Who's ahead in Te Tai Hauāuru?

Chris McKenzie: the front runner in Te Tai Hauauru

It seems we have a new front runner in Te Tai Hauāuru. Via the Whanganui Chronicle: 

“The race for Te Tai Hauāuru is as close as predicted with the Māori Party's Chris McKenzie holding a slim three-point lead over Labour rival Adrian Rurawhe. 

A Māori TV/ Reid Research poll released on Wednesday had Mr McKenzie on 32 per cent with Mr Rurawhe on 29 per cent, the Greens' Jack McDonald on 11 per cent and the Mana Movement's Jordan Winiata on 10 per cent - impressive given that he had only been in the race for one week”.

I’m told this reflects the Māori Party’s internal polling. I’m also told it’s difficult to poll at the electorate level, doubly so in the Māori electorates. For that reason, we should treat the poll as indicative, not definitive. In any event the gap between the two front runners is within the margin of error (5%).

But on the strength of the Native Affairs debate last week, Chris McKenzie deserves to lead. I called the debate for Jack Tautokai McDonald – I’m hopelessly biased, granted – but Jack is only after the party vote. Thus, between those who are running for the electorate vote and the party vote, the winner was Chris McKenzie. He was in command of his policies and his facts. More so than Adrian Rurawhe and Jordan Winiata who, it should be noted, were both strong, but there were two professional politicians at the podium: Jack and Chris. As talented as Adrian and Jordan are, they were clearly a cut below the more experienced candidates. 

Not that the debate will change much, other than the respective campaign teams. This is where Adrian’s advantage lies. He has the stronger campaign team (like the formidable Gaylene Nepia). One shouldn’t underestimate the advantage of institutional support too. Drawing on the Labour Party’s campaign knowledge is an advantage, as is the brand bump from standing on the Labour ticket. If the trend continues, the Māori Party candidates will suffer from a brand slump ("a vote for the Māori Party is a vote for National" etc…).

But Chris has a secret weapon too: Tariana Turia. Her endorsement and support might be enough to hold the electorate. However, Ken Mair made an important point last year - "we aren’t looking for a candidate to fill Tariana’s shoes. We are looking for a candidate to carve a new path". I agree with that in one sense - the challenge is not to succeed Tariana the person (though I still think succession politics is relevant). Instead Chris must frame himself as the successor to Tariana’s legacy. That is, the successor to kaupapa Māori politics. 

So, in that light, who holds the advantage? Probably Adrian. As attractive as I find the philosophical and practical argument – that Chris is needed to protect kaupapa Māori politics – Adrian’s position is much stronger. Material needs trump and, on that one count, Labour is in a better policy position. 

Kiwibuild; KiwiAssure; Kiwisaver; NZ Power; the Economic Upgrade; extending ECE; restoring adult and community education; Māori trade training; the living wage in the public sector and $16.25 minimum wage; forestry and wood products policy; food in schools; subsidizing school donations and free tablets; bowel screening; free dental care; GP visits and prescriptions for pregnant women; healthy homes guarantee; manufacturing upgrade. The list really does go on.  

Labour's position is more comprehensive than the Māori Party. Few voters will know the details, but many will know intuitively that a Labour-led government is in a better position to meet Māori needs than the Māori Party within a National-led government. Now that's a very powerful narrative. 

Why I am standing for Te Tai Hauāuru - Jack McDonald

Ko Taranaki te Maunga
Ko Taranaki te Tangata
Ko Taranaki te Iwi
Ko te puna i heke mai ai te tangata
E kore e pau te ika unahi nui

The threads of my whakapapa from across the Te Tai Hauāuru electorate weave together to bind my identity – my Māoritanga. A product of Te Tai Hauāuru, I am ready to stand up for our whānau and our whenua. I am ready to provide a new generation of political leadership.

I pay tribute to Whaea Tariana Turia, who has served our electorate with a power and distinction that is rarely seen in the political world. She has been our MP for 12 years, and has for that time been at the forefront of the fight for mana motuhake and has set a benchmark for Māori political representation in Parliament.

No one can replace Whaea Tariana's leadership, but her retirement offers Te Tai Hauāuru a rare opportunity; the opportunity to force a generational shift in our leadership and to chart a distinct course based on new ideas and a fresh outlook.

While attending the Rātana celebrations on the 24th of January I announced that I will be seeking the Green Party candidacy for Te Tai Hauāuru and standing for the Greens’ list.

~

As an uri of Taranaki Iwi and Te Āti Awa, many of my tupuna embarked on the heke that travelled from one end of the electorate to the other; from Taranaki maunga to the coastlines of Kāpiti and Mana. I have lived all my life in the small coastal town of Paekākāriki and I currently serve my community as the Chair of our Community Board and as our representative at the Kāpiti Coast council table.

Green representatives at Rātana Pā 2014

I stood in this electorate for the Greens in the 2011 general elections. It was the first time the Greens had stood a candidate in this electorate, so I had some very clear objectives in mind; spreading the Green kaupapa across the rohe and strengthening the position of the Greens in Māori communities. We were successful in our objectives; tripling the Greens party vote in Te Tai Hauāuru and securing third place in the electorate vote.

I have always believed that the Greens' values are remarkably similar to our values as Māori. And because a commitment to Te Tiriti o Waitangi is a core part of our party's charter, the Greens are the strongest and most principled advocates in Parliament for honouring Te Tiriti and building a strong Treaty partnership.

~

It’s never been more important that we have strong Green representation in Te Tai Hauāuru. With both National and Labour supporting risky deep sea oil drilling off the Taranaki coast, it’s vital we send a message that we can’t risk destroying the environment which sustains our economy and our well-being. I stand in solidarity with hapū, iwi and community groups that are standing up to the drilling interests.

The extractive industries produce few jobs, while our two biggest industries, primary production and tourism, both rely on our clean, green brand. We also know that continued reliance on a fossil-fuel based economy will lead to increased carbon emissions and a more unstable climate.

There is an unique opportunity for iwi heading into the post-settlement era to be at the forefront of innovation and the transition to a sustainable economy. Greens propose a fairer Treaty settlement process, support for Māori small business and a massive investment in research and development and clean energy.

A strong Green Party will be able to hold both major parties to account. We have proven that we can make change from across Parliament, without compromising our values and our convictions. A party vote for the Greens will ensure there is a social and environmental conscience at the heart of a new progressive government.

Winning in Te Tai Hauauru

The Maori Party has revealed that six candidates will contest the nomination for Te Tai Hauauru. From the party website:

Hundreds of Maori Party members from throughout the electorate gathered at Whangaehu Marae south of Whanganui yesterday to hear from the six nominees and cast their vote... The nominees are: 

• Frana Chase; 

• Rahui Katene; 

• James Makowharemahihi; 

• Christopher McKenzie; 

• Amokura Panoho; 

• Pakake Winiata.

With the exception of Rahui Katene, these aren't big names. Or put it this way: there isn't a Julian Wilcox. But the party doesn't need a name candidate. Tariana Turia's endorsement and support could be enough to keep the electorate in Maori Party hands. It'd be reckless - and more than unfair - to underestimate the respect and support Tariana has earnt and enjoys. Ken Mair makes an important point, though - "we aren’t looking for a candidate to fill Tariana’s shoes. We are looking for a candidate to carve a new path".

The Maori Party needs to rebuild its identity. The Maori renaissance is over and the post-settlement era is beginning. Tariana and Pita Sharples were - and to some extent still are - central figures from the Maori renaissance. New hands are needed to redevelop what a Maori party looks like in 2013. Being loosely pro-Maori doesn't cut it when three other parties can credibly claim the same rationale (Greens, Labour, Mana).

There's increasing political choice in the Maori electorates. Labour's monopoly is over and the two-way battles of 2005 and 2008 were short lived. Four parties can credibly claim that they're contenders. In an environment where each seat is contested vigorously the Maori Party needs to have something more. New blood is better positioned to redefine the contract between the Maori Party and Maori society than the old hands. That's why the decision in Te Tai Hauauru might be the most important decision the party makes. Good luck to them.

Shane Jones, oil drilling and sustainable development

Last month while on a visit to Taranaki with Andrew Little, Shane Jones made his latest attack on the Green Party. Taranaki is one of the biggest parts of my electorate Te Tai Hauāuru and is where I whakapapa to.

Jones, in his capacity as Labour’s Māori Affairs and Regional Development spokesperson thought it appropriate to distance Labour from the Greens so called “anti-development” agenda.

Jones seems to think that oil drilling and gas exploration are popular in Taranaki, even though they aren't on the East Coast. Well, Mr Jones is simply wrong. We as Māori, whether we are from Taranaki, Gisborne, Kaitaia or Dunedin, have a fundamental commitment to the protection of Papatuānuku.

What makes his argument even more disingenuous is that the Greens don't even oppose most shallow oil drilling in Taranaki. We oppose risky deep sea oil drilling that has no adequate environmental safeguards. We do support a moratorium on fracking and we know that the oil and gas industry is not the answer to our youth unemployment problem.

By painting the Greens as the opposition to economic development on the basis of their opposition to oil drilling, Jones is doing a disservice to prominent Māori values and perspectives. Māori and the Greens have a holistic world view. We can’t have a prosperous economy and high quality of life without a healthy environment at its foundation.

So these comments from Jones really won’t fly in Te Tai Hauāuru:

"Sustainability is as much about sustaining the livelihood of people as it is about guarding the ecological habitat of the Hochstetter's frog. As long as I am in politics as a Maori politician I am going to be unambiguous in standing up for jobs and people,"

The Greens do stand up for jobs and people, consistently. Indeed their track record on these issues is much stronger than Shane Jones’. Sustainable development and jobs aren't mutually exclusive concepts. They work hand in hand.

Interestingly, Mr Jones also said that ‘he occasionally found common cause with New Zealand First it was only with the aid of a telescope that he might do the same with the Greens’. So he would prefer to work with a party that is consistently anti Māori rights and self-determination than with the Greens who present a vision completely compatible with kaupapa Māori. This is astounding.

Labour really needs to rein in Shane Jones if a coalition between Labour and the Greens is seen to be palatable for voters. Labour won’t enter Government with New Zealand First alone.

Most of Jones’ own party seems to understand this, including the Māori caucus. Moana Mackey, who is Labour’s spokesperson for Energy, has been critical about the lack of regulation and safeguards in place for deep sea oil drilling and Meka Whaitiri MP for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti came out against it during the by-election campaign. In her maiden speech she said:

“Regional development is critical to the success of the nation’s sustainable economic growth, and more needs to be done at the regional level. In Ikaroa-Rāwhiti it is about people as much as it is about market drivers. 
Oil exploration and dams that wipe out complete valleys are not sustainable. There are alternatives, and greater investment in regional research and development will show that. Developing high-level strategic goals with community movers and shakers encourages ownership and, therefore, commitment.”

Well said. This is such a stark contrast with Jones’ vews. Maybe Labour should make Whaitiri there Regional Development and Māori Affairs spokesperson. Her attitude is more in step with the times we live in.

Labour's new leader is going to have to provide clarity on their deep sea oil drilling policy and their wider economic development framework.

The key to the future of the Māori economy is investment in research and development and Māori innovation. Global investment in clean energy will reach $800 billion by 2015. It would be transformative for the Māori economy if we could get even just a small piece of this action.

Post by Jack Tautokai McDonald

The Green Party and Māori

The Greens have not traditionally been seen as a party of Māori aspiration, but instead as largely an urban Pākehā dominated party. There is a great deal of truth in this. But the history is more complicated than many realise. Support for the party among Māori has at times been high, and other times low. It has fluctuated with the stability and strength of the other parties.

Te Roopu Pounamu, the Māori members' network of the Green Party, was established in 2000 and grew in strength as a voice for Māori in the party. With the leadership of Metiria Turei, the network succeeded in amending the party’s charter to recognise and commit to the Māori text of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. This was a defining moment, because it has ensured that there is one mainstream party with significant support that is committed to stand up against historical and contemporary breaches of Te Tiriti. I don't think Labour will ever commit to the Te Reo Māori text, and we need to remind our selves of that more often.

The Greens polled very well in the Māori seats in 2002, with a Māori electorate party vote average of 10.5%, the year Metiria entered Parliament.

However, the political climate dramatically shifted with Don Brash’s Orewa speech, the Foreshore and Seabed Act 2004 and the establishment of an independent Māori political voice, the Māori Party. Many of our members and voters were inclined to support this independent Māori voice, and so our support took a hit in the 2005 elections, an election that saw the emergence of Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples as significant and influential political leaders, with a huge range of support among Māori voters. We lost an average of -7.3% party vote in the Māori electorates, and this was a strong contributing factor to our close proximity to the 5% threshold in that particular election.

The confidence and supply agreement between National and the Māori Party was the catalyst for another shift in the political climate. A steady stream of activists, members and supporters began dissociating themselves with the party and the Government it was supporting. This conflict came to a head with the departure of Hone Harawira from the Māori Party, which led to him forming the Mana Party.

However, Hone and Mana haven’t been the only beneficiaries of the Māori Party’s decline. The Greens also saw a rise in support, in part due to this political shift, but also because of the ascension of Metiria Turei to co-leader and her ever-growing profile in Māori communities. Metiria has become a champion for wāhine Māori and Māori whānau and is immensely popular; particularly among young, educated Māori. With the exception of Winston Peters, she is the only Māori leader of a mainstream political party.

The Greens support among Māori raised dramatically at the 2011 general election, a +6.3% party vote increase, largely due to the influence of Metiria, the relative decline of the Māori Party and the exposure of other Māori candidates in the party. Support for the Greens at least doubled, in some cases tripled, in all of the seven Māori electoral seats.

Indeed, in Te Tai Tonga, Dora Langsbury and the Greens achieved second place in the party vote, the only other electorate the Greens have been able to achieve this in was in Wellington Central in the same election.

Metiria Turei and Marama Davidson during
the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election 2013.

Since 2011 Metiria Turei has continued to gain influence and popularity and the party has received more interest from Māori media and Māori political commentators. Following the death of veteran Labour MP Parekura Horomia the decision was made for the Greens to stand in the resulting by-election in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti. High profile indigenous rights activist Marama Davidson was selected as the Green candidate. Despite shockingly low voter turnout, and an older, working class voting base, Marama received 11.6% of the vote. This was the best result the Greens have achieved in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and was the first time the Greens have stood in a by-election in a Māori seat.

Due to the by-election the party can no longer be ignored and not seen as a credible option for Māori. It has staked its place in the Māori seats as a fresh and viable 21st Century alternative to the ‘old’ Māori politics of sectionalism and patriarchal leadership.

The Greens also have a strong Māori caucus for a party of it's size. Denise Roche (Ngāti Raukawa, Ngāti Huri) and David Clendon (Ngāpuhi, Te Roroa) are talented MPs with significant experience in their respective portfolio areas; gambling, local government and waste in the case of Denise and small business, justice, police and Te Tiriti o Waitangi in the case of David.

With the planned departure of both Tariana Turia and Pita Sharlpes, the key battleground seats in 2014 will be Te Tai Hauāuru and Tāmaki Makaurau. Tāmaki is particularly vulnerable for the Māori Party, and the young, fairly liberal electorate has the potential to have a significant swing to the Greens. The Māori Party is stronger in Te Tai Hauāuru but has no clear succession plan. It is also the home of the Ratana-Labour alliance. However, the Greens went from 3.5% party vote to 11.2% in the 2011 election in the electorate, coming third place in both candidate and party votes, ahead of the Mana Party.

The Green Party does face significant challenges that it will need to overcome. However, all of these challenges can be met and if there’s anything that can be learnt from the last two decades in Māori politics, it is that the pendulum of Māori political support can swing quickly and in sometimes unexpected directions.

History has proven that we as Māori are willing to test new political options and vehicles of Māori aspiration. With their track record, values and personality the Green Party occupies a prime position to be able to be a powerful voice for our people both in Parliament and on the streets.


Post by Jack Tautokai McDonald

On Tariana Turia's retirement

A few comments on Tariana Turia’s decision to retire:

• Te Tai Hauauru isn't wide open - yet. Turia retains a loyal following and has, I think, the mana to anoint a successor. On the other hand, 2017 will be anyone's election. Unless Turia’s successor solidifies her base, boundary changes and a strong field might weaken the Maori Party hold on the seat. It’s worth remembering that their share of the party vote has declined from 31% in 2005 to 21% in 2011. Assuming that 2014 will be a four-way contest in the Maori seats (Lab v Green v Mana v Maori), the downward trend will continue. 

• Rahui Katene now has an opening. Rahui is based in Porirua (one of the electorate’s major population areas) and has campaigning experience and an experienced campaign team. As much as Katene wants Te Tai Tonga, that electorate’s staying red for the foreseeable future. Katene will also fulfill the constitutional requirement that there be both a male and female leader. 

• Turia’s legacy is not whanau ora. The program, in its current form, will not survive a change of government. Turia’s legacy is the Maori Party itself and the normalisation of kaupapa Maori politics. The Maori Party are not and never were a radical party. Their approach to governing, rather than looking to overthrow or remould the system, was to insert Maori into the governing and business classes. The party achieved that. The Iwi Leaders Group are now a power structure in NZ society, government has and is devolving some power to iwi (think Whanau Ora and Charter Schools) and the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People lends international recognition to tangata whenua. 

• On the other hand, Maori unemployment is double the national rate, wages are stagnant, schools are not “demonstrating sufficient commitment to ensuring the progress and achievement of Māori students” and Maori spend $5b more than we earn. On the issues that matter to most Maori, the needle hasn't moved. 

• Not to take anything away from Tariana Turia and her achievements. She deserves an enjoyable and prosperous retirement.

Native Affairs Kowhiri 11: Te Tai Hauauru Review

Disappointing. That’s about the only way to describe lastnight’s Te Tai Hauauru debate. If it wasn’t for Jack McDonald and Tariana Turia I would have switched off. If last night should be noted for anything it’s that Jack McDonald is, without a shred of a doubt, a rising star. He knew Green policy well, he made reference to Maori values and he spoke with a certain amount of depth and good knowledge of Green talking points. He represented the Greens brilliantly and did himself and his whanau proud.

Tariana Turia was, naturally, very strong. Her responses were, across the board, the strongest. She will retain her seat with ease after last night. Although I disagree with what Tariana has done over the past term, I have mad respect for what she has done for Maori, most notably her role in the foreshore and seabed battle where Tariana played an integral part in ushering in a new era of Maori political consciousness. I also respect her lead role in forcing the government to introduce Whanau Ora. Tariana has, despite some low points over the past three years, been a champion for her people.

Soraya Peke-Mason had her high points, but she wasn’t up to the same standard as Tariana. This is, to be fair, expected. Soraya is a first timer and was under some pressure to perform. The lights, the cameras and crowd will often get to people who are not extroverted and experienced. I don’t think she will threaten Tariana. I should also point out that she knew, at the beginning anyway, her talking points well.

Fredrick Timutimu, well, he was no Hurricane Dearlove, but he did okay in the circumstances I guess. He needs more polish. I don’t think he is political material – or not yet anyway. Very Solomon Tipene like.

I enjoyed the question on how each party would act on job creation. Tariana was the strongest, I expected much better from Soraya (she should have prepared an answer to this question in advance – it was so obvious!), Jack McDonald spoke well on the Green’s job creation policy mentioning insulating homes, cleaning up the environment and steering a new direction in the economy.

The question on Iwi allegiances was also good. Jack McDonald pointed out he was moving around the entire electorate, Tariana pointed out her job in Parliament comes with an obligation to all Maori (and she’s right and I don’t doubt she acts under anything but an obligation to all Maori), Timutimu said Mana was for the people by the people and that whakapapa binds all Maori, Soraya highlighted her links across the entire electorate including in the Waikato.

On points, it’s Tariana all day, but the real star last night was Jack McDonald. Kudos must go to Julian Wilcox as well – one of the best interviewers in New Zealand.