
Rino Tirikatene is, for want of a better description, a
political pedigree. His Koro, Eruera Tirikatene, held the Southern Maori seat
(aka Te Tai Tonga) for a number of years as did his Aunty Whetu
Tirikatene-Sullivan. Rino has worked for top law firm Simpson Grierson as well
as Maori development organisations for 12 years. Rino
stood for Te Tai Tonga Te Puku O Te Whenua in 1996:
“This is not my first
time representing the Labour Party. At the tender age of 23 my father passed
away, he was to stand for Labour in the Southern Maori seat. I took up his
mantel in 1996 and carried on his journey”.
Clinton Dearlove is, in Wellington political circles at least, an
unknown quantity. I had never heard of him nor had anyone I’d spoken to. Dearlove
affiliates to Waitaha and Nga Puhi (the second most populous Iwi in the South).
Dearlove holds an honours degree in Science from the University of Otago
(very few Maori hold any sort of science qualification) and his primary
interest appears to be education (he is a secondary school teacher of 10
years).
Dora Langsbury stood for the Greens at the last election.
Langsbury is of Ngai Tahu, Waitaha and Ngati Mamoe descent and works for Te
Wananga o Aotearoa. According to the Greens website Langsbury policy
interests are:
Areas of interest include Maori Affairs, Treaty of Waitangi, Seabed and Foreshore, Iwi settlement process, sustainable housing and transport, buy local, water management, education, mental health, public health, humane standard of living, disability affairs
The Analysis
Readers will know I’m picking Rino Tirikatene to snatch the
seat.
Rahui Katene is the invisible Maori Party MP. Sharples and
Turia are the leaders, Flavell is the workhorse and Hone was the principled
voice (or the big mouth). Rahui, however, was not known for much beyond being
Turia’s lapdog. She breathlessly followed her leaders despite pressure from
within, read from Hone and his supporters, and pressure from without, read from
Maori generally (think the foreshore and seabed hikoi etc).
The vote in the Maori electorates is a personality vote.
Most Maori don’t vote along party lines. However, Rahui is one of the few Maori
MP’s to ride off of the success of her party. In 2008 the Maori Party had built
enough momentum to launch an assault on Te Tai Tonga without having to stand a
moneyed or widely known candidate. The party’s credibility peaked in 2008 and
so to did their support among voters and their support from politically
minded Maori (i.e. campaigners etc).
Another factor that played into Rahui’s hands was Mahara
Okeroa’s age and perceived uselessness (or actual uselessness is how I see it). Maori snubbed Labour in 2008 - their share of the party vote dropped and only two Labour MP's managed to hold their seats.
Having said all of that, one factor will benefit Rahui’s
chances – the Christchurch
earthquake. Rahui has received, and rightly so, kudos for her work in Christchurch. From day
one Rahui has moved across the city lending a hand or a sympathetic ear to her
constituents. As the MP for Te Tai Tonga this is her job and she has, by all
accounts, performed it with distinction.
However, Christchurch
is not where the electorate will be won. Support in the South
Island is, for the most part, evenly split between the Maori Party
and Labour. Labour cleaned up the candidate vote in Bluff and the party holds
an acceptable lead in Invercargill and Timaru. It is fairly even in Dunedin and Christchurch
with the Maori Party enjoying the most slender of leads.
Wellington
is where the electorate will be won. Rahui thrashed Mahara Okeroa across Wellington. From Rongotai
to Petone to Wellington
Central Rahui cleaned up. So, assuming Rino Tirikatene holds Mahara Okeroa’s
support in the South, Wellington will become
the key battle ground.
My money is on Rino Tirikatene to win in the South and peel
back Rahui’s lead in Wellington.
Petone and Rongotai, and most other Wellington
suburbs, are traditional Labour strongholds and will follow a strong Labour
candidate. Wellington Central Maori, many of whom are public servants, will also
punish the Maori Party for their alliance with the public service bashing
National Party. Then again, the only Maori I know who ever voted or vote
National are public servants. I still can’t figure out why this is, but that’s
for another post.
Tirikatene has run a clean campaign across the entire
electorate. Nothing flashy, nothing nasty, just an old fashioned campaign
focussing on the issues and exploring the solutions. Rino will benefit from a
reflex backlash against the Maori Party and, according to the latest Marae
digipoll, he already enjoys a healthy lead. However, as a qualification I must
add that I do not place too much faith in the results of that poll and will
tell you why in my next post.
Ultimately I think the vote will follow whoever is perceived
to be the strongest and most effective candidate. In my mind, and from what I have
ascertained from living in Te Tai Tonga, the strongest candidate is Rino Tirikatene. Rino
comes from an illustrious line of Maori politicians and demonstrated out in the
traps that he is the smartest and most promising candidate. His experience in
the corporate world and in Maori development roles gives him the experience he
needs to cut in the throat slitting world of Parliament and the challenging
world that is contemporary Maoridom.
Rahui is perceived as nice, but weak. She followed her
leaders like a puppy, despite numerous protestations from her constituents (especially
Ngai Tahu re the MCA Act).
I doubt the Mana candidate, Clinton Dearlove, win a significant amount of votes, but he will, despite this, make an impact. Only a well known and moneyed
candidate could gain a large number of votes this late in the game. Clinton Dearlove
is largely unknown and Mana is perhaps weakest in the South so he cannot fall
back on the party branches in the South. Mana is, however, strong in Wellington. I tend to
think Dearlove (cool name eh) will steal more than a few votes from Rahui in Wellington and, thus, hand the city to Rino and,
consequently, the electorate (as I said the winner must win Wellington). The natural transition for
disgruntled Maori Party voters is to Mana. Mana also enjoys a strong set up in Wellington so despite
Dearlove’s low profile he can rely on strong party support to push his name and
message in the city. Given the makeup of Te Tai Tonga (i.e. the young age
profile of the electorate) Dearlove is likely to pick up a few votes in the
South thus handing Rino a slight advantage in the South too. Dearlove is also
of Nga Puhi descent and Nga Puhi is the second most populous Iwi in the South.
Having whakapapa to the most populous Iwi will work in Dearlove’s favour.
I haven’t heard anything from the Green candidate and as a
result I doubt she will impact the race in a big way. The Greens are focussing
on the party vote – not the candidate vote.
Conculsion
The key battleground is Wellington. As I said, the Mana candidate
will snatch enough votes from Rahui in Wellington
to allow Rino to charge up the middle and win the city and the electorate. Rahui
has not done enough in the past term nor enough in the last few months to fend
off the strong challenge Labour is mounting.
Should the Maori Party lose Te Tai Tonga the National Party
has reason to worry. Given the pathetic state of the Act Party and the
unprecedented possibility of the governing party obtaining an outright
majority, a strong Maori Party increases the chances of a second term National
Government.
The next post in this series will examine the other marginal
electorate – Waiariki. The next post will examine Te Tai Tokerau in the wake of
the results from the Marae Digipoll. At this point I’m unsure whether or not I will
have time to finish this series and examine the other electorates. Exams are
approaching for me. Hopefully I can find the time.
