Election 2014: the left represents no one while claiming to represent everyone

Our returning Overlord: the Rt. Hon. John Key.

There are, it seems, many New Zealands. There is the sceptical, radical, reformist New Zealand – the one I admire, the one I’m proud to support – and then there is the thin-lipped, conservative, know-your-place New Zealand. Neither New Zealand much likes the other, let alone understands the Other. Yet my New Zealand – and, if you’re reading this, probably our New Zealand – is in retreat, even disarray. Meanwhile, status-quo New Zealand – their New Zealand - is ascendant. 

Even before the results rolled in my sense of alienation had blossomed into something closer to a full-scale culture shock. Where has my New Zealand gone? How could the party of Dirty Politics poll this high? It used to be said that politics was a secondary and subservient branch of ethics, did we forget that or never believe it in the first place? New Zealanders pride themselves on a kind of earthy realism, yet this seemed  like something closer to Stockholm syndrome. 

Of course, the answers don’t matter because we’re asking the wrong questions. This election was never about Dirty Politics or ethics in politics. It wasn't even about the politics of mass surveillance or hope for something better. No one is suffering from Stockholm syndrome either. This was an endorsement of a third way government. It was an endorsement of a man who is less politician, more phenomenon.

The fifth Labour government’s redistributive policies are still in place. Government spending is rising. Unemployment is gradually decreasing. We are in the magic zone (surplus). The status quo still serves those it's meant to keep content – the middle. In light of that change always seemed unlikely. For those who are at the hard edge of government policies and a mediocre economy – beneficiaries and the working poor – voting is increasingly becoming a class act. A middle class act. Not because beneficiaries or the working poor are feckless scum stuck in their self-defeating ways, but because the left isn’t reaching them. 

That's not to say the left isn't left enough. Labour 2014 is further to the left than Labour 2004. Labour 2011 was more left than Labour 2008. The problem is more fundamental than a shift to the left or right. After all, there was plenty to vote for. What excited me, knowing the awful living conditions the poor in this country must put up with, was Kiwibuild. 100,000 new homes. It’s very easy to treat that as an abstraction, but for people living with rotten bathrooms, sleeping in damp bedrooms and eating in mouldy kitchens 100,000 news homes matter. 

Yet the problem wasn’t that the policies were poorly pitched. The problem seems to be that politics – the process, the institutions and then the policies - isn’t reaching voters at the hard edge. Our New Zealand not only talks past the New Zealand that won last night, our New Zealand also seems to talk past the people we claim to represent. Everyone is entitled to a better life, yet our leaders seem incapable of giving convincing expression to that very simple idea. Labour and the Greens made two cases very well – “here’s what we’ll do and how we’ll do it – yet the sine qua non – here’s why we’ll do it – isn’t reaching New Zealand. Notice that I’m using New Zealand as the collective now, not its many parts.

I saw David Cunliffe this morning. I had no words for him. What do you say when your side has been routed? And how do you say it to the man who will be held responsible? Although he put on a very brave face, he was clearly a broken man. Not in an emotional or physical sense, but spiritually spent. It was a uniquely horrible feeling. And's that's for me. 

I saw Metiria Turei too. She was warm, as always. We hugged it out while she was leaving the set. It was small moment of optimism in a bleak day. I reflected on that moment today and decided I’m not going to wallow in the collective pity nor indulge in self-pity. Fuck that. National deserved its crushing victory – credit to them - we most probably deserved our routing. Defeat is an opportunity and I’m taking this opportunity to join the Greens. I see it like this: the left’s old guard has no answers. None. We need a new generation. It's time for our New Zealand to step up. 

Maori politics: crises, opportunities and the Greens

I was born in 1991. In 1991 Pita Sharples was working across the public service and he was a visiting professor at Auckland University. In 1991 Pita Sharples was working with and for Maori. In the decades before 1991, Pita Sharples was working with and for Maori. He’s still working with and for Maori. For that, he has my deepest respect.

Though service is the rent we pay for living. Pita Sharples’ record of service is long and it's his time to step down.

Crisis versus opportunity

There are two views on Pita’s resignation: that it represents a crisis in the Maori Party or that it presents an opportunity for political renewal.

Well, political crisis’s trigger resignations, but vacancies come with opportunities.

Generational change will create a break from the political period that Turia and Sharples embody. The post-settlement era is close and the Maori renaissance era is closing. The Maori Party must use the leadership change (and the ideological and personnel openings that that change creates) to renegotiate the contract between their party and the Maori electorate.

That means recreating the Maori Party’s political identity. The party was founded in opposition to the Foreshore and Seabed Act 2004 and based on the premise that the party wasn’t left or right – it was Maori. 

In other words, the Maori Party was a pan-Maori political party. That has failed. The Maori political landscape has fragmented (Mana has split to the left, Labour might be “rising” and the Greens are emerging). The Maori Party doesn’t have to accept the left/right dichotomy, but it must carve a coherent position (e.g. tino rangatiratanga for the post-settlement era). There is space for a kaupapa Maori party – that is independent (and is seen to be). The Maori Party, in its current arrangements at least, is not (and is not seen to be). A leader who doesn’t hold a ministerial warrant (e.g. Te Ururoa) is better positioned to reclaim the party’s independence.

However, the great barriers are that the Maori Party is accountable against its record and Pita Sharples helps anchor the Maori Party’s remaining support. He’s Papa Pita – one of the most trusted Maori MPs. Pita has to leave on his own terms. If his resignation is seen to be forced that will compromise the mana of the man and the party. In that sense, the resignation poses its consequences.

Who deserved the blame?

It’s unfair that Pita has shouldered the blame. Na Raihania’s poor placing in the Ikaroa-Rawhiti byelection was not solely a reaction against the leadership battles in the Maori Party. The party’s troubles are more deep rooted.

If you view politics as a horse race it’s tempting to identify leadership battles, disunity and the back-and-forth of the political process as reasons for the poor showing of party X or politician Y. Reality is more complicated.

Doubts developed in the Maori Party’s first term. The party entered government on a high. Te Tai Tonga elected a new Maori Party MP and a “mana-enhancing” deal was reached with the Prime Minister and the National Party. After the conflict of the previous four years, 2008 felt positively peaceful.

When in Rome, do as the Romans. When in government, don't always do as the government. From 2008 to 2011 the fatal narrative crept in and solidified: that the Maori Party wins had been more symbolic than substantive and that a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National. Colin James encapsulated it well in arguing that the Maori Party is and was seen as National’s “proxy” in the Maori seats.

The party swallowed its defeats, but its wins weren’t seen to neutralise the eroding trust that the defeats had triggered. The debacle over the Rugby World Cup broadcasting rights, a defeat for Maori seats on the Auckland Council and bad faith in the Tuhoe settlement negotiations contributed to the idea that the Maori Party was part of a mana-diminishing deal. The party also voted for unpopular pieces of legislation (e.g. the ETS) and (consistent with their supply and confidence agreement) a budget that Maori opposed. The Maori Party’s strength is that it’s independent and accountable to Maori (c.f. Labour). But its independence was beginning to be questioned.

In 2010 the negative narratives started developing and the consensus within the party begun unravelling. Hone Harawira tried to cross the floor against budget 2010 and he appeared increasingly isolated. In early 2011 the consensus broke when Hone – after taking a swipe against the Maori Party in the Sunday Star Times – was expelled. The Maori Party split right and Hone (soon to become the Mana Party) split left with prominent Maori Party members (including Annette Sykes, Angeline Greensill and Mereana Pitman) too. The narrative that a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National solidified and Maori politics divided along class lines. Mana carved a position for the Maori working class and (mostly by omission) the Maori Party was seen to be the party for iwi and the Maori middle class.

Accepting a deal with the National Party was always a risk. Although Labour’s vote had been trending downwards, the Maori electorates remained overwhelmingly left. There was little affection for National, but a grudging acceptance that Maori should operate across the political acceptance. Tough circumstances (e.g. high Maori unemployment) took that acceptance to its limits and in 2011 it broke. With this in mind, the decline of the Maori Party is best traced to 2011 – when the narratives solidified, Hone steered half of the party left and broke Maori politics along class lines - rather than contemporary leadership trouble.

Te Ururoa is the heir apparent

Te Ururoa Flavell is the ideal leader for the contemporary Maori Party: pragmatic and respected across the left and right. He also offers continuity post-Turia/Sharples and a generational change.

However, the party must consider whether their interests are better represented by an external leader. A leader who isn’t tainted by the debacles in 2011 or the leadership disunity in 2012 and 2013. Rawiri Taonui has identified Naida Glavish as a potential leader. If she were elected that would be a platform for her to succeed Pita in Tamaki Makaurau.

Alternatively, a co-leadership arrangement. Glavish as the female leader and Te Ururoa as the male leader. That gives Te Ururoa the position he has been seeking for (literally) years and Glavish represents a break from the toxic period 2008-2011. Rahui Katene has indicated that she is interested in co-leading the party too. However, Rahui wasn't reelected as the MP for Te Tai Tonga in 2011. She does not represent the clean break that Glavish does. Glavish is the clean break, Te Ururoa is the continuity.

Tamaki Makaurau has fallen

Unless the Mana and the Maori Party come to a deal, say the Maori Party runs Glavish and Mana runs a party vote campaign, then Tamaki Makaurau will fall to Labour.

In 2008 Pita won a 7000 vote majority and the Maori Party secured 28% of the party vote. In 2011 Shane Jones came within 1000 votes of unseating Pita and the Maori Party secured 14% of the party vote. The Mana Party secured (literally) half of the Maori Party’s 2008 vote.

The new Maori Party candidate is not guaranteed to inherit Pita’s vote. The vote will fragment further and the Labour candidate (Shane Jones isn’t guaranteed) will storm through the middle. If Mana and the Maori Party want Tamaki Makaurau to remain with a kaupapa Maori Party then they must come to an arrangement.

Te Tai Hauauru might not fall
Ken Mair has been named as a potential replacement. I think he can win. He has the name recognition and the reputation (he is a respected activist and isn’t tainted by association with the National Party).

Of course, it all depends on how strong the field is. A stronger Mana candidate might cannabilise the Maori Party vote and Jack Tautokai McDonald (assuming he stands again) is well placed to increase his share of the vote. It’s too early to call, but I think Te Tai Hauauru remains winnable for the Maori Party.

The Greens are rising?

The beneficiary might not be Mana or Labour, but the Greens. Mana could be perceived as too close (and partly responsible for) the toxicity in Maori politics. Labour is stable, but associated with the foreshore and seabed era. The same is not true of the Greens.

The Greens are now an accepted part of Maori political discourse. The Treaty is at the heart of the party and its policy is aimed at equality. After 173 years of inequality, Maori are hungry for structural change and the equality that the Greens promote.

The party affirmed its commitment to Maori in the Ikaroa-Rawhiti belection and Metiria Turei has been a consistent and prominent voice on Maori issues. If Maori voters are shopping around for a replacement, the Greens are the best alternative. The Greens are rising? 

The hikoi arrives

I joined the hikoi today as it descended on Parliament. The mood was solemn - a sense of sadness pervaded the group. As the people marched through Wellington a strict silence was observed as a means of acknowledging the intense hurt successive governments have caused. It was incredibly moving both watching the hikoi and then joining it at Parliament. You could feel that the people walked with the wairua of their tupuna and this gave them strength.

The hikoi was, by my estimation, around 500-700 strong. Obviously this is well down on the hikoi of 2004. A respectable number anyhow. The group was, in terms of age, incredibly diverse. It was uplifting to see so many young people. The Greens also had a strong presence, as usual, and a number of sympathetic Pakeha marched with the hikoi. The only politician, or aspiring politician I should say, that joined the hikoi was Rino Tirikatene, Labour’s candidate for Te Tai Tonga.   

As the hikoi arrived we were welcomed onto Parliament grounds by the local iwi. Unsurprisingly there was a huge police presence at Parliament. I like to contrast the heavy police presence at Maori protests with the relatively light police presence at, for lack of a better term, mainstream protests. At one of the mining protests I attended last year there would have been around ten police officers. At today’s protest there were well over 40, including plain clothes police officers.

To my surprise a number of MP’s were there to meet the hikoi. Labour’s Maori team was there, a number of National MP’s including Chris Finlayson, the Greens were there of course. The Maori Party was also present, however they tended to hide behind the Nats. And, as you would expect, Hone met the hikoi as well.

The formalities then began. The old people spoke, and spoke brilliantly at that, and a number of items were ceremonially placed, including the text of the MCA bill, in a casket which was returned to Parliament. This was a symbol of Maori discontent. A number of taonga were also returned to Kaipara and Tamaki Makaurau iwi signalling their regret in supporting the Maori Party. Unfortunately the weather did not permit any speeches from the other side.

It really did sadden me to see the hikoi. Many of those participating were clearly destitute. A number had just walked away from their jobs to support the kaupapa. I heard of a story of a kaumatua who felt so strongly about restoring our mana whenua that he walked with the hikoi all the way from Te Rerenga Wairua to Wellington. By the time the hikoi arrived in Wellington his shoes had worn away to almost nothing. This brings me to a point I want to make. This hikoi was so small, in comparison to the 2004 hikoi that is, because people just could not afford to march. In the current economic environment our people cannot afford to drop everything and march on Parliament. Not anymore.

Hopefully something will come of this hikoi. Not necessarily a backdown on the MCA bill. But perhaps it may awaken Maori political consciousness. This hikoi should not have been for nothing.

On Hone Harawira's new party

From Stuff.co.nz:

The chances of a broad-based Left-wing party rising from the ashes of Hone Harawira's meltdown with the Maori Party have been dashed after he made it clear that any group he led would have to be Maori-focused.

So Hone has announced that any new party he forms will be Maori focussed. I do not think this necessarily precludes the possibility that the party will be broadly left wing. Certainly tino rangatiratanga finds a natural ally in the left - the recognition of indigenous rights is almost the exclusive domain of the left in fact. Hone appreciates this. In this post I want to discuss why Hone Harawira must launch a broad left wing party rather than a single issue alternative Maori party.

If Hone were to form an alternative Maori party he must, in the interest of electoral success, destroy the current Maori Party. The numbers required to sustain both a left wing Maori party and a right wing Maori party do not exist. The Party vote for the current Maori Party is already exceedingly low and it is fair to assume that there is little potential to tap new and existing, yet inactive, voters. The Green Maori vote is also exceedingly low. The Labour Maori vote remains significant yet there are dangers in attempting to bite a piece off of the Labour Party. For the moment, Hone needs the Labour Party in terms of support in the House and around Parliament. Any new party Hone forms will also be ideologically tied to Labour. Now if Hone were to pursue the Labour Maori vote Labour could respond in kind and attempt to stymie Hone. Erect barriers in an attempt to protect their voter base. For example Labour, if threatened, could silence Hone in the House by refusing to offer him anymore speaking slots. Cut off his oxygen supply essentially. Hones best options is to target the politically inactive. The constituency exists and I firmly believe Hone, in cohort with Matt McCarten, is, or are, the people to finally reach out to that untapped market often called the underclass.  

Most people can list three or four political values and issues that mean a lot to them. The reality is that most people will not list flags on bridges, international treaties and customary rights near the top. The cost of living, wages and welfare will come out near the top of most lists, therefore it is crucial that Hone take a broader view. The current Maori Party continues to collect a considerable amount of criticism for the party’s perceived focus on symbolic wins as opposed to substantive wins. This should signal to Hone that a focus on Maori values such as the recognition of some rights is not enough to placate Maori. At the end of the day Maori, like everyone else, want to enjoy a higher standard of living, job security etc. And of course the underclass, I loathe the connotations of that word but it is the common designation we all understand, is not exclusively Maori. The underclass consists of the working poor, Pakeha beneficiaries and in many cases Pakeha pensioners. With this in mind it becomes clear that the pitch must be much wider. Although any new party Hone launches will not rely on the party vote, for the time being that is, if Hone wants to drag any new MP’s in with him he must ensure his messages, policies etc resonate with a wide audience.  

Hone is not stupid and I think he knows that there is no room for an alternative Maori party, the political marketplace is already crammed and, as one commentator put it, an alternative Maori party will occupy a niche within a niche. All of this talk of a Maori focussed party is, in my opinion, a distraction. It is a call to action to Hone’s tino rangatiratanga supporters. These people will provide the rank and file foundations of a new party. Hone has already floated the names of his advisors - Matt McCarten, Willie Jackson, Sandra Lee etc – the administrative and logistical support already exists in the form of the Unite Union and former Maori Party staffers as well. Therefore, all that is needed now is the 500 person membership quota. For that reason Hone is touring the country talking about this Maori focussed party because he needs to attract the already politically active i.e. current and former Maori Party supporters. No use targeting the politically inactive just yet.

What is also interesting is Sue Bradfords attempts to not so much distance herself from the new party but rather talk down her enthusiasm. Hone and Sue are close personal friends and I have no doubt that the two have been working closely over the past few months so naturally I cannot quite figure out why she is attempting to down play the whole thing.

The most widely cited danger in forming a new left party is the effect it will have on the Green Party. In my opinion these concerns are largely unfounded. The Greens target the urban middle class vote whereas any party Hone forms will target, as I have said, the underclass. The two parties will play to completely different voter bases. Admittedly a new left party could attract the social activists among the Greens. These people are few and far between though and the environmental aspect of the Greens is a strong pull in their favour. A vote for the Greens is a vote for 21^st century eco-capitalism, a vote for Hone’s new party is a vote for social democracy. The two are not similar and the overlap will be minimal.

Hopefully I can attend one of Hone’s hui, although I think he has already held his Wellington hui? It will be interesting to hear what he has to say and then solidify or reform my thoughts. In any event I hope he will opt for a broad left wing party. The Maori Party serves its purpose and the left is in dire need of a real left party. But most of all the underclass needs a voice. Our democracy and our society will be stronger for it.   

Goff down, Labour up

The Te Karere digi-poll has confirmed Maori support remains with Labour and the Maori Party. 36.9% of respondents indicated they would vote Labour, 36.2% the Maori Party, 16.8% National, 4.5% Greens, 2.3% NZ First.

Labour has been bleeding Maori support for a number of years however the Party should be pleased that the trend appears to have floored. The biggest worry for Goff and the Party hierarchy is that 26.8% of respondents named John Key as their preferred Prime Minister. This indicates that many Labour Party supporters actually prefer the opposing team’s leader. There is a concrete perception among Maori that Goff is not in touch with Maori issues. Certainly his Nationhood speech encouraged the perception that he is openly hostile towards Maori aspirations. I still do not think this adequately explains why the Prime Minister has such high approval ratings. I guess some of it may come down to the power of ‘Brand Key’ and the utter impotency of ‘Brand Goff’. Either way Goff should lose no sleep over this - Labour is still the party of choice among Maori.

The poll was conducted in January, before the Maori Party schism I presume, therefore it is hard to know how much support, if any, the Maori Party has lost. Labour would hope to pick up any dissatisfied Maori Party members but this is unlikely. Hone’s followers make up the far left of the Party and the Maori Nationalist faction. The far left will naturally move to the Greens while the Maori Nationalist faction will not support any party that does not have tino rangatiratanga at its centre. Political apathy would most likely claim any exodus of Maori Nationalists.

This poll should be a wake up call for the Greens. The Greens are a natural political vehicle for Maori however support languishes at 4.5%. Many of the Party’s values are analogous with Maori values, for example kaitiakitanga, while one of the co-leaders is a wahine Maori of considerable mana. Ideally the Greens should be aiming for 5 – 10% support among Maori. The Greens speak urban middle class, a language Maori do not connect with so well, but green speak is analogous with Maori. The Greens need to connect the two.

National should not be worried. If anything support is high. New Zealand First should be able to leech some Maori support from Labour and National (nothing significant though).

To sum up the big winners in this poll are John Key, The Labour Party, and tentatively the Maori Party (remember we do not know if the party lost any support in the wake of the latest schism). The losers are the Greens and Phil Goff.