Native Affairs post-election special

If you didn’t watch Native Affairs last night, you should. In their last show for the year, and probably the best of the year, Julian and Annabelle hosted a raft of MPs and a brilliant panel (minus Mike King who was pretty bad).

Julian interviewed Pita Sharples, Winston Peters, Hone Harawira, Shane Jones, Meteria Turei, Rino Tirikatene, Simon Bridges and Louisa Wall. Annabelle discussed the interviews with Sandra Lee, Matt McCarten and Mike King. I don’t want to have a moan about Mike King, but I can’t let it slide that following Meteria’s interview King admitted to having never seen Meteria in action before. Even worse King then proceeded to speak of Meteria as if he’s never seen a sharp Maori women nor ever expected to see one. Prior to that King was salivating all over Winston again, just like he did on Saturday night.

Anyway, Pita Sharples came across as despondent. He found himself having to defend why the Maori Party lost a seat, had their party vote slashed and majorities in their remaining electorates slashed. Pita did have the good sense to admit the party’s relationship with National contributed to, or is still contributing to, the decline of the Maori Party.

Winston was, well he was Winston. Hugely charismatic, likeable in a mischief way and abrasive. Winston touched on good themes, for example poverty and asset sales, but he reverted to attacking the media when it wasn’t justified. He tried to dump Maori TV in the same basket as the mainstream media which was, in my opinion, patently unfair and a great way to burn bridges. After all, the Maori media have given Winston fair and consistent coverage.

Hone, true to form, gave a good interview. He was upfront and he added a dash of humour. Nothing really stood out.

Shane Jones. What a waste. The panel pointed out Shane was the first Labour MP to give an honest account of their loss. He didn’t sugar coat it, he didn’t repeat Labour’s lines, he called it as he saw it. 3 out 4 New Zealanders didn’t vote Labour (discounting the one million who didn’t vote) and that’s a problem they need to address.

Meteria Turei was the best performer of the night. As Mike King found out, Meteria is hugely intelligent, incredibly articulate and she’s pretty charismatic. The best Maori leader in Parliament in my opinion. Every thing was to the point and she didn’t deviate from the script.

Rino was given a soft interview and still seems like the win is yet to sink in. Julian almost caught Rino out when he put the proposition to him that would he support Ngai Tahu if they want to snap up SOEs. Rino seemed surprised and quickly stated Labour’s position.

Simon Bridges and Louisa Wall appeared together. Both MPs won huge majorities in their respective electorates. Louisa is the first Maori woman from Labour to win a general electorate and Simon is one of National’s best, no the best, Maori MP. Yes, better than Hekia Parata. In Mike King’s best call of the night he called Simon on his smugness. Mike correctly identified that NZders hate smug politicians, or smug people in general actually.The panel agreed Simon is a future leader of the National Party and maybe the first Maori Prime Minister. Agreed.

Mana: a discussion

John Moore has done some great work analysing the Mana Movement. His latest post at Liberation is a must read. This from the post itself:

Guest blogger John Moore argues that the selection of Kereama Pene represents the marginalisation of the left within the Mana Party. For although the party appears radical on paper, in reality a number of Mana’s leaders aim to cut deals and form alliances with parties that would have little interest in Mana’s ‘socialist’ policies. Therefore, the selection of Karema Pene sends a signal that Mana is both ideologically flexible and that the party’s socialists are being kept on a tight leach. All of this amounts to the attempt by a section of Mana’s leadership to present the party as respectable and non-threatening. So, is the game up for Mana’s left?

What needs to be understood is that the left in Mana is a minority, albeit an influential minority. The party’s rank and file, or the flaxroot if you will, consists almost exclusively of ex-Maori Party members and young Maori with a tino rangatiratanga bent. There is a scattering of socialists and political newbies (mainly Maori). The left do not have the strength of numbers at the base of the party to exercise any influence on decisions like candidate selection, policy remits etc.

As Matt McCarten takes a step back Gerard Hehir is taking a step forward. Gerard’s presence and prominence in the party ensures that the left punch above their weight in the party. Hone has a great deal of respect for Gerard and the work he does for Mana.

The marriage between Hone and Matt, read Maori nationalism and socialism, is one of convenience. Mana Movement satisfies both men’s ambitions. Matt serves to extend Hone’s electoral base while Hone provides the genesis for Matt’s dream of building a working class movement. However, both men share a similar political outlook. Hone is the product of a Maori nationalist upbringing, but he is intuitively left-wing (as are most Maori nationalists). Matt is the product of an underclass upbringing, but he maintains an intuitive Maori nationalist streak.  

Hone knows that he will not build the movement he dreams of without extending his base beyond hardcore Maori nationalists. Therefore, he will not allow the left to be marginalised. I think the decision was made not to veto Pene’s selection because Hone, and his advisers like Hehir and McCarten, felt that it did not pose a serious threat to the role of the left in the party.

An examination of Mana’s policy reveals a leftist bent. As I’ve said before the party’s policy platform is almost devoid of any tino rangatiratanga type policy.

I can almost guarantee that Hone will not enter a coalition government in the medium term. I say this because Hone has told me as much. Of course, circumstances change and so do a person’s intentions, but at this stage Hone appears unlikely to even consider lending support on a coalition or confidence and supply basis to any government. Mana is aiming in the short term to renter Parliament with, hopefully, two extra MPs - Annette Sykes and John Minto (and if things go better than expected Sue Bradford). In the medium term the party hopes to build a sustainable movement. Building a sustainable movement includes extending the party membership and implementing a succession plan. As an aside Maori politics specialist Veronica Tawhai is leading the party’s succession plan. In the long term the party will, inevitably, enter government. Forcing change from the streets is a nice concept, but a far fetched one in my opinion and Hone and co. know this. There are so many variables and the opposition (capitalism) is so overwhelming. Furthermore, Mana does not have the intellectual grunt at the moment to put forward a viable alternative to the current system.

Mana has a long way to go yet. The contradictions, nuances and ultimate direction of the party are yet to be settled. This is the nature of a new movement. In the mean time we can analyse and predict where the party is and will head, but, ultimately, we just don’t know enough yet.

  

Bradford for Mana

Sue Bradford has finally confirmed she will stand in Waitakere. From the NZ Herald:

Former Green MP Sue Bradford will stand for the Mana Party in Waitakere - but will seek the party vote only to increase Labour's chances of taking the seat back from National's Paula Bennett.

Ms Bradford was formally selected by Mana to stand in the seat yesterday.

She said there was a risk she would split the vote on the left, but she intended to make it clear she only wanted the party vote for Mana in the electorate.

This is part of Mana’s media strategy: Stand high profile candidates in tight electorates and, consequently, generate continuous headlines. Given that Mana missed out on broadcast funding failed to apply, they needed to investigate other ways to generate publicity.

Sue will be ranked at number four (Annette will be two and John Minto three). Sue will be a useful addition to Mana. Hone and Annette are primarily concerned with tino rangatiratanga, Matt McCarten and his people are primarily concerned with revolutionary politics and economic reform, Sue, however, is concerned with bread and butter social justice issues, for example restoring benefits to a humane level.

Hopefully Sue pushes Mana to take up a formal position on issues like abortion, gay marriage and women’s rights.     

Mana Party AGM

The Mana Party AGM was held over the weekend in Auckland. I don't have time to write a substantive post so I’ll list a few observations I’ve made (for the record I did not attend):

·         Mana is Maori led, but working class focussed. Two socialist (McCarten and Minto) and two Maori nationalists (Harawira and Sykes) form the head of the party. Tim Selwyn attributes this to Matt McCarten attempting to reconcile the two factions of the party – a smart move in my opinion. 

·         Mana will target the party vote. Mana will hope to attract disgruntled Green/Labour voters, the entire Maori Party vote and non-voters. 

·         Mana will stand in all seven Maori seats. Mana will hope to stand high profile candidates who can create talking points. Mana does not expect to win all of the electorates; rather the party sees standing in all seven electorates as a profile building exercise. 

·         Mana risks becoming a party of recycled politicians. The top brass of the party reads like a socialist party from the 80’s – Bradford, McCarten, Minto, Jackson – these guys are yesterday’s (wo)men. Sure, they have a part to play, but Mana needs an injection of new blood to remain relevant and avoid been labelled a party of old hacks. 

·         Mana enjoys access to a brilliant policy team which includes academic Veronica Tawhai and the amazing Jane Kelsey (I hope she is a top 5 list candidate). 

·         Mana is relying on prominent Unite members, for example Gerard Hehir, for strategic advice and campaigning infrastructure/expertise. 

·         Mana branches are now established all over the country, however most branches seem to be concentrated in the upper half of the North Island. 

·         Mana must attract experts. It is difficult to attract Maori political specialists because most, if not all, are working for existing parties and are, as a result, loyal to those parties. Mana does not have the money, or at least I think they don’t, to employ contractors. The party, therefore, needs to woo people who are ideologically sympathetic, for example former Alliance operators like Chris Ford.

·         Mana will stand candidates in general electorates where those candidates have a realistic chance of attracting votes and building the party’s profile. All candidates will stand at their own expense. 

·         Angeline Greensill may have another go in Hauraki-Waikato and Annette Sykes is sure to stand in Waiariki.  

The Mana Party

The Mana Party is here. I know I promised to blog on the Mana Party sooner, but a few things got in the way. However, I’ve found a bit of time to coalesce my thoughts. Given that I felt obligated to blog on the Mana Party this is a rushed job so apologies in advance for the length, any mistakes and the lack of links. 

In this post I want to discuss the Mana Party’s policy positions, whether the party will target the party vote or the Maori electorates and whether or not such a strange collection of ideologically dissimilar activists will hold. I will then move on to whether I think the party will meet success (in terms of the party vote and the Maori seats) what it all means for Maori voters. I will not cover the byelection.

POLICY

In terms of policy, we know very little beyond a few broad positions. The Mana Party will, at this stage, introduce a capital gains tax, institute a financial transactions tax (dubbed the Hone Heke tax) and remove GST. The Mana Party will also nationalise monopolies and duopolies, evaluate Kiwisaver and move to strengthen unions.

The above positions represent the Mana Party’s core policy platform – at this stage at least. In my opinion the above is striking for a lack of clearly identifiable Maori policy. There is no mention of the Treaty, no policy directly targeted at Maori - there is little mention of Maori at all actually. This seems odd given that the Mana Party is, well supposedly at least, a “Maori led” and “Maori focussed” Party. However, with that aside I think it is still fair to describe the Mana Party’s positions as hard left.

To be honest, I am surprised that the Mana Party is focussing on class politics. The movement that underpins the Mana Party is firmly rooted in identity politics, however the party’s policy does not seem to reflect this. Identity politics dominated the last decade, however Hone, no doubt at the behest of Matt McCarten, is pushing policy firmly set along class lines. Unions, progressive taxes and so on all speak to the working class. The above policy is firmly aligned with the working poor and beneficiaries.

Many commentators believe the Mana Party has not departed from ethnic based politics. Although I agree somewhat, if one were to consider Mana Party policy only then it becomes clear that this is not the case. The party appears, at this stage, to be focussing on working class concerns, such the 90 day right to sack law. I have not heard nor seen any policy with regard to tino rangatiratanga. The Mana Party’s policy positions seem to reject Maori concerns in favour of a socialist agenda. 

So where does the Mana Party fit on the political spectrum? To the far left in my opinion. There is space on the political spectrum for a far left party. The Maori Party sits on both sides, the Greens appear to be shifting rightwards while the Labour Party occupies the centre or the soft left. I largely agree with Joshua at Maori Law and Politics who points out that the Mana Party more closely “resembles the Alliance… than it does the Maori Party”. 

In terms of parliamentary discourse advocating a capital gains tax is a progressive suggestion. In terms of mainstream political discourse advocating a financial transactions tax is almost radical. Removing GST is, again, a progressive suggestion. GST is a regressive tax and others have called for the tax to be decreased or removed.  On the other hand nationalising monopolies and duopolies is an innovative suggestion in terms of contemporary parliamentary discourse. However, where I say innovative others may say “extreme” or “radical”.

Personally, I do not quite know what to make of the Mana Party’s policy. I am inclined to say Hone has had something of an epiphany and warmed to working class liberalism. However, I tend to doubt this. It is fair to say Hone has always been an advocate for the poor, but he is a Maori nationalist before he is a working class hero. He believes in Maori customary rights and customary ownership. He believes Maori did not surrender sovereignty in 1840. I therefore find it odd that he has, apparently, ditched all of this in favour of, for lack of a better expression, the aspirations of the radical Pakeha left. This is not to say the policy the Mana Party is advocating will not benefit Maori, I overwhelmingly think it will, I just find it odd that Hone’s priorities have shifted. I would speculate that it signals that Hone is not in complete control of the party and/or the likes of Sue Bradford and Matt McCarten have influenced Hone’s perspective. I tend to think both hold true. Hone surely has the last say, but Matt controls the details in my opinion.

Therefore, policy wise, the Mana Party is about as left as they come. The party mixes the progressive with the radical.  There is a clear focus on workers and the poor.

THE PARTY VOTE OR THE MAORI SEATS?

The Mana Party will almost certainly target the party vote. I tend to think Hone and Matt want to stand candidates in the Maori electorates, but they will not pre-empt the Maori Party who have indicated that they will stand a candidate against Harawira in the upcoming byelection or the election proper. Matt McCarten is no fool, and neither is Hone for that matter, both know that there is little chance attracting existing voters. The Labour vote currently represents the party’s core, the Greens maintain a fairly loyal following and most Green voters, in my opinion anyway, represent 21^st century liberalism rather than the old school leftism the Mana Party appears to be emulating and there are not many votes to suck from Alliance. The only market where the Mana Party will enjoy success is among tino rangatiratanga voters, also known as Maori Party voters. Ultimately, Hone’s appeal is confined to a small group of far lefties, tino rangatiratanga advocates and the politically apathetic, meaning the poor, marginalised etc… 

The Mana Party will have to target the young and the politically apathetic/inactive. With little room to tap existing voters the Mana Party will have to look towards the new and the indifferent.

However, the party could always turn to electorates seats. I cannot think of a general electorate where the Mana Party will have any chance. The Maori electorates are a different story though. The Maori Party appears set to tear up their agreement with Hone and stand a candidate in Te Tai Tokerau. The Mana Party could then, theoretically, stand in every seat and win. That’s a potential six seats.

Of course the Mana Party will probably focus on both the party vote and the Maori seats. Cover both bases. No harm in doing so really. Of course there is a financial barrier and the party’s target audience do not have deep pockets. Realistically, the party will have to focus on either the party or vote or the Maori seats or, alternatively, run a limited campaign in the Maori seats or the party vote. I tend to think the Mana Party will run a limited campaign in the Maori seats. Maybe contest Te Tai Tokerau, Waiariki, Hauraki-Waikato and Ikaroa-Rawhiti only. It is clear that the Mana Party seeks to be more than just a kaupapa Maori party, therefore a wider mandate than just the Maori seats is required for the party to act with any mana.

The advantage Hone Harawira enjoys is that he speaks to a constituency that other parliamentary parties cannot touch. The underclass, non voters and the absolutely marginalised. There is a deep well of dissatisfaction among these groups and Hone, I believe, has the ability to tap that well. The advantage Hone holds is that he knows how to communicate with these groups, to some extent he is one of them as well. He is clever but not intellectual, aggressive but not violent, ordinary but not average, kind but not soft. He maintains many virtues that will resonate with the poor, but more importantly he knows how to articulate their concerns.  

It is clear that the Mana Party is seeking a wider base than just Maori. The party’s policy is overwhelmingly targeted at the working poor, however the makeup of the party does not reflect the target audience.

THE PEOPLE

The Mana Party consists, by my reckoning at least, of two sorts of activists. Tino rangatiratanga activists and far left advocates. The tino rangatiratanga activists outnumber the far left advocates. Both sets of activists will be fighting for primacy. The tino rangatiratanga cluster will seek to elevate Maori concerns above left concerns and vice versa. At the moment the left branch appears to be conceding i.e. taking a backseat in public. However, the policy positions of the Mana Party tell a different story. Policy seems to reflect left concerns. On the other hand the public faces of the party are advocating Maori concerns.

There appears to be a divide between the substantive aspect of the party and the propaganda aspect of the party. The substantive aspect, read policy, appears to be directed from the left wing section of the party. While on the other hand the propaganda aspect of the party appears to be directed by the tino rangatiratanga section. For example the imagery associated with the party is Maori. The Mana logo is the typical red and black, two colours with prominent meaning for Maori and the font is, in terms of character, consistent with Maori design. The party website also incorporates red and black while Maori is the default language.

There are a number of theoretical advantages to having a combination of lefties and Maori nationalists. Firstly, the lefties and the Maori nationalist group will, in theory, act as a two way moderating force. Having said that I must say this is unlikely in my opinion. It is hard enough putting two Maori in a room and asking them to agree on something let alone a Maori and a Pakeha with competeing priorities. Secondly, the Mana Party embodies, sort of, diversity of opinion and this will hopefully lead to a more robust policy discussion and a broader policy agenda. Thirdly, Matt McCarten, Sue Bradford and so on are the sort of people who will challenge Hone. I have always imagined Hone as the sort of person who does whatever the last person told him to. However, McCarten and co will act as a competent sounding board and will challenge Hone on some of his more extreme and unpalatable positions.

Common sense would dictate that such an uncompromising combination of interests is doomed to fail. Prima facie, I agree. But then again it just seems like an easy call to make and one that does not take into account the complexity of human interaction and determination of all involved to make this movement successful.

Ultimately, the danger comes when the inevitable ideological clash happens. It then becomes a question of whether or not those involved have the strength of character to compromise. I would say yes. I now think Hone appreciates that there is often a gap between rhetoric/desire and the political reality. If he compromises the Maori nationalists will follow. Matt McCarten is essentially a political pragmatist and if he compromises I believe the left group will follow. These two men are the pinnacle of the party – the two ideological leaders. 

WILL IT BE SUCCESSFUL?

Certainly – in the short term. Not so clear in the long term. Maori Party support is declining at a rate of knots. That decline will not flow towards Labour until they repent for the foreshore and seabed betrayal nor will it flow towards the Greens who continue to fail in articulating their message to Maori. The Mana Party is the default option and, arguably, the only other option (discounting right wing parties for obvious reasons).

If the Maori Party decides to stand against Hone either at the byelection or the election proper then the Maori seats become fair game for Hone. In my opinion the Mana Party will pick up Waiariki (assuming Annette Sykes stands) and retain Te Tai Tokerau.

The ultimate measure of success though will be how many inactive voters Mana can secure. If the Mana Party can mobilise the politically apathetic then the party would have succeeded in creating a permanent electoral force and securing their place as a serious political player. This is easier said than done of course. Matt McCarten’s Mana campaign illustrated that it is nearly impossible to mobilise inactive voters. However, we must keep in mind the fact that Mana was a byelection, the economic and social circumstances were less dire and Matt has probably learnt a number of valuable lessons that can be applied across the country. Ultimately, as I said, if anyone can speak to and mobilise the marginalised it is Hone Harawira. The man has a genuine rapport with the pohara and he knows exactly what they will respond to. The challenge then is not what messages do we run, but how do get the messages into their living rooms, their homes etc. The question will be how do we penetrate their lives?

The Mana Party is not representing a narrow set of interests either. Where the Maori Party is exclusively concerned with Maori issues and Maori policy, the Mana Party is concerned with a wider set of interests, for example working class concerns. This in turn means the Mana Party can draw upon a wider base. How much success the party will have in terms of securing a wider base is not yet known. For me it depends on whether or not Pakeha can overcome the barrier that a perceived ‘Maori party’ represents. There is for many Pakeha a psychological barrier to voting for a Maori party and there is also a more practical barrier – Hone Harawira. It will be hard for Pakeha, even the far left ones, to vote for a man who has displayed a fair amount of hostility towards their people.

We must consider another question when guessing at the possible success the Mana Party will enjoy. Will the such a group of disparate and competing interests hold? Will the lefties and the tino rangatiratanga group enjoy a stable relationship or will the party become factionalised? If internal disputes emerge then history shows the party is almost guaranteed to fail. My money is on the party holding - until they get within range of government. That is when the ideological disputes, the practical disputes and so on will come to the fore.

We cannot lose sight of the media either. The slurs have already begun. The media is attempting to portray the byelection as a ploy on Harawiras part to make a bit more cash and the imagery the media associates with Hone is always negative and sometimes scary. However, this matters for nothing. Hone’s voters don’t give a shit. Most probably don’t even watch the news let alone care what Jessica Mutch has to say about Hone Harawira.

Ultimately, the barometer will be how many inactive voters does the Mana Party secure. This will determine how successful the party is.   

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MAORI?

Where do I start?

Firstly, Maori now have more choice. Maori have a number of different choices all of which can be clearly distinguished. There is a kaupapa Maori party (the Maori Party), a centrists and tested party (the Labour Party) and an experimental and working class party (the Mana Party). The Greens and New Zealand First also factor in a less prominent position.

The Mana Party also pits Maori against Maori. The debate will without doubt divide many iwi, hapu and even whanau. Maori, as a collective, hate to see infighting. But then again tribal politics is often plagued with infighting, so I guess for some it is nothing new.

Hopefully, the Mana Party will lead to debate about where Maori sit in the political landscape. Maori political discourse is terribly thin and I welcome anything that stimulates discussion. Maori need to ask what is the nature of Maori political participation? Can we be placed adequately on the political spectrum? How do Maori want to engage in the political process, for example are we content with been passive bystanders or do we want to inject ourselves into the political class. What sort of policy platform best advances Maori aspirations and so on.

This brings me to an interesting point. It is clear that the Maori Party wishes to inject our own into the political class and the capitalist class. The Maori Party believes this is the best way forward – working within the system essentially. The Maori Party prescription is to take on the ruling class on their terms. While on the other hand the Mana Party remedy is to deconstruct the neoliberal framework that has given rise to the political elites and the capitalist class. The Mana Party and the Maori Party both believe in integrating our indigenous systems and values into a western framework. The difference is the two parties believe in a different western framework. The Maori Party is comfortable with neoliberalism while the Mana Party would institute a move towards a more socialist regime. Maori must choose very carefully.

Personally, I applaud the Maori Party on having a model to get Maori ahead. However, I do not like that model because often it comes at the expense of others. For example asset sales. Asset sales will undoubtedly benefit iwi, however that will come at the expense of other New Zealanders. Mainly the have nots. Our aspirations should not come at the expense of others – no matter how much we deserve to get ahead.    

FINAL THOUGHTS

There is a worrying divide forming among Maori. It is a divide between the haves and the have nots. This divide is embodied by the Maori Party and the Mana Party. It is a divide between iwi that have their settlements, their land trusts and their middle class and between iwi and urban Maori that do not. It is easier for those who do have to say Maori need to get out of, and I hate these terms, grievance mode and into development mode. I will use the example of my iwi, Ngati Awa, and urban Maori. We, as in Ngati Awa, have a growing middle class, a cultural and spiritual base that we retain, we have a number of successful hapu trusts and we have a Crown apology and a financial settlement. We can move because we have our closure, sort of, and we have capital to utilise to get ahead. Our connections to the whenua remain unbroken and our Ngati Awa tikanga and kawa remains. The same cannot be said about urban Maori. They have no settlement to invest in their futures, they have no connection to their traditional lands, their reo and tikanga is almost forgotten, their incomes are falling and the government is not correcting the wrong. How can these Maori be expected to get into development mode when they have nothing and the wounds of the past are still a substantial cause of anger and marginalisation. Urban Maori have no means of getting ahead as a people. The system and society still operates against them. They have no access to capital and their culture is lost. Now where I am going with this is that the Maori Party is siding with the haves while the Mana Party is siding with the have nots. 

This has probably always existed, however it is becoming more pronounced. Inequality between Maori is increasing and this cannot be tolerated. The Maori Party is increasing inequality, whereas the Mana Party will seek to rectify inequality among Maori – or at least that is how I see it.

I have not mentioned this yet and this section seems like a logical place. The Mana Party, contrary to what some commentators believe, is not trying to be a pan-Maori party. The Maori Party’s attempt at been such a party has failed in my opinion. That is why the Maori Party is currently representing a narrow set of interests i.e. the Maori capitalist class while the Mana Party is seeking to represent poor New Zealanders. Pan-Maori parties aren’t working at the moment.  

CONCLUSION

I am not so quick to write off the Mana Party. The party will have little trouble attracting members and grassroots activists and supporters. Ultimately, the Mana Party will probably succeed because the Maori Party has failed. The Maori Party has, and I repeat this unequivocally, failed as a kaupapa Maori party. The Maori Party is captured by a corporate agenda; the Maori Party serves the interests of the few. The Maori Party has lost sight of its people. The Maori Party is now the party of the likes of Wira Gardiner and Tuku Morgan – a party of the right. A party of the privileged and the disconnected. All of the rhetoric, all of the hope, all of the expectation and obligation has come to nothing. Even worse, the Maori Party has failed its own definition of success. Maori are worse off and continue to fall. This why Mana will succeed. Because Maori want and Maori need a genuine representative. People can throw around comments like “Hone is out of control’ and “Hone is a racist”. I think sentiment along these lines completely misrepresents and misreads Hone as he is today. Hone Harawira has grown up and he has surrounded himself with some of the sharpest political minds in New Zealand. He isn’t the arrogant idiot who flunked a meeting for some sightseeing in Paris anymore. He isn’t the idiot who fired off a disgusting email to an infamous kupapa anymore. Hone Harawira appreciates the weight of expectation he now carries and, ultimately, he understands what the daily slog is like for many Maori. This is what drives Hone. Hone knows he cannot afford to shit the bed and stuff it up for Maori. He has a job and he is going to get on with it. The media, the right, the racists and the Maori Party will not get in the way.  

On Hone Harawira's new party (again)

We all know Hone Harawira is a Maori nationalist. However, as I have said on numerous occasions, this does not preclude the possibility that Hone will form a broad left wing party. Although tino rangatiratanga is not entirely compatible with the notions and values of social democracy, it is not impossible to reconcile the two. For a more in depth discussion on why I think Hone will form a broad left wing party, as opposed to an alternative Maori party, see this post.

In this post I want to draw your attention to comments made by Annette Sykes:

Rotorua Maori lawyer Annette Sykes says Pakeha should have a major part to play in any new political party set up dissident MP Home Harawira.

She says the Maori and Pakeha heros that have emerged during the Christchurch quake are indicative of a new New Zealand that any new Maori political movement must incorporate.

This indicates, to me at least, that Annette, and surely by extension Hone, realise that an alternative Maori party is impractical. Annette knows that the numbers do not exist to support the Maori Party, an alternative Maori party, the Greens and of course Labour. Any new party will need to broaden its appeal. Matt McCarten, one of Hone’s advisors, also knows that an alternative Maori party will not work and any new party will require some amount of working class appeal and a focus on beneficiaries, both Maori and Pakeha.

The only circumstance in which an alternative Maori party makes any political sense is if the end goal is to destroy the current Maori Party. I feel that this is unlikely. Having said that Annette has given a soft indication that she may run against Te Ururoa in Waiariki. If she does, and she has not ruled it out, then I think it is safe to assume the end goal is to destroy the Maori Party. This would be terribly unwise. For all of their sins the Maori Party occupies a brilliant strategic niche and, in likelihood, will be in an incredibly strong position post-election.

Hone must realise that destroying the Maori Party also opens the door for the Nat’s to launch a full frontal attack on all things Maori. At the moment the Maori Party is a moderating force on the Nats. The Nats know that they cannot attack things Maori without backlash from their most reliable long-term coalition partner. With Act on its last legs and Dunne looking shaky in Ohariu the Nats realise that the Maori Party is their best shot in terms of governing into the future, therefore the party must be kept on side.  

Ultimately, I think Hone will form a new left party rather than an alternative Maori party. Consider what Matt McCarten has this to say:

If there was a contest I think Tariana Turia and Hone would be the only ones left standing. I think it would be a tragedy for Maori.

Matt knows and would have informed Hone that the only benefactors of an alternative Maori Party will be Labour. In Hone were to stand candidates in the other Maori electorates then Labour would storm home. It would be an epic strategic blunder.

The animosity between Hone and his former colleagues should not be underestimated. But ultimately both sides need to realise that politics is bigger than their egos.

On Hone Harawira's new party

From Stuff.co.nz:

The chances of a broad-based Left-wing party rising from the ashes of Hone Harawira's meltdown with the Maori Party have been dashed after he made it clear that any group he led would have to be Maori-focused.

So Hone has announced that any new party he forms will be Maori focussed. I do not think this necessarily precludes the possibility that the party will be broadly left wing. Certainly tino rangatiratanga finds a natural ally in the left - the recognition of indigenous rights is almost the exclusive domain of the left in fact. Hone appreciates this. In this post I want to discuss why Hone Harawira must launch a broad left wing party rather than a single issue alternative Maori party.

If Hone were to form an alternative Maori party he must, in the interest of electoral success, destroy the current Maori Party. The numbers required to sustain both a left wing Maori party and a right wing Maori party do not exist. The Party vote for the current Maori Party is already exceedingly low and it is fair to assume that there is little potential to tap new and existing, yet inactive, voters. The Green Maori vote is also exceedingly low. The Labour Maori vote remains significant yet there are dangers in attempting to bite a piece off of the Labour Party. For the moment, Hone needs the Labour Party in terms of support in the House and around Parliament. Any new party Hone forms will also be ideologically tied to Labour. Now if Hone were to pursue the Labour Maori vote Labour could respond in kind and attempt to stymie Hone. Erect barriers in an attempt to protect their voter base. For example Labour, if threatened, could silence Hone in the House by refusing to offer him anymore speaking slots. Cut off his oxygen supply essentially. Hones best options is to target the politically inactive. The constituency exists and I firmly believe Hone, in cohort with Matt McCarten, is, or are, the people to finally reach out to that untapped market often called the underclass.  

Most people can list three or four political values and issues that mean a lot to them. The reality is that most people will not list flags on bridges, international treaties and customary rights near the top. The cost of living, wages and welfare will come out near the top of most lists, therefore it is crucial that Hone take a broader view. The current Maori Party continues to collect a considerable amount of criticism for the party’s perceived focus on symbolic wins as opposed to substantive wins. This should signal to Hone that a focus on Maori values such as the recognition of some rights is not enough to placate Maori. At the end of the day Maori, like everyone else, want to enjoy a higher standard of living, job security etc. And of course the underclass, I loathe the connotations of that word but it is the common designation we all understand, is not exclusively Maori. The underclass consists of the working poor, Pakeha beneficiaries and in many cases Pakeha pensioners. With this in mind it becomes clear that the pitch must be much wider. Although any new party Hone launches will not rely on the party vote, for the time being that is, if Hone wants to drag any new MP’s in with him he must ensure his messages, policies etc resonate with a wide audience.  

Hone is not stupid and I think he knows that there is no room for an alternative Maori party, the political marketplace is already crammed and, as one commentator put it, an alternative Maori party will occupy a niche within a niche. All of this talk of a Maori focussed party is, in my opinion, a distraction. It is a call to action to Hone’s tino rangatiratanga supporters. These people will provide the rank and file foundations of a new party. Hone has already floated the names of his advisors - Matt McCarten, Willie Jackson, Sandra Lee etc – the administrative and logistical support already exists in the form of the Unite Union and former Maori Party staffers as well. Therefore, all that is needed now is the 500 person membership quota. For that reason Hone is touring the country talking about this Maori focussed party because he needs to attract the already politically active i.e. current and former Maori Party supporters. No use targeting the politically inactive just yet.

What is also interesting is Sue Bradfords attempts to not so much distance herself from the new party but rather talk down her enthusiasm. Hone and Sue are close personal friends and I have no doubt that the two have been working closely over the past few months so naturally I cannot quite figure out why she is attempting to down play the whole thing.

The most widely cited danger in forming a new left party is the effect it will have on the Green Party. In my opinion these concerns are largely unfounded. The Greens target the urban middle class vote whereas any party Hone forms will target, as I have said, the underclass. The two parties will play to completely different voter bases. Admittedly a new left party could attract the social activists among the Greens. These people are few and far between though and the environmental aspect of the Greens is a strong pull in their favour. A vote for the Greens is a vote for 21^st century eco-capitalism, a vote for Hone’s new party is a vote for social democracy. The two are not similar and the overlap will be minimal.

Hopefully I can attend one of Hone’s hui, although I think he has already held his Wellington hui? It will be interesting to hear what he has to say and then solidify or reform my thoughts. In any event I hope he will opt for a broad left wing party. The Maori Party serves its purpose and the left is in dire need of a real left party. But most of all the underclass needs a voice. Our democracy and our society will be stronger for it.   

Matt McCarten on Hone Harawira

Matt McCarten, in an excellent piece in The Herald on Sunday, has suggested that the Hone Harawira expulsion could determine the election. Matt, who is a close advisor to Hone, thinks Hone will form a new party and target the party vote. I guess this almost confirms that Hone will form a new party. However, I am unsure that Hone has the time, skills and support to form a new party. In a previous column Matt made it pretty clear that he is not involved in the formation of a new party. Sue Bradford appears to be in favour one minute and then downplays her enthusiasm the next. Without Matt’s involvement Hone will not be able to delegate the groundwork to a capable pair of hands. Parliamentary and electorate work is all consuming. Hone simply does not have the time to form and launch a new party without experienced operators like Matt and Sue Bradford. Another problem is Hone will find it hard to attract the administrative and political talent needed to form, launch and sustain a party. Let’s be honest, Hone will need the services of youngish, Pakeha, urban middle class administrators and political operatives, however attracting said talent will be difficult. This demographic is hardly responsive to some of Hone strongly held opinions.

But for arguments sake let’s say Hone does form a new party. Matt tells us Hone will run a campaign against the MCA bill, low wages, welfare reform, GST and mining. Matt thinks these issues will mobilise support among Maori and non-Maori working class folk. I am not so sure. Matt’s showed us in Mana that mobilising the poor, not so much the working poor rather beneficiaries, is near impossible. Of the above campaign issues only the MCA bill and mining have proved widely contentious. However, mining was a middle class issue in that it mobilised the middle class, the poor were, well visibly at least, indifferent. Furthermore, the MCA bill has proven more of a Maori concern. Pakeha concern is comparatively light – with the exception of a few rednecks. With the above in mind it becomes obvious that the MCA bill and mining, the two big issues if you like, play to contrasting groups. Low wages, welfare reform and GST have failed to elicit a whisper from those most affected. Without doubt the working poor and beneficiaries are feeling or will feel the bite but there is simply no response. How will Hone ignite and organise a response to these changes? The poor are politically apathetic and apathy has no straightforward cure. Having said that if there is anyone who can speak to the poor and disaffected it is Hone Harawira. I should not write him off so easily.

Matt also suggests that Pita Sharples and Rahui Katene will find it difficult to retain their seats without Hone’s endorsement. Again, I think this is goes a bit far. Pita is damaged but no more than Shane Jones. Shane is hardly an endearing figure and Maori will not return to Labour so easily. Maori are excellent strategic voters and there is really no benefit in returning Shane Jones as the member for Tamaki Makaurau. Hone’s supporters are not going to vote for a man who labels their man a “hoodlum”. Ultimately the voters of Tamaki Makaurau have a shit choice – Shane’s vision is a corporate vision with working class overtones. Pita’s vision is a Maori vision hijacked by a corporate agenda. So it’s basically a contest between which corporate you like best. Arrogant and abrasive Jones or affable and approachable Sharples? The choice is clear. (I will address Rahui Katene and Te Tai Tonga in my next post).

The constituency for a new left party exists. The challenge is to mobilise that constituency. I would love to see a new left party with Hone and Sue Bradford, the two most effective backbenchers in recent memory, and Matt McCarten, the most skilled operator in NZ politics. However, I worry that the practical challenges a new party would face are too great. I hope I’m wrong.

C'mon Tariana

From Waatea News;

Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia says the party is prepared to live with any electoral fall-out from its wrangles with rebel Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira.

Political commentator Matt McCarten has suggested Mrs Turia and Mr Harawira may be the only two Maori Party MPs left standing after the election, as the row over whether the party is right to support the National government affects support in the wider Maori population.

Mrs Turia says the comments by the former Alliance president should be read in the context that he has been advising Mr Harawira behind the scenes.

“He has a bias and he is showing it. As far as we’re concerned, and we can only guage it by what the electorates are reporting back to us, it is true we will lose some members and it is also true we will gain some members,” she says.

Mrs Turia says the Maori Party leadership is not letting the complaint against Hone Harawira divert its attention from other important work needing to be done.

Firstly, I think Matt is wrong in this instance. Pita is fairly secure in Tamaki Makaurau while Te Ururoa Flavell, although less secure, will prove hard to dislodge. Shane Jones will struggle to pull back Pita's majority in the electorate. I have always thought Pita enjoys more of a personal rather than political following in the electorate, therefore The Maori Party’s political decisions will have a negligible effect on voter behaviour. On the other hand Te Ururoa does not enjoy a personal following rather an iwi following. Te Arawa will vote for their man while some other iwi within the Waiariki electorate, for example Tuhoe and Ngati Awa, casually endorse him. Mita Ririnui has signalled that he will stand down following the election, hopefully Labour stand a credible candidate with the connections and intellect required to really challenge Te Ururoa. Personally, I would like to see Annette Sykes stand (not for Labour though). I have already outlined in a previous post that I think Rino Tirakatene will snatch Te Tai Tonga. Rahui has failed to impress, although she does well as Tariana’s minion. I think Ngai Tahu endorsement is one of the keys to success in Te Tai Tonga. I do not know which way Ngai Tahu is leaning but given their opposition to the MCA bill one could assume favourable feeling towards The Maori Party is limited. I am curious to know what Marty Mars, who is more qualified to speak on Te Tai Tonga issues, thinks.

Secondly, Turia is correct, Matt has been advising Hone and for some I believe. Perhaps this gives credibility to the new left wing party rumours. More than likely it is just Matt offering help to a personal friend. Where Turia errs is in suggesting Matt’s column is spin. That is an overly cynical and politically charged suggestion that I do not even think Turia believes. Reading over the column even the most partisan supporter would admit the column is astute.  

Thirdly, expecting to gain members is wildly optimistic. The Maori Party’s brand is tarnished. The perception that the party is ‘selling-out’ is firmly rooted among Maori and non-Maori too. Reversing that perception will take many months. The word kupapa is often thrown about when discussing The Maori Party. Obviously, there is a depth of negative emotion surrounding the party – who would want to associate with such a party? The party is beginning to resemble electoral poison.

Lastly, Turia speaks of “other important work needing to be done”. Ahhh, and what work is that? Prison privatisation? Asset sales? Weakening work rights (90 day law)? Dumping huge costs on already struggling Maori families (ETS, ACC changes etc)?

Or were you referring to doing something about the Maori unemployment rate? The shocking Maori health statistics? Violence in the Maori community? Child poverty? Maori failing in the education system?

I wonder, but something tells me you had the first list in mind.

On Hone Harawira forming a new party

Some left wing commentators, namely Martyn Bradbury, are pushing the idea that Hone Harawira should, whether he is expelled or not, form a new left wing party. I see a number of problems with this idea.

Every party has a recognised identity. The question is will Hone, as a Maori nationalist, fit within the identity of a far left party comprised of rejected social democrats? Will he fit within a party that’s stands for certain political values above and beyond tino rangatiratanga? With this in mind it is conceivable that stern tensions will exist, and at some point erupt, over the policy priorities and direction of the party. Willie Jackson makes the point that Maori interests “might not always fall within a left wing paradigm”. The left is not always automatically analogous with Maori interests. Essentially, I do not think Hone is flexible enough in his ideology to accept working within the framework of a far left party nor sufficiently interested in responding to the needs of the constituents of the far left.   

It is probably also worth considering the personalities involved. Matt McCarten and Hone Harawira are the two strongest personalities in politics, no doubt about that. Although Matt is incredibly principled he is a pragmatist first. He knows the importance of electoral success. On the other hand Hone is principled first and pragmatic second. What happens when Matt’s pragmatism clashes with Hone’s principles? A party meltdown in my opinion. Hone will no longer compromise his principles for short term electoral or governmental success whereas Matt knows the importance of winning at any cost. Matt is a realist and values power. Hone is an idealist who values tino rangatiratanga. Such a clash of values will hardly breed stability.

Marty Mars and Willie Jackson have floated the idea of Hone forming an alternative Maori Party. An alternative Maori party will have to convince Maori that they, unlike the original Maori Party, will not sacrifice Maori interests for short term gain in government (i.e. they will not swallow National’s poison), therefore they are ultimately better representatives of Maori interests.

The problem with an alternative Maori party is that it will have no resources. Let’s be honest, Hone’s supporters hardly have deep pockets. It is also unknown how many rank and file members would jump waka. Enough to constitute a registered party (I think 500 members are required)? Without competent and experienced managers the formation of a new party is a logistical nightmare. Under a new left party the ground work can be left to Matt McCarten but under a new Maori party who would Hone delegate too? Furthermore, where will advisors and administrators come from and who would be willing to stand for such a party?

I think I would prefer to see Hone Harawira stand as an independent for now. It is too late in the piece to go pulling political parties out of your arse. As an independent Hone could create a strong narrative. Portraying himself as a man of integrity, alienated for speaking truth to power, denouncing, as Gordon Campbell put it, the brown sell outs in Cabinet. Against this the MP have no effective counter narrative. However, if Hone were to form a new left party or new Maori party the current Maori Party could taint him as a prostitute to politicians of yesteryear or a trouble maker with only conflict on his mind.

So there are problems with Hone hitching it with a new left party or pitching into a new Maori party. Either way Hone does not have many favourable options on the table. Perhaps his best choice is to stand as an independent. To be honest I wouldn’t know. This is all speculation. I'm just hoping for resolution and hopefully that resolution will not involve expulsion.