Bad polling

I posted this in the comments section of another post, however I think it deserves a wider audience so I've copied and pasted here. These are the poll results from the election period Te Karere Digipolls compared with the actual results. Like I've said earlier, it shows that the polls were well out. I've rounded the numbers and have only included the main candidates.


Te Tai Tokerau:

Digipoll – Hone 42
               Kelvin 35
               Waihoroi 20

Actual – Hone 43
              Kelvin 38
              Waihoroi 16


Fairly close resemblance between the poll and the actual results in this electorate. Certainly within the margin of error of 4.9% so we’ll give them this one. However...

Tamaki Makaurau: 

Digipoll – Pita 58
               Shane 23
               Kereama 14

Actual -  Pita 40
              Shane 36
              Kereama 16


This poll grossly overstated Pita Sharples’ support. Shit, it was well out. This poll did seem to confirm what many Maori political commentators were thinking though. I haven’t seen anyone come up with a satisfactory answer as to why Shane did so well. Maybe low turnout hurt Pita. With 16% of the vote Kereama Pene certainly did I guess.


Hauraki-Waikato:

No poll from Te Karere on this electorate but the Marae Digipoll from September put it like this.


Digipoll – Nanaia 59
               Angeline 18
               Tau Bruce 13

Actual – Nanaia 59
              Angeline 22
              Tau Bruce 17


A decent result from the Marae Digipoll. They correctly stated Nanaia’s support and were thereabouts with Angeline and Bruce Mataki of the Maori Party. Remember this poll did not factor in undecideds.


Waiariki:

Digipoll – Te Ururoa 56
                Annette 22
                Louis 22

Actual –  Te Ururoa 41
               Annette 30
               Louis 23


Again, this poll was well out. Well beyond the margin of error. The poll overstated Te Ururoa’s support by a country mile. This race was tight – not the cakewalk the poll was predicting. 

Correction: I had the wrong figures before - all corrected now. 

Ikaroa Rawhiti:

There was no Te Karere poll here too, but we’ll have a look at the Marae Digipoll results.


Digipoll – Parekura 40
               Na 49
               Tawhai 1

Actual – Parekura 62
              Na 24
              Tawhai 14


Wow. I don’t think any poll in the history of mankind has ever been this out of whack. However, it should be remembered that this poll was conducted in September and they phrased the questions oddly. Something like “which party will you give your candidate vote to” instead of saying “who will you give your candidate vote to” or something like that.


Te Tai Hauauru: 
No Te Karere poll here either. However, Marae Digipoll from September comes in handy.


Digipoll – Tariana 49
                Soraya 40
                Fred Timitimu 1
                Jack (didn’t register I don’t think).

Actual –  Tariana 48
               Soraya 30
               Fred 8
               Jack 11


Tariana’s support was about right, but the poll exaggerated Soraya’s support and barely even factored Fred Timutimu. Jack McDonald didn’t even feature in the Marae poll but polled 11% and he wasn’t even going for the electorate vote.


Te Tai Tonga:

Digipoll – Rahui 46
                Rino 35
                Dora 10
                Clinton 9

Actual –  Rahui 31
               Rino 42
               Dora 15
               Clinton 8


Again, way off. Well outside the margin of error. The poll got Clinton about right, but failed miserably in predicting the correct outcome and share of the vote.

The polls in the Maori electorates have failed. Theses poll failures follow the Native Affairs Baseline poll which failed to accurately predict the share of the vote each candidate would receive in the Tai Tokerau byelection. I don’t think I can ever take a poll on the Maori electorates seriously again. To be fair, the polls were conducted late October to mid November and things change at the last minute. Polls are, of course, snapshots of a moment in time. The moment these polls were picturing was spread across a significant period of time.

Lastly, I think the other criticisms I have made of polls in the Maori electorates still stand.

Te Tai Tonga, Sharples and Brash, Tainui and asset sales

I don’t have much time to blog this week so I’ll quickly comment on a few things I’ve missed over the last few days:


Te Tai Tonga

The latest Te Karere Digipoll puts Rahui Katene ahead of Labour’s Rino Tirikatene. Katene is on 46% to Tirikatene’s 35%. The last Te Karere poll put Tirikatene on 41% to Katene’s 34%. Hurricane Clinton Dearlove registers 9% support while the Green’s Dora Langsbury comes in with 10% support. I think the following has happened: 1) Katene has, realising it’s do or die, reenergised her campaign and reclaimed the momentum 2) Dearlove and Langsbury have siphoned more votes from Tirikatene than they have from Katene 3) Tirikatene is suffering from a swing against Labour. The seat is now 50/50. Whereas everyone was picking a win for Tirikatene, this isn’t so sure anymore. 

A Tirikatene win is certainly still possible. As Digipoll points out, Tirikatene’s older support base is far more likely to vote and younger voters, who strongly support Katene, usually change sides at the last minute. Jobs and asset sales also rank as important issues. This is where Tirikatene will be strong. No one can forget Katene going against the wishes of iwi in Te Tai Tonga, notably Ngai Tahu, and voting for the MCA Act as well. Meanwhile Katene is calling for better resourcing for Maori electorates. The Maori electorates are huge and there is a need for access to more staffers and more expense funding. Apparently Katene could do with three staffers. I say try six. Maori electorate MPs are allowed three staffers and an EA so I don’t know why Katene is saying she could do with three when she’s allowed three.


Pita Sharples vs Brash

The Maori Party continue the line that they need to be at the Cabinet table to oppose Don Brash. Firstly, the Maori Party sit outside of Cabinet – so they’re not really at the Cabinet table. If Act enter a formal coalition with National, rather than a confidence and supply agreement, then Brash will sit at the table (in a figurative and literal sense) to the exclusion of the Maori Party (because what are the chances they will enter a formal coalition). This makes the whole at the table rhetoric a little hollow.


Tainui support the Maori Party on asset sales

In an about turn Tuku Morgan has come out in support of the Maori Party’s stance on asset sales. Previously Tuku actively supported the sale of assets and iwi acquisition of those assets. However, Tuku now opposes asset sales, but should assets come on the market Tuku will look to invest. Tuku reckons that the Maori Party is looking out for the needs of Maori. If this isn’t an endorsement, then I don’t know what is. 

This is a blow for John Key. The Iwi Leadership Group were, at one point, one of the strongest advocates for asset sales. John Key is quickly losing his allies on this issue. Without Iwi support and the active opposition of Mana and the Maori Party the Nats won't be able to sell the idea to Maori. Not that they need Maori support.

Martin Cooper controversy

By all accounts Martin Cooper is a good guy and has done a lot for the community. Fair enough. He still abused his position and should suffer the consequences though. The Herald on Sunday followed up on their story from the week before this time revealing Cooper wanted to give some guy the bash or something.


Tamaki Makaurau debate

Four strong candidates. I like picking winners, unlike Joshua Hitchcock who has blogged a brilliant summary here, but I genuinely can’t pick one. Each candidate was strong in certain areas. No candidate did them or their parties a disservice let’s put it that way.

Te Karere Digipoll: Te Tai Tonga

Te Karere will be releasing some surprising poll results on Te Tai Tonga today. Tune into TV One at 4pm. On a separate note I don't imagine I'll have much time to blog this week so things will probably be a little quiet.  

Goff down, Labour up

The Te Karere digi-poll has confirmed Maori support remains with Labour and the Maori Party. 36.9% of respondents indicated they would vote Labour, 36.2% the Maori Party, 16.8% National, 4.5% Greens, 2.3% NZ First.

Labour has been bleeding Maori support for a number of years however the Party should be pleased that the trend appears to have floored. The biggest worry for Goff and the Party hierarchy is that 26.8% of respondents named John Key as their preferred Prime Minister. This indicates that many Labour Party supporters actually prefer the opposing team’s leader. There is a concrete perception among Maori that Goff is not in touch with Maori issues. Certainly his Nationhood speech encouraged the perception that he is openly hostile towards Maori aspirations. I still do not think this adequately explains why the Prime Minister has such high approval ratings. I guess some of it may come down to the power of ‘Brand Key’ and the utter impotency of ‘Brand Goff’. Either way Goff should lose no sleep over this - Labour is still the party of choice among Maori.

The poll was conducted in January, before the Maori Party schism I presume, therefore it is hard to know how much support, if any, the Maori Party has lost. Labour would hope to pick up any dissatisfied Maori Party members but this is unlikely. Hone’s followers make up the far left of the Party and the Maori Nationalist faction. The far left will naturally move to the Greens while the Maori Nationalist faction will not support any party that does not have tino rangatiratanga at its centre. Political apathy would most likely claim any exodus of Maori Nationalists.

This poll should be a wake up call for the Greens. The Greens are a natural political vehicle for Maori however support languishes at 4.5%. Many of the Party’s values are analogous with Maori values, for example kaitiakitanga, while one of the co-leaders is a wahine Maori of considerable mana. Ideally the Greens should be aiming for 5 – 10% support among Maori. The Greens speak urban middle class, a language Maori do not connect with so well, but green speak is analogous with Maori. The Greens need to connect the two.

National should not be worried. If anything support is high. New Zealand First should be able to leech some Maori support from Labour and National (nothing significant though).

To sum up the big winners in this poll are John Key, The Labour Party, and tentatively the Maori Party (remember we do not know if the party lost any support in the wake of the latest schism). The losers are the Greens and Phil Goff.