The cycles of Maori politics

I’m going to make the call: all things remaining the same, the incumbents in the Maori electorates will retain their seats. Here’s how it’s looking.

Te Tai Tokerau

Labour: Kelvin Davis

Mana: Hone Harawira

Tamaki Makaurau

Labour: Shane Taurima (probably)

Mana: tbc.

Maori Party: possible candidates include Bronwyn Yates, George Ngatai, Te Hira Paenga and Tūnuiarangi McLean. The selection hui is scheduled in May.

Hauraki-Waikato

Labour: Nanaia Mahuta

Waiariki

Labour: the candidates are Katie Paul, Ryan Te Wara and Rawiri Waititi.

Mana: tbc (at the AGM I believe between 11-13 April)

Maori Party: Te Ururoa Flavell

Te Tai Hauauru

Greens: Jack Tautokai McDonald

Labour: Adrian Rurawhe

Maori Party: Chris McKenzie

Ikaroa-Rawhiti

Labour: Meka Whaitiri

Mana: Te Hamua Nikora

Te Tai Tonga
 

Greens: Dora Langsbury
Labour: Rino Tirikatene

Labour has a clear run in Hauraki-Waikato and Te Tai Tonga. There are few - if any - viable challengers. Mana and the Maori Party have missed the window of opportunity and it seems that Tamaki will fall Labour's way while Ikaroa looks increasingly safe. Te Ururoa and Hone appear safe too. Te Tai Hauauru is the great uncertainty.

Labour, Mana and the Maori Party can't hope to run viable campaigns in the seats they haven't selected candidates in. The election is six months away and the window of opportunity has passed. At this point, any campaign against the incumbent is nominal. Maori politics is relationship based and its difficult to build a political relationship with the electorate with only six months on the clock. That's leaving aside the other, more practical issues, like campaign personnel and strategy.

But the bigger picture is important too: conflict characterised the last decade in Maori politics. Think of Closing the Gaps, Orewa and the Foreshore and Seabed Act. The cruel irony is that the Maori Party has resolved much of that conflict - Whanau Ora has replaced Closing the Gaps, National has abandoned its Maori bashing tactics and the Foreshore and Seabed Act has been repealed and replaced - yet Labour will be the beneficiary.

That's terribly unfair. But while stability returns to Maori politics, the Maori electorates appear to be reverting to type: Labour-led. Maori politics runs through cycles of uncertainty. When uncertainty and instability arises the Maori electorates turn against Labour. It almost happened with Matiu Rata while it actually happened in the 90s with New Zealand First and the 2000s with the Maori Party. The Young Maori Party was born amidst uncertainty and low confidence among Maori, but when certainty and confidence returned Labour and Ratana swept the Maori seats.

There was a window of opportunity when Mana and the Maori Party might have challenged that cycle. But I think that window has passed. The best they can hope to do is retain what they have.
 

The Green Party and Māori

The Greens have not traditionally been seen as a party of Māori aspiration, but instead as largely an urban Pākehā dominated party. There is a great deal of truth in this. But the history is more complicated than many realise. Support for the party among Māori has at times been high, and other times low. It has fluctuated with the stability and strength of the other parties.

Te Roopu Pounamu, the Māori members' network of the Green Party, was established in 2000 and grew in strength as a voice for Māori in the party. With the leadership of Metiria Turei, the network succeeded in amending the party’s charter to recognise and commit to the Māori text of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. This was a defining moment, because it has ensured that there is one mainstream party with significant support that is committed to stand up against historical and contemporary breaches of Te Tiriti. I don't think Labour will ever commit to the Te Reo Māori text, and we need to remind our selves of that more often.

The Greens polled very well in the Māori seats in 2002, with a Māori electorate party vote average of 10.5%, the year Metiria entered Parliament.

However, the political climate dramatically shifted with Don Brash’s Orewa speech, the Foreshore and Seabed Act 2004 and the establishment of an independent Māori political voice, the Māori Party. Many of our members and voters were inclined to support this independent Māori voice, and so our support took a hit in the 2005 elections, an election that saw the emergence of Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples as significant and influential political leaders, with a huge range of support among Māori voters. We lost an average of -7.3% party vote in the Māori electorates, and this was a strong contributing factor to our close proximity to the 5% threshold in that particular election.

The confidence and supply agreement between National and the Māori Party was the catalyst for another shift in the political climate. A steady stream of activists, members and supporters began dissociating themselves with the party and the Government it was supporting. This conflict came to a head with the departure of Hone Harawira from the Māori Party, which led to him forming the Mana Party.

However, Hone and Mana haven’t been the only beneficiaries of the Māori Party’s decline. The Greens also saw a rise in support, in part due to this political shift, but also because of the ascension of Metiria Turei to co-leader and her ever-growing profile in Māori communities. Metiria has become a champion for wāhine Māori and Māori whānau and is immensely popular; particularly among young, educated Māori. With the exception of Winston Peters, she is the only Māori leader of a mainstream political party.

The Greens support among Māori raised dramatically at the 2011 general election, a +6.3% party vote increase, largely due to the influence of Metiria, the relative decline of the Māori Party and the exposure of other Māori candidates in the party. Support for the Greens at least doubled, in some cases tripled, in all of the seven Māori electoral seats.

Indeed, in Te Tai Tonga, Dora Langsbury and the Greens achieved second place in the party vote, the only other electorate the Greens have been able to achieve this in was in Wellington Central in the same election.

Metiria Turei and Marama Davidson during
the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election 2013.

Since 2011 Metiria Turei has continued to gain influence and popularity and the party has received more interest from Māori media and Māori political commentators. Following the death of veteran Labour MP Parekura Horomia the decision was made for the Greens to stand in the resulting by-election in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti. High profile indigenous rights activist Marama Davidson was selected as the Green candidate. Despite shockingly low voter turnout, and an older, working class voting base, Marama received 11.6% of the vote. This was the best result the Greens have achieved in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and was the first time the Greens have stood in a by-election in a Māori seat.

Due to the by-election the party can no longer be ignored and not seen as a credible option for Māori. It has staked its place in the Māori seats as a fresh and viable 21st Century alternative to the ‘old’ Māori politics of sectionalism and patriarchal leadership.

The Greens also have a strong Māori caucus for a party of it's size. Denise Roche (Ngāti Raukawa, Ngāti Huri) and David Clendon (Ngāpuhi, Te Roroa) are talented MPs with significant experience in their respective portfolio areas; gambling, local government and waste in the case of Denise and small business, justice, police and Te Tiriti o Waitangi in the case of David.

With the planned departure of both Tariana Turia and Pita Sharlpes, the key battleground seats in 2014 will be Te Tai Hauāuru and Tāmaki Makaurau. Tāmaki is particularly vulnerable for the Māori Party, and the young, fairly liberal electorate has the potential to have a significant swing to the Greens. The Māori Party is stronger in Te Tai Hauāuru but has no clear succession plan. It is also the home of the Ratana-Labour alliance. However, the Greens went from 3.5% party vote to 11.2% in the 2011 election in the electorate, coming third place in both candidate and party votes, ahead of the Mana Party.

The Green Party does face significant challenges that it will need to overcome. However, all of these challenges can be met and if there’s anything that can be learnt from the last two decades in Māori politics, it is that the pendulum of Māori political support can swing quickly and in sometimes unexpected directions.

History has proven that we as Māori are willing to test new political options and vehicles of Māori aspiration. With their track record, values and personality the Green Party occupies a prime position to be able to be a powerful voice for our people both in Parliament and on the streets.


Post by Jack Tautokai McDonald

The battle for the Maori seats

A few weeks ago I enjoyed a beer with Lew from Kiwipolitico. Lew is one of my favourite bloggers and is perhaps the most astute political commentator in New Zealand. He is also one of the best commentators when it comes to Maori political issues - or Maori issues in general actually. When we were talking he mentioned that there are two elections happening this year. The main election battle between Labour and National and an election battle for the Maori seats. This is a fairly significant observation in my opinion.

Even under MMP the election is, for the most part, a battle between the two, for lack of a better term, material parties – Labour and National. We may not have an authentic two party system, but we do have a de facto two party system where political discourse occurs on the terms of the two main parties. Other parties are often a secondary concern and rarely penetrate the body politic. This trend will probably continue as New Zealand moves towards presidential style elections.

The other election is, as said, a battle for the Maori seats. A battle for the right to represent Maori. The Maori Party claims, or at least claimed, to represent Maori, however the party never really secured an undisputed mandate to do so. The Maori Party MP’s entered Parliament representing their respective constituents rather than Maori as a whole. The same is true of Parekura Horomia and Nanaia Mahuta. The Maori electorate MP’s wins did not symbolise an endorsement of the Maori Party or Labour Party. Their wins were a personal endorsement and a reflection of their own standing in their respective electorates.

The battle will feature three actors. The Labour Party, the Maori Party and the Mana Party. Three serious contenders. The Labour Party is just looking to secure a few extra seats, but the Maori Party and the Mana Party are seeking a mandate. A secure grip on the Maori seats and the right to say we have the mana to speak on behalf of Maori. The Maori Party desperately wants the mana to act unequivocally for Maori. This was the party’s goal from its genesis. The problem for the Maori Party is that Hone Harawira wants the same and he is making a legitimate claim. Hone realises the Maori Party is compromised and he is having no trouble convincing Maori that that is the case. On the other hand the Labour Party is looking to claim what is, historically speaking, theirs by right.

In my opinion neither Hone nor the Maori Party will secure a mandate. The Labour Party will not either. The political situation is too messy, it is unclear where everyone stands. Hone has yet to cultivate a clear claim as to why he should receive the mana to represent Maori. The Maori Party has given no reason why Maori should trust them again and Labour is yet to repent for the FSA 2004 betrayal. Tangible political issues are dominating Maori thinking as well. Maori are struggling through a violent increase in living costs and a brutal government agenda, for example ACC cuts and assaults on workers rights. There is little room for symbolic questions at the moment.

But is it even possible to represent all Maori? Probably not. Maori often act in unison and are united on many issues, especially questions of tino rangatiratanga. However, there will always be diversity of opinion. Maori may agree on an outcome, but there will be one thousand different ideas on how to get there. Maori may seem integrated, especially in terms of values, but there will always be subtle differences and small nuances that separate different iwi, hapu and even whanau.

I do think it is possible to hold the mana to act on behalf of Maori though. I do not mean the mana to act as a unilateral decision maker, but the mana to act as a symbolic leader, a person(s) who can unite Maori on certain issues and drive ideas among Maori.         

The battle for the Maori seats is, comparatively speaking, attracting little attention. This is surprising considering the results in the Maori seats will almost certainly determine who forms the next government. If the Maori Party is destroyed the National Party will lose their only stable coalition partner, therefore depriving them of another term in government (assuming Rodney Hide is toast in Epsom and an outright majority is not obtained). The Mana Party will undoubtedly fill the void and a centre left government would be almost guaranteed.

If I were to pick a representative of all Maori, I would pick Hone Harawira. Not because he reflects most Maori, but because he takes his job as a representative seriously. He remembers that his mana is derived from the people and the people can take it back. He speaks passionately and honestly. There is no pretending, nothing fake or forced, Hone speaks for Maori. The others speak, first and foremost, for themselves. They put electoral considerations ahead of what is perhaps right. Been a hopeless idealist, I like the thought of someone with a bit of honesty.

The Herald on Maori politics

An interesting piece from Claire Trevett in the Weekend Herald on the Maori Party and Hone Harawira:

Next week (the Maori Party) will meet to analyse that report (re the non-aggression pact). The agreement's demise is inevitable - not least because it is abundantly clear that while Harawira might not want the party to stand against him, he and his supporters certainly want to be able to stand against the Maori Party MPs.

As I have said, a Maori Party candidate in Te Tai Tokerau (TTT) will not dent Harawira’s support nor push the seat towards Labour. By my reckoning Hone’s base is comprised of around forty percent of TTT electors. In the wake of the expulsion saga I think he managed to solidify that base.

Hone enjoys a sixty two percent majority. I can think of no reason why that figure would decrease – even in a three way race. TTT is a Hone Harawira seat, not a Maori Party seat. Hone benefits from his record as an excellent electorate MP, he benefits from his reputation as an uncompromising Maori advocate and he benefits from his reputation as a genuine good bastard. Hone also maintains an excellent parliamentary record. He voted, for the most part, in principle, for example against the unfair tax switch and the inadequate MCA act, and he smashed tobacco companies and managed to convince a Tory government to increase taxes on tobacco products. Maori in TTT eat up Hone’s tino rangatiratanga rhetoric as well, for example “fiercely independent” iwi like Ngati Kahu. 

The Maori Party is expected to make its move on April 29 - the day before Harawira is to announce his party and new line-up. It will justify its decision by saying there was pressure from Maori Party supporters in Northland to give them someone to vote for.

So the Maori Party will announce whether they will stand a candidate against Harawira this Friday. This will be the Maori Party’s death sentence. Standing a candidate against Hone is utterly illogical. I do not know what the Maori Party expect to achieve. I do not believe that there is much pressure coming from the one or two remaining Maori Party supporters in TTT. I think the Maori Party is erecting a façade, and a pathetic one at that. This is not about placating one or two noisy Maori Party supporters in TTT, it is about destroying Hone as a means of self preservation. Maori will not and can not sustain two Maori Parties – something has to give. One has to be destroyed or one needs to take a broader approach i.e. look beyond Maori voters. Hone also represents a tangible and operating threat – he is pulling Maori Party supporters and will continue to do so (assuming ceteris paribus).

Claire continues:

In Te Tai Tokerau, that will undoubtedly result in a vote split between the Maori Party and Harawira.
The result could well be that Labour's candidate Kelvin Davis, who awaits this scenario with some glee, sweeps through the middle and takes the prize.

This is where she loses herself. Conventional wisdom would dictate that a third party candidate would push the seat towards the dissimilar candidate, read Kelvin Davis. This would perhaps be the case in a general electorate, but the Maori electorates are vastly different in terms of character. Different values are at play, different motivations, the issues are not generic, party ties are secondary, the differences between candidates are often cosmetic, the electorates encompass a huge area and, ultimately, voting is not a wholly rational exercise. For example some Maori will vote according to whakapapa. This wouldn’t occur in a general electorate. What I am trying to get at is that you cannot apply conventional understanding to what appears to be, on the surface at least, a simple political question. The Maori electorates are unpredictable and unusual.

If Davis wins the seat, Harawira does not. That may well be a sacrifice the Maori Party is willing to make - it is Harawira rather than Labour which is most corrosive to it.

A Harawira party without Harawira in Parliament is a far less dangerous prospect and if self-preservation means losing a limb, it may well be worth it.

Correct.

It is hard to gauge support levels for Harawira, beyond his own possibly inflated claims and one Native Affairs-Baseline poll in March in which about one-third of Maori voters said they would support him. 

Anecdotally speaking, there is a shitload of support for Hone Harawira in Waiariki and in Wellington. A terribly unscientific facebook poll on tangatawhenua.com’s page asking who you would vote for had a Harawira party on 152 votes and the Maori Party on 39 votes.

Previous Maori polls even close to an election have not reflected the result. Harawira has strong support in his own electorate, but it is yet to be seen how much of this was because of his Maori Party backing. 

As aforementioned, Harawira’s support is not a result of the Maori Party - TTT is a Harawira seat not a Maori Party seat. 

But in the Maori seats, it is Labour voters who decide who wins. Last election Labour maintained its stranglehold on the party vote in the Maori seats, with about 50 per cent.

True, to a certain extent. Maori vote for Labour out of habit and as a strategic move. Maori do not vote Labour because they believe in the principles of social democracy, or approve of Labours record on Maori issues, or because they’re “Labour people”. The vast majority of Maori have no idea what the hell is going on and vote Labour because it is an ingrained action. Those Maori that do know what is going on vote Labour because a centre left government is in the best interests of Maori. A party vote for the Maori Party is a wasted vote. Maori can have the best of both worlds if they vote Maori on one level and Labour on the next.

Phil Goff's decision to rule out working with Harawira in a government may be enough to staunch any significant flow of the Labour/Maori Party split vote to Harawira.

Maori do not think like this. Whether or not Hone is in government is inconsequential.

(The Maori Party) is still polling at about its 2008 level. But this time, the stars are in alignment. This election year, Labour is struggling in the polls leaving its votes ripe for the picking by another party with left wing policies

Dissatisfied Labour voters will naturally move to Hone. The Maori Party has vacated the left and now occupies the centre right while Hone is moving left. It would take a pretty significant ideological shift for Labour voters to move towards the Maori Party. Why would Labour voters support a party that props up a National government?

Add to this the increased mana that comes with the ministerial positions held by Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia, and a significant lift in the party vote could be achieved if the Maori Party works for it.

This counts for nothing when that mana has not been utilised appropriately i.e. it was used to pass the MCA act among other transgressions. Mana comes with qualifications, it is not a virue in itself.

The party is not blind to this opportunity - but despite its term in government, it has not capitalised on its influence by strong fundraising among wealthier iwi and businesses, many of whom must be watching with some unease the prospect of Harawira unseating the Maori Party.

This is interesting. I would have assumed that financial support from some iwi would be a given. If iwi do not support the Maori Party after having received a number of sops, including the ETS, then they are incredibly ungrateful.

Names of potential candidates are emerging - including Mereana Pitman in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, where the battle could be wide open if Parekura Horomia does not stand again.

Former Maori Party stalwart Angeline Greensill is also expected to stand for Harawira in the Waikato-Tainui seat after missing Maori Party selection for the third year running.

Both Mereana Pitman and Angeline Greensill are strong candidates. I think both are members of Te Whaainga Wahine, an emerging organisation of wahine Maori and a Maori political force of the future, and both enjoy huge respect in their respective rohe. Angeline Greensill has come close in Hauraki-Waikato and is a strong opponent of the corrupt Tuku Morgan and Te Arataura. Mereana Pitman is from the protest generation and enjoys a national reputation. I do not think Greensill would win Hauraki Waikato, but Pitman has a chance if, as Claire says, Parekura steps down. Mereana Pitman is a Hone Harawira like figure, without the rough edges and the aggressive demeanour. She is respected as a Maori advocate, someone who has done the mahi on the ground, and is, by all accounts, an intelligent woman. She is untested as a politician though.

Overall, an excellent piece from Claire Trevett. I’m looking forward to Harawira’s launch this weekend. I will blog on the launch and any interesting aspects next week, hopefully.  

The hikoi arrives

I joined the hikoi today as it descended on Parliament. The mood was solemn - a sense of sadness pervaded the group. As the people marched through Wellington a strict silence was observed as a means of acknowledging the intense hurt successive governments have caused. It was incredibly moving both watching the hikoi and then joining it at Parliament. You could feel that the people walked with the wairua of their tupuna and this gave them strength.

The hikoi was, by my estimation, around 500-700 strong. Obviously this is well down on the hikoi of 2004. A respectable number anyhow. The group was, in terms of age, incredibly diverse. It was uplifting to see so many young people. The Greens also had a strong presence, as usual, and a number of sympathetic Pakeha marched with the hikoi. The only politician, or aspiring politician I should say, that joined the hikoi was Rino Tirikatene, Labour’s candidate for Te Tai Tonga.   

As the hikoi arrived we were welcomed onto Parliament grounds by the local iwi. Unsurprisingly there was a huge police presence at Parliament. I like to contrast the heavy police presence at Maori protests with the relatively light police presence at, for lack of a better term, mainstream protests. At one of the mining protests I attended last year there would have been around ten police officers. At today’s protest there were well over 40, including plain clothes police officers.

To my surprise a number of MP’s were there to meet the hikoi. Labour’s Maori team was there, a number of National MP’s including Chris Finlayson, the Greens were there of course. The Maori Party was also present, however they tended to hide behind the Nats. And, as you would expect, Hone met the hikoi as well.

The formalities then began. The old people spoke, and spoke brilliantly at that, and a number of items were ceremonially placed, including the text of the MCA bill, in a casket which was returned to Parliament. This was a symbol of Maori discontent. A number of taonga were also returned to Kaipara and Tamaki Makaurau iwi signalling their regret in supporting the Maori Party. Unfortunately the weather did not permit any speeches from the other side.

It really did sadden me to see the hikoi. Many of those participating were clearly destitute. A number had just walked away from their jobs to support the kaupapa. I heard of a story of a kaumatua who felt so strongly about restoring our mana whenua that he walked with the hikoi all the way from Te Rerenga Wairua to Wellington. By the time the hikoi arrived in Wellington his shoes had worn away to almost nothing. This brings me to a point I want to make. This hikoi was so small, in comparison to the 2004 hikoi that is, because people just could not afford to march. In the current economic environment our people cannot afford to drop everything and march on Parliament. Not anymore.

Hopefully something will come of this hikoi. Not necessarily a backdown on the MCA bill. But perhaps it may awaken Maori political consciousness. This hikoi should not have been for nothing.