Katene shoots herself in the foot

Well, it turns out Rahui Katene has been advertising herself as the MP for Te Tai Tonga on Facebook. 

Katene was claiming yesterday that people were still coming to her “for help”. Well, that’s no surprise when she’s advertising herself as the MP for Te Tai Tonga.

In any event, I find it almost impossible to believe that Christchurch residents are going to Rahui for help. After all, she’s based in Wellington – far removed from Christchurch. Christchurch residents would have to have access to Katene’s personal number, email or address. It’s not plausible that anyone outside of the Maori Party circles have those details. Therefore, it’s likely that Maori Party supporters or those connected with the party are still going to Rahui - if anyone is at all. 

I don’t want to make this story any bigger than it is, because that gives undeserved oxygen to Rahui Katene in her increasingly desperate bid to remain relevant.

 

Rahui Katene claiming to be the MP for Te Tai Tonga

Rahui Katene stirs the pot

RNZ’s Te Manu Korihi is leading with some interesting news:

Rino Tirikatene's political record of representing Maori in Christchurch is coming under attack from the woman he ousted from the Te Tai Tonga electorate last year.

Former Maori Party MP Rahui Katene says people affected by the earthquake are being ignored and constituents are still coming to her for help on issues such as roads, water and jobs.

She says that's a real problem because Labour Party MP Rino Tirikatene does not seem to be doing anything to help Maori he represents.

Ms Katene claims Mr Tirikatene is referring Maori constituents to the Pakeha MPs in Christchurch.

Rahui Katene is doing what she can to remain relevant and that involves stirring the pot. Rino has responded, quite rightly too, saying that many constituents have come to him citing the poor service Rahui gave last term. This, I think when examining the evidence, holds true. Rahui lost Christchurch despite having cultivated a significant profile in the wake of the earthquakes. If Rahui was doing a good job, then it follows that she would win more votes than Rino in Christchurch. This, however, was not the case and can only be read as an indictment against Rahui’s record in the city.

Rahui doesn’t have the coverage and connections Rino has across the electorate. Add to that the likelihood of Dora Langsbury and a Mana candidate standing and it becomes near impossible for Rahui to win – especially without the advantage of incumbency. Rahui can tend to her media profile, but that isn’t nearly enough to win a Maori electorate. Failure will be a deathblow against Rahui’s political career. You can’t, after all, lead the Maori Party without a seat in Parliament – it just isn’t practical.

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I have done some work for Rino in the past. 

Rahui Katene to stand in 2014 (updated)

As I think I predicted last year, former MP Rahui Katene has put her hand up to lead the Maori Party:

Former Maori Party MP Rahui Katene has indicated she wants to lead the party when the current co-leaders step down.

Ms Katene lost her southern Maori seat of Te Tai Tonga at the last election, but plans to stand again in 2014.

She says three years in Parliament was not long enough for her vision for Te Tai Tonga to be put into place.

The lawyer says she would stand again as an MP for the Maori Party - and be leader - if that is what the people want.

She says she is making herself available and she would love to advocate on voters' behalf.

Ms Katene says she would seek re-election in Te Tai Tonga because that is where she is from and where her iwi is.

First of all, let me declare my conflict of interest here. I’m doing a little bit of work for Rino Tirikatene, the current MP for Te Tai Tonga.

Anywho, Rahui will not win in 2014, bar an extraordinary and unforeseen event. Te Tai Tonga has never been, and probably never will be, a natural electorate for the Maori Party to target. Te Tai Tonga is far different in character from the other six Maori electorates, mainly in that tino rangatiratanga is not the dominant ideology among Maori in the electorate.

If Rahui is serious about winning back the seat, basing herself in Wellington is not the best decision. When Rahui won the seat in 2008, she did so off of the back of Wellington. With that in mind, she should be targeting areas in the south where she is weak and where voter support is soft. Christchurch is, arguably, the centre of the electorate and the prize, so naturally it should be her base.

Profile is important in any electorate, but that is one area where Rahui failed. She did not build a solid support base before and leading into election year, which meant her hold on Te Tai Tonga was always going to be tenuous. From a strategic point of view, Rahui failed to carry her support in Wellington – her stronghold in 2008 - and did not solidify the young vote (where she did well in 2008).  

If Rahui wants to win, Tariana Turia should anoint her as the successor in Te Tai Hauauru. However, even then, without tribal links to and knowledge of the electorate Rahui’s chances would be marginal. Tamaki Makaurau is an electorate where tribal links are not as important, so that could be a possibility. However, Rahui has no profile in the electorate.

Under the Maori Party constitution, there must be a male and female leader. At the moment, the leader in waiting is Te Ururoa Flavell – who isn’t guaranteed a win so long as Annette Sykes stands again. I think, come 2014, the Maori Party is finished. The narrative that the Maori Party are sell-outs is set and the party has failed to counter it. Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples are, perhaps, the only genuinely pan-Maori leaders in Parliament. Te Ururoa and Rahui don’t have the pan-Maori appeal of the current leaders. Unless the Maori Party defines a base, for example conservative Maori, the party will fail with Te Ururoa and Rahui who are not pan-Maori leaders.

Te Tai Tonga, Sharples and Brash, Tainui and asset sales

I don’t have much time to blog this week so I’ll quickly comment on a few things I’ve missed over the last few days:


Te Tai Tonga

The latest Te Karere Digipoll puts Rahui Katene ahead of Labour’s Rino Tirikatene. Katene is on 46% to Tirikatene’s 35%. The last Te Karere poll put Tirikatene on 41% to Katene’s 34%. Hurricane Clinton Dearlove registers 9% support while the Green’s Dora Langsbury comes in with 10% support. I think the following has happened: 1) Katene has, realising it’s do or die, reenergised her campaign and reclaimed the momentum 2) Dearlove and Langsbury have siphoned more votes from Tirikatene than they have from Katene 3) Tirikatene is suffering from a swing against Labour. The seat is now 50/50. Whereas everyone was picking a win for Tirikatene, this isn’t so sure anymore. 

A Tirikatene win is certainly still possible. As Digipoll points out, Tirikatene’s older support base is far more likely to vote and younger voters, who strongly support Katene, usually change sides at the last minute. Jobs and asset sales also rank as important issues. This is where Tirikatene will be strong. No one can forget Katene going against the wishes of iwi in Te Tai Tonga, notably Ngai Tahu, and voting for the MCA Act as well. Meanwhile Katene is calling for better resourcing for Maori electorates. The Maori electorates are huge and there is a need for access to more staffers and more expense funding. Apparently Katene could do with three staffers. I say try six. Maori electorate MPs are allowed three staffers and an EA so I don’t know why Katene is saying she could do with three when she’s allowed three.


Pita Sharples vs Brash

The Maori Party continue the line that they need to be at the Cabinet table to oppose Don Brash. Firstly, the Maori Party sit outside of Cabinet – so they’re not really at the Cabinet table. If Act enter a formal coalition with National, rather than a confidence and supply agreement, then Brash will sit at the table (in a figurative and literal sense) to the exclusion of the Maori Party (because what are the chances they will enter a formal coalition). This makes the whole at the table rhetoric a little hollow.


Tainui support the Maori Party on asset sales

In an about turn Tuku Morgan has come out in support of the Maori Party’s stance on asset sales. Previously Tuku actively supported the sale of assets and iwi acquisition of those assets. However, Tuku now opposes asset sales, but should assets come on the market Tuku will look to invest. Tuku reckons that the Maori Party is looking out for the needs of Maori. If this isn’t an endorsement, then I don’t know what is. 

This is a blow for John Key. The Iwi Leadership Group were, at one point, one of the strongest advocates for asset sales. John Key is quickly losing his allies on this issue. Without Iwi support and the active opposition of Mana and the Maori Party the Nats won't be able to sell the idea to Maori. Not that they need Maori support.

Martin Cooper controversy

By all accounts Martin Cooper is a good guy and has done a lot for the community. Fair enough. He still abused his position and should suffer the consequences though. The Herald on Sunday followed up on their story from the week before this time revealing Cooper wanted to give some guy the bash or something.


Tamaki Makaurau debate

Four strong candidates. I like picking winners, unlike Joshua Hitchcock who has blogged a brilliant summary here, but I genuinely can’t pick one. Each candidate was strong in certain areas. No candidate did them or their parties a disservice let’s put it that way.

Te Karere Digipoll: Te Tai Tonga

Te Karere will be releasing some surprising poll results on Te Tai Tonga today. Tune into TV One at 4pm. On a separate note I don't imagine I'll have much time to blog this week so things will probably be a little quiet.  

Native Affairs Kowhiri 11: Te Tai Tonga

New Zealand politics is devoid of genuine charisma. Kiwi politicians have that matey sort of charm or a very casual allure, but nothing in the way of real magnetism, read charisma. Enter Clinton Dearlove. “Hurricane Dearlove” (as he is known now) came storming out of left field in last nights Te Tai Tonga election debate. This from the NZ Herald:

Maori Party MP Rahui Katene started strong but was soon paddling against the tide, and finished the Te Tai Tonga debate looking frazzled and beaten.

Meanwhile Mana candidate Clinton Dearlove was full of beginner nerves, but soon found his feet to deliver a message with emphatic authority, along with an Obama-esque smile.

There is now a palpable sense among Mana supporters that Dearlove can steal the seat. On the basis of his performance last night this is a reasonable expectation, but I doubt it. Instead, I think Dearlove has done enough to snatch a significant number of votes from Rahui Katene and push the seat towards Rino Tirikatene. Rino was, in my opinion, going to win whether Clinton did well or not. I always thought there were enough tribal Labour voters coupled with a large enough reflex backlash against the Maori Party (for supporting, among other things, the MCA Act and the tax switch) to hand the seat to Rino. And, perhaps, Rino is best placed to represent Te Tai Tonga. Rino made the point that Labour, as one of the major parties, is best placed to achieve change for Maori. This is, for the most part, true. Labour will always sanction or lead change for Maori. The minor parties, Mana, Maori and the Greens, will always be subordinate to either National or Labour. Having said that, this doesn’t mean minor parties are irrelevant. The minor parties play a fundamental role in introducing Maori issues onto the agenda and pushing change. However, going back to the main point, Labour, or sometimes National, will always sanction or lead change.

As I said last night every candidate communicated their message well. I think Rino and Rahui were quite nervous, but this is to be expected, after all, all the pressure was on those two. Dora Langsbury and Clinton Dearlove were not weighed down under the pressure of expectation. They had nothing to lose and nothing to prove whereas last night was probably in Rahui and Rinos minds make or break.

Rahui performed well choosing to follow her leaders lines and focus on what the Maori Party has achieved – even though some of her claims were erroneous. Rino was weighed down by expectation, but outperformed everyone on the economy. He had his soundbites at the ready and delivered them with finesse. I was impressed with the pace of his delivery. He adjusted his tone in response to the audience mood as well. Dora Langsbury did well on policy. The Greens are always strong on policy so it is no surprise Dora performed well here. Clinton did well on all fronts. He delivered his message powerfully. He was animated, he concentrated on the message and was not too mindful of the medium (i.e. the cameras), the tone was conversational and the pitch was perfect.

I’m hesitant to name a winner. I think they all performed well in certain areas. In my opinion the debate is going to break Rahui and reward Clinton and, as a result, Rino. Clinton will seep enough votes from Rahui in Wellington, where Mana is strongest in Te Tai Tonga, to award the seat to Rino.

Te Tai Tonga - the lowdown

Today’s post is the first in a series analysing each Maori electorate. Over the next few weeks I’ll be exploring each electorate. I’ll assess the candidates, gauge the voters, lay out the issues and, most importantly, forecast the result. I thought about endorsing candidates, but then I thought most of you probably don’t care and, for the ones that do care, it’ll be fairly obvious where my preferences lay.   

I’ll preface this post and say that each post in the series will be horrendously long. Unless you’re a political junkie, you’re probably going to find this series horrifically dry. But don’t let that stop you. I like to think this series will be important and useful as far as Maori political discourse goes.

As far as I know, no one has offered an in depth analysis of any of the Maori electorates – ever. With that in mind, I thought I’d give it a go. Commentary and analysis on the Maori electorates, and Maori politics in general, is thin.

The Stats

Te Tai Tonga is the most under analysed electorate and the most homogenous. Ngai Tahu exercises rangatiratanga (authority) over most of the South Island alongside Waitahi, Ngati Mamoe and a small number of other Iwi. Te Ati Awa exercise rangatiratanga over the Wellington section of Te Tai Tonga as well as parts of the upper South Island. Today, Maori from the East Coast, for example Ngati Porou, are prominent in Wellington while Maori from the North Island, for example Nga Puhi, are prominent in Christchurch. Maori from other Iwi outnumber Te Ati Awa in Wellington. Ngai Tahu is the most populous Iwi in the South.

The Maori population in Te Tai Tonga is overwhelmingly young, 59.8% of Maori are 29 or under. In comparison with other Maori electorates Te Tai Tonga is, for want of a better term, more well off. For example, 13.3% of Te Tai Tonga households earn over $100,000 while only 8.1% of households in neighbouring Ikaroa-Rawhiti earn over $100,000. Te Tai Tonga is also, relatively speaking, more educated than most other Maori electorates. 9.2% of Maori in Te Tai Tonga hold a Bachelors Degree or higher compared with only 5.6% of Maori in bordering Te Tai Hauaru.

In the 2008 election Rahui Katene won, rather easily, with a majority of over 1000. Labour’s Mahara Okeroa was the second placed candidate gaining almost 42% of the vote while the Green candidate polled at almost 11%. In 2005 Okeroa secured 47% of the vote (in 2008 the situation reversed with Katene winning 47%). The Maori Party candidate won 34% of the vote while the Green candidate, Metiria Turei no less, gathered 12% of the vote.

In both the 2005 and 2008 election Labour cleaned up in the party vote stakes with 57% of the vote in 2005 and 49% in 2008. The Maori Party, Nats and Greens polled second, third and fourth respectively. The Maori Party increased their share of the vote from 17% in 2005 to 22% in 2008. National increased their vote from 7% to 11% while the Greens remained largely static rising less than a percentage point from 2005 to 2008. In the 2002 election Okeroa annihilated his competitors and the Greens and New Zealand First outpolled National.

The Candidates

Ok, hopefully you managed to make it through that. Political forecasting, if you will, combines a number of factors including historical trends, the contemporary situation and a little bit of intuition. To make an informed judgement you need to lay out the facts. Hence the above.

Four candidates will contest Te Tai Tonga. The incumbent, Rahui Katene of the Maori Party, Labour’s Rino Tirikatene, Clinton Dearlove of the Mana Movement and Dora Langsbury from the Greens.

Rahui has held the seat since 2008. Rahui is a qualified lawyer and a former policy analyst and nurse. She is a member of a number of select committees and connects to Iwi across the entire South Island.

Rino Tirikatene is, for want of a better description, a political pedigree. His Koro, Eruera Tirikatene, held the Southern Maori seat (aka Te Tai Tonga) for a number of years as did his Aunty Whetu Tirikatene-Sullivan. Rino has worked for top law firm Simpson Grierson as well as Maori development organisations for 12 years. Rino stood for Te Tai Tonga Te Puku O Te Whenua in 1996:

“This is not my first time representing the Labour Party. At the tender age of 23 my father passed away, he was to stand for Labour in the Southern Maori seat. I took up his mantel in 1996 and carried on his journey”.

Clinton Dearlove is, in Wellington political circles at least, an unknown quantity. I had never heard of him nor had anyone I’d spoken to. Dearlove affiliates to Waitaha and Nga Puhi (the second most populous Iwi in the South). Dearlove holds an honours degree in Science from the University of Otago (very few Maori hold any sort of science qualification) and his primary interest appears to be education (he is a secondary school teacher of 10 years).

Dora Langsbury stood for the Greens at the last election. Langsbury is of Ngai Tahu, Waitaha and Ngati Mamoe descent and works for Te Wananga o Aotearoa. According to the Greens website Langsbury policy interests are:

Areas of interest include Maori Affairs, Treaty of Waitangi, Seabed and Foreshore, Iwi settlement process, sustainable housing and transport, buy local, water management, education, mental health, public health, humane standard of living, disability affairs

The Analysis

Readers will know I’m picking Rino Tirikatene to snatch the seat.

Rahui Katene is the invisible Maori Party MP. Sharples and Turia are the leaders, Flavell is the workhorse and Hone was the principled voice (or the big mouth). Rahui, however, was not known for much beyond being Turia’s lapdog. She breathlessly followed her leaders despite pressure from within, read from Hone and his supporters, and pressure from without, read from Maori generally (think the foreshore and seabed hikoi etc).

The vote in the Maori electorates is a personality vote. Most Maori don’t vote along party lines. However, Rahui is one of the few Maori MP’s to ride off of the success of her party. In 2008 the Maori Party had built enough momentum to launch an assault on Te Tai Tonga without having to stand a moneyed or widely known candidate. The party’s credibility peaked in 2008 and so to did their support among voters and their support from politically minded Maori (i.e. campaigners etc).

Another factor that played into Rahui’s hands was Mahara Okeroa’s age and perceived uselessness (or actual uselessness is how I see it). Maori snubbed Labour in 2008 - their share of the party vote dropped and only two Labour MP's managed to hold their seats. 

Having said all of that, one factor will benefit Rahui’s chances – the Christchurch earthquake. Rahui has received, and rightly so, kudos for her work in Christchurch. From day one Rahui has moved across the city lending a hand or a sympathetic ear to her constituents. As the MP for Te Tai Tonga this is her job and she has, by all accounts, performed it with distinction.

However, Christchurch is not where the electorate will be won. Support in the South Island is, for the most part, evenly split between the Maori Party and Labour. Labour cleaned up the candidate vote in Bluff and the party holds an acceptable lead in Invercargill and Timaru. It is fairly even in Dunedin and Christchurch with the Maori Party enjoying the most slender of leads. 

(here is the link to the booth by booth breakdown of the electorate)

Wellington is where the electorate will be won. Rahui thrashed Mahara Okeroa across Wellington. From Rongotai to Petone to Wellington Central Rahui cleaned up. So, assuming Rino Tirikatene holds Mahara Okeroa’s support in the South, Wellington will become the key battle ground.

My money is on Rino Tirikatene to win in the South and peel back Rahui’s lead in Wellington. Petone and Rongotai, and most other Wellington suburbs, are traditional Labour strongholds and will follow a strong Labour candidate. Wellington Central Maori, many of whom are public servants, will also punish the Maori Party for their alliance with the public service bashing National Party. Then again, the only Maori I know who ever voted or vote National are public servants. I still can’t figure out why this is, but that’s for another post.

Tirikatene has run a clean campaign across the entire electorate. Nothing flashy, nothing nasty, just an old fashioned campaign focussing on the issues and exploring the solutions. Rino will benefit from a reflex backlash against the Maori Party and, according to the latest Marae digipoll, he already enjoys a healthy lead. However, as a qualification I must add that I do not place too much faith in the results of that poll and will tell you why in my next post.

Ultimately I think the vote will follow whoever is perceived to be the strongest and most effective candidate. In my mind, and from what I have ascertained from living in Te Tai Tonga, the strongest candidate is Rino Tirikatene. Rino comes from an illustrious line of Maori politicians and demonstrated out in the traps that he is the smartest and most promising candidate. His experience in the corporate world and in Maori development roles gives him the experience he needs to cut in the throat slitting world of Parliament and the challenging world that is contemporary Maoridom.

Rahui is perceived as nice, but weak. She followed her leaders like a puppy, despite numerous protestations from her constituents (especially Ngai Tahu re the MCA Act).

I doubt the Mana candidate, Clinton Dearlove, win a significant amount of votes, but he will, despite this, make an impact. Only a well known and moneyed candidate could gain a large number of votes this late in the game. Clinton Dearlove is largely unknown and Mana is perhaps weakest in the South so he cannot fall back on the party branches in the South. Mana is, however, strong in Wellington. I tend to think Dearlove (cool name eh) will steal more than a few votes from Rahui in Wellington and, thus, hand the city to Rino and, consequently, the electorate (as I said the winner must win Wellington). The natural transition for disgruntled Maori Party voters is to Mana. Mana also enjoys a strong set up in Wellington so despite Dearlove’s low profile he can rely on strong party support to push his name and message in the city. Given the makeup of Te Tai Tonga (i.e. the young age profile of the electorate) Dearlove is likely to pick up a few votes in the South thus handing Rino a slight advantage in the South too. Dearlove is also of Nga Puhi descent and Nga Puhi is the second most populous Iwi in the South. Having whakapapa to the most populous Iwi will work in Dearlove’s favour.

I haven’t heard anything from the Green candidate and as a result I doubt she will impact the race in a big way. The Greens are focussing on the party vote – not the candidate vote.

Conculsion

The key battleground is Wellington. As I said, the Mana candidate will snatch enough votes from Rahui in Wellington to allow Rino to charge up the middle and win the city and the electorate. Rahui has not done enough in the past term nor enough in the last few months to fend off the strong challenge Labour is mounting.

Should the Maori Party lose Te Tai Tonga the National Party has reason to worry. Given the pathetic state of the Act Party and the unprecedented possibility of the governing party obtaining an outright majority, a strong Maori Party increases the chances of a second term National Government.

The next post in this series will examine the other marginal electorate – Waiariki. The next post will examine Te Tai Tokerau in the wake of the results from the Marae Digipoll. At this point I’m unsure whether or not I will have time to finish this series and examine the other electorates. Exams are approaching for me. Hopefully I can find the time.

Katene and Tirikatene, the 3 R's and Iwi

A few issues have caught my eye over the past week:

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Rahui Katene has opened the battle in Te Tai Tonga attacking Labour over their choice of candidate, Rino Tirikatene. Apparently, Rino Tirikatene comes from the same Hapu and this is, according to Rahui Katene, unfair. I fail to see things from her point of view. Rahui cannot attack Rino on his substantive record, given he is new to parliamentary politics, but if she doesn’t find a more potent attack line she will not run into much success. Rahui also claims:

However she is demanding evidence to back up claims she stands to to lose her electorate.

Pundits are picking she will lose her Te Tai Tonga seat to Labour at this year's election.

Ms Katene wants to know where they're getting their information from as there haven't been any polls conducted in her electorate.

"The only poll that I'm aware of is the one that we're doing our ourselves and that is showing a far different story," she told Newstalk ZB. "It is showing that I am well ahead of any other opponent."

Readers will know I am picking Rino Tirikatene to snatch Te Tai Tonga. The Maori Party’s polling may indicate that Rahui is ahead, but as we move closer to the election I expect the gap, if it even exists, to close and Rino Tirikatene to open up a ten point lead. Rahui will lose a significant amount of support as a reflex action against her support for the MCA act, GST and, generally speaking, refusing to take a principled position on issues like the ETS. Rahui Katene is also the invisible Maori Party MP. Turia and Sharples are the leaders, Flavell is the workhorse and Hone was the outspoken activist. Rahui was always on the fringes and, in my opinion, has nothing of substance to stand on. Having said that, Rahui may have solidified her support in Christchurch. By all accounts Rahui has provided excellent support to her constituents. However, Wellington, Dunedin and Invercargill remain marginal. Invercargill and Dunedin are working class strongholds while Wellington may swing towards Labour in the wake of public sector cuts and strained relations between tangata whenua and the Wellington City Council. I should elaborate on the local council point. Although relations between WCC and local iwi bear no relation to central government, relations between iwi and any form of government influence the mood of the people. At the moment the mood, in Wellington at least, is anti-government. 

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Hone Harawira continues his simplicity tone: 

Mana leader Hone Harawira is calling for a return to the three Rs.

 

A report from the New Zealand Institute has identified under-investment in training for jobs and careers and failure to engage children at school as being behind high levels of youth and Maori unemployment.

But Mr Harawira says academics and administrators have been experimenting with kid’s lives for too long, and he wants to see more emphasis on reading, writing and arithmetic. 

First of all, the New Zealand Institute is a right-wing think-tank. Secondly, Harawira may be making things a little too simple. I have no issue with “the three R’s” as the basis of children’s education, but I do take issue with Hone’s attack on “stuff about teaching people to think”. There is nothing more important than equipping young people with the skills they need to use their minds. The three R’s, much like the Cambridge system, merely encourages rote learning and the use of mundane processes. The strength of the New Zealand education system, as it exists at the moment, is that young people are taught the skills they need to problem solve, think creatively and, generally speaking, use their minds. The strength of systems like NCEA is that students are encouraged to think as opposed to recall. 

Hone sounds like the Nat’s when he calls for a return to the old ways. However, the old ways may be outdated. In an increasingly diverse world a strong focus on reading writing and arithmetic may no longer be necessary. Sure, everyone needs to know how to do the basics, but everyone also needs to know how to use the basics. It is not enough to merely ‘know’ something. I will be disappointed if the three R’s forms the basis of Te Mana’s thinking in education. 

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Parekura Horomia has made a good call: 

Labour's Maori affairs spokesperson says it's time for iwi to think about the economic condition of their members, rather than concentrate on building up the tribal putea. 

Parekura Horomia says ordinary Maori families are going through tough times, with bills mounting up, their jobs under threat and the services they rely on under threat from National's privatisation agenda.

 

He says iwi should start using the economic muscle they have built up.

Agreed. Some Iwi, Tainui and Ngai Tahu in particular, are in a position to begin distributing benefits to their members and, more importantly, offering opportunities for their members to improve their conditions. This could include offering interest free loans to small businesses and first time home buyers, developing community housing in partnership with the government and offering their members first preference for employment in, for example, Iwi tourism ventures.

Of course responsibility should not be devolved to Iwi, it is still the role of the State to improve the conditions of its people, but Iwi have a role to play in partnership with the government.

The hikoi arrives

I joined the hikoi today as it descended on Parliament. The mood was solemn - a sense of sadness pervaded the group. As the people marched through Wellington a strict silence was observed as a means of acknowledging the intense hurt successive governments have caused. It was incredibly moving both watching the hikoi and then joining it at Parliament. You could feel that the people walked with the wairua of their tupuna and this gave them strength.

The hikoi was, by my estimation, around 500-700 strong. Obviously this is well down on the hikoi of 2004. A respectable number anyhow. The group was, in terms of age, incredibly diverse. It was uplifting to see so many young people. The Greens also had a strong presence, as usual, and a number of sympathetic Pakeha marched with the hikoi. The only politician, or aspiring politician I should say, that joined the hikoi was Rino Tirikatene, Labour’s candidate for Te Tai Tonga.   

As the hikoi arrived we were welcomed onto Parliament grounds by the local iwi. Unsurprisingly there was a huge police presence at Parliament. I like to contrast the heavy police presence at Maori protests with the relatively light police presence at, for lack of a better term, mainstream protests. At one of the mining protests I attended last year there would have been around ten police officers. At today’s protest there were well over 40, including plain clothes police officers.

To my surprise a number of MP’s were there to meet the hikoi. Labour’s Maori team was there, a number of National MP’s including Chris Finlayson, the Greens were there of course. The Maori Party was also present, however they tended to hide behind the Nats. And, as you would expect, Hone met the hikoi as well.

The formalities then began. The old people spoke, and spoke brilliantly at that, and a number of items were ceremonially placed, including the text of the MCA bill, in a casket which was returned to Parliament. This was a symbol of Maori discontent. A number of taonga were also returned to Kaipara and Tamaki Makaurau iwi signalling their regret in supporting the Maori Party. Unfortunately the weather did not permit any speeches from the other side.

It really did sadden me to see the hikoi. Many of those participating were clearly destitute. A number had just walked away from their jobs to support the kaupapa. I heard of a story of a kaumatua who felt so strongly about restoring our mana whenua that he walked with the hikoi all the way from Te Rerenga Wairua to Wellington. By the time the hikoi arrived in Wellington his shoes had worn away to almost nothing. This brings me to a point I want to make. This hikoi was so small, in comparison to the 2004 hikoi that is, because people just could not afford to march. In the current economic environment our people cannot afford to drop everything and march on Parliament. Not anymore.

Hopefully something will come of this hikoi. Not necessarily a backdown on the MCA bill. But perhaps it may awaken Maori political consciousness. This hikoi should not have been for nothing.

Briefly: The earthquake and Maori Politics (updated)

It still seems a little crass to be discussing the political ramifications of the Chch earthquake but ultimately we cannot lose sight of something as significant as politics. In this post I want to briefly discuss the effect the earthquake will have on Maori politics, specifically Rahui Katene and the passage of the MCA bill.

For Maori politics the big question is will Rahui Katene retain her seat as a result of the earthquake. Up until now I have been predicting that Rahui will almost certainly lose her seat. But of course in light of recent events this is now uncertain. To win Te Tai Tonga you need to win Chch and Wellington. Wellington is still anyone’s game but Chch may now swing behind Rahui. From what I hear Rahui is doing a good job moving around the community reassuring and supporting Maori affected by the earthquake. By all accounts The Maori Party and Ngai Tahu leaders are also doing a good job setting up Marae to support displaced whanau. As Rahui moves around the Maori community the people get to see her human side. A compassionate and supportive politician. People do not see the Rahui who supports the MCA bill or the Rahui who voted for an increase in GST. They see someone who is forming a very strong and very personal relationship with them. People are responsive to politicians who act in a human capacity as opposed to a political capacity.

The Maori Party, and by extension Rahui, are, in a political sense, managing the situation very well. No showmanship, no criticism, just a quiet flaxroot effort. One could assume that I am saying the Maori Party and Rahui are using the situation for political gain. I am not. Ultimately they just want to help. But the way in which they are helping is politically beneficial.

Some commentators have suggested that the MCA bill may be put on hold or scrapped altogether. I think this is a little naïve. The Maori Party will not allow the MCA bill to fall off the legislative agenda. If universal opposition and the threat of a second hikoi are not enough to deter the party then an earthquake and the resulting political sensitivities probably won’t either. The country’s attention will be focussed almost exclusively on Chch for the next month at the least. The Nat’s would love the opportunity to slip the bill through while the public consciousness is directed towards bigger issues. The MCA bill was electorally damaging yet a political necessity, therefore the Nats will welcome the opportunity to placate their support partner and limit electoral damage in the process.

In conclusion the earthquake may mean Rahui Katene will retain Te Tai Tonga and the MCA bill will proceed. This means, in my opinion, that The Maori Party will come out of the election having retained all their seats (excluding Te Tai Tokerau of course).

*As an aside, I do not share the surprisingly common sentiment that the earthquake will ensure the government is re-elected, perhaps with a majority. My reading of the situation in the months following the initial quake was that many people in Chch were not satisfied with the government’s response. Why would they do any better this time around? Everything to come out of the government’s mouth has been uninspiring.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention the quake will damage the momentum Winston Peters is, well was, generating. I don’t think the country has the stomach for Winston at the moment. Even in the coming months the Nats can easily label Winnie a distraction and an impediment to progress in Chch. A man stuck moaning about yesterdays issues. Winston needs to refocus. The old issues of immigration, separatism and the like may lack the potency they once possessed. However, in the wake of the quake nationalism may prove to be a key issue. I can imagine calls for contracts to be awarded to local businesses as opposed to some cheap overseas corporate going down well. One thing is for sure, Winston’s chances of re-election have plummeted.    

C'mon Tariana

From Waatea News;

Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia says the party is prepared to live with any electoral fall-out from its wrangles with rebel Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira.

Political commentator Matt McCarten has suggested Mrs Turia and Mr Harawira may be the only two Maori Party MPs left standing after the election, as the row over whether the party is right to support the National government affects support in the wider Maori population.

Mrs Turia says the comments by the former Alliance president should be read in the context that he has been advising Mr Harawira behind the scenes.

“He has a bias and he is showing it. As far as we’re concerned, and we can only guage it by what the electorates are reporting back to us, it is true we will lose some members and it is also true we will gain some members,” she says.

Mrs Turia says the Maori Party leadership is not letting the complaint against Hone Harawira divert its attention from other important work needing to be done.

Firstly, I think Matt is wrong in this instance. Pita is fairly secure in Tamaki Makaurau while Te Ururoa Flavell, although less secure, will prove hard to dislodge. Shane Jones will struggle to pull back Pita's majority in the electorate. I have always thought Pita enjoys more of a personal rather than political following in the electorate, therefore The Maori Party’s political decisions will have a negligible effect on voter behaviour. On the other hand Te Ururoa does not enjoy a personal following rather an iwi following. Te Arawa will vote for their man while some other iwi within the Waiariki electorate, for example Tuhoe and Ngati Awa, casually endorse him. Mita Ririnui has signalled that he will stand down following the election, hopefully Labour stand a credible candidate with the connections and intellect required to really challenge Te Ururoa. Personally, I would like to see Annette Sykes stand (not for Labour though). I have already outlined in a previous post that I think Rino Tirakatene will snatch Te Tai Tonga. Rahui has failed to impress, although she does well as Tariana’s minion. I think Ngai Tahu endorsement is one of the keys to success in Te Tai Tonga. I do not know which way Ngai Tahu is leaning but given their opposition to the MCA bill one could assume favourable feeling towards The Maori Party is limited. I am curious to know what Marty Mars, who is more qualified to speak on Te Tai Tonga issues, thinks.

Secondly, Turia is correct, Matt has been advising Hone and for some I believe. Perhaps this gives credibility to the new left wing party rumours. More than likely it is just Matt offering help to a personal friend. Where Turia errs is in suggesting Matt’s column is spin. That is an overly cynical and politically charged suggestion that I do not even think Turia believes. Reading over the column even the most partisan supporter would admit the column is astute.  

Thirdly, expecting to gain members is wildly optimistic. The Maori Party’s brand is tarnished. The perception that the party is ‘selling-out’ is firmly rooted among Maori and non-Maori too. Reversing that perception will take many months. The word kupapa is often thrown about when discussing The Maori Party. Obviously, there is a depth of negative emotion surrounding the party – who would want to associate with such a party? The party is beginning to resemble electoral poison.

Lastly, Turia speaks of “other important work needing to be done”. Ahhh, and what work is that? Prison privatisation? Asset sales? Weakening work rights (90 day law)? Dumping huge costs on already struggling Maori families (ETS, ACC changes etc)?

Or were you referring to doing something about the Maori unemployment rate? The shocking Maori health statistics? Violence in the Maori community? Child poverty? Maori failing in the education system?

I wonder, but something tells me you had the first list in mind.